North Texas over UTSA by 10

Roadrunners looked more like roadkill last week when they fell to Southern Miss as 10-point home chalk. So now they dress up as road favorites? We don’t think so! We warned you last week about UTSA’s phony 3-0 record (all three wins came against winless FBS foes and FCS weakling Southern) and North Texas is a far cut above that ilk, coming off back-to-back wins while scoring 46 and 43 points, respectively. The Mean Green will be eager to make amends for last year’s 31-17 loss at San Antonio, and the intuitive MIDWEEK ALERT informs us that UNT is currently out-stating foes by 110 YPG (they were -98 net YPG in 2016). More good news for the Green: the series host has won and covered three straight, and the ‘Runners arrive with a money-burning 2-6 ATS mark as chalk against avenging foes since joining the FBS, including 0-2 ATS away. And not only is North Texas 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven home dog roles against foes off a spread loss.

NAVY over Memphis by 8

The Middies blew an 18-point halftime lead over Air Force – and the cover – when they had to come from behind to beat the Falcons, 48- 45. Navy was outgained, 621-557, in last week’s 15-rounder against the Force but the swabbies still managed to remain unbeaten. As a result, they become a 5-0 FAT CATS (see last week’s SMART BOX) this afternoon at the Liberty Bowl – but in a good way as ‘dogs’. Now 3-0 in the AAC, the Middies are a leg-and-a-half up on the 1-1 Tigers in the West Division (also cracked this week’s AP Top 25). Meanwhile, Memphis is off to a stumbling 2-3 start in HC Mike Norvel’s second campaign and the Tigers’ 511-yard defense is 95 YPG worse than the Middies. That’s a big deal as the invading Midshipmen sail into port boasting the nation’s top rushing offense. Conference competition has not overpowered Navy, either, as the Mids are an impressive 17-3 SU and 12-6-2 ATS in the AAC since joining the loop in 2015. Our database reminds us that Memphis is 5-18-1 ATS in its last 20 games as single-digit favorites versus foes off an ATS loss. In addition, the Tigers have outstated two of their four opponents this season – Southern Illinois and UConn – while being outgained against UCLA (allowed Bruins season-high 633 yards) and UL Monroe.


KANSAS ST over Tcu by 3 The Froggies outlasted West Virginia in a 31-24 victory last week to stay undefeated, making them a 5-0 FAT CAT fade (see last week’s SMART BOX) here tojavascript:nullo()day. They were also outgained by 101 yards in the win. We’ll go against this 5-0 road favorite as the noose gets tighter and tighter away from home for these undefeated teams this time of the season. Normally, we’d be looking to fade the Wildcats following a double-OT loss at Texas last week, but the 5-0 Fat Cat Frogs – and the fact that KSU head coach Bill Snyder’s kids are not favored here today – puts us on KSU like Jamie Lannister on Cersie. Snyder knows a win here, plus an Oklahoma victory over Texas in today’s Red River Rivalry, puts them in a logjam tie atop the Big 12. Check the status of QB Jesse Ertz, hurt in last week’s Texas contest.


TAMPA BAY over Arizona by 4

Tampa Bay over ARIZONA by 4 If you thought the NY Giants have problems, then get in line behind the Cardinals as well. Bruce Arians’ birds have lost all 5 games ATS this season, while both of Zona’s wins have been in OT. In other words, they could well be 0-5 SUATS. Without star RB David Williams (the league’s top rusher, out for the year) the Cards running game has fallen off the map, averaging just 53 RYPG (worst in the league). The recent pickup of ancient Adrian Peterson from the Saints may help, but it still all falls on the arm and legs of ancient QB Carson Palmer, and that’s not a good formula. Arizona is 1-6 ATS in its 3rd home game of the season, and making matters worse, they are headed to London next week.Like the Rams above, NFL teams are 2-14 SU and 3-10-3 ATS as dogs in games before traveling to Buckingham Palace. The Buccaneers are 6-1 ATS away after scoring 14 or fewer points the last game, and 5-1 ATS following AFC opponents.