Bretty and the Jets hit the Bye Week in dramatic fashion when they disposed of the Cardinals, 56-35, two weeks ago. It marked the first time in QB Favre’s career that he tossed six touchdown passes in a game. A deeper look inside the Flyboys’ numbers, though, tells a different story. It seems this 2-2 squad has outgained only one opponent on the playing field (Miami, by 16 yards) and is ranked 31st (2nd worst) in the league in pass defense. That promises to be enough to awaken Carson Palmer and the Bengal passing game from its season-long slumber. Further assurance comes from our trusty database as it reminds us that 0-4 or worse winless road dogs are 43-21-4 ATS in non-division games since 1980. The Jets’ 1-9 ATS mark in October against non-division foes off a loss and Cincy’s 5-0ATS road dog log when winless from Game Two out versus a non-division foe (see Dallas last week) makes for a nice combination. Sorry Jets fans.
Wow! What a run. As if beating the Cowboys in Dallas (as a double-digit dog) wasn’t enough, the Redskins go into Philadelphia and beat the Eagles (as a touchdown dog). Their reward this week, should they decide to accept it, is to scale over a two-touchdown impost against a well-rested crew with a new coach and a fresh attitude. Gulp. Rest assured, it won’t be easy. For openers the Skins have failed three times in a row (SU and ATS) in games off a double-digit revenge victory when facing an opponent off back-to-back losses. Worse, they are 0-8 SU and ATS after beating the Eagles when facing a sub .667 opponent. FYI: they were favored in 7 of those games. Add in the Awesome Angle on page 2 and we would not be at all surprised should the Rams catch the Redskins taking a well-deserved nap today. To that we say bow-wow!
Jacksonville Plus over DENVER
Form takes on function in this setting and we’ll opt for the latter. That’s because the function of the Jaguars is to bounce back in a big way after blowing SU as a favorite the previous contest. That’s confi rmed by their 9-4 SU and 9-3-1 ATS mark in these games when installed as a dog or favorite of less than 4 points. They are also 9-0 ATS on the road off a spread loss of 10 or more points when taking on an opponent they beat in their most recent meeting. With Denver in lousy current form – a 4-1 squad that is allowing 390 YPG – look for the Broncos to dive to 0-10 ATS as a home favorite off a SU favorite win. Through geometric design we have built our case and it comes up Jacksonville.
Last Week: 0-1 Season: 6-5