Despite recent road wins over North Carolina and Nebraska, Frank Beamer’s Hokies find themselves taking a pair of points from the Beantown Boys here, the first time that BC has been installed as chalk in 14 consecutive contests between these former Big East powers. Both teams enter off a bye week but the Eagles thrive in that role at home, posting a 6-1 ATS mark at Alumni Stadium following a week-long nap. Virginia Tech counters with a 5-0 spread record playing on the road against a conference foe seeking revenge (Hokies beat BC 30-16 in last year’s ACC title game) and also owns a superb 14-2 ATS mark away off a double-digit home victory over a lined non-conference foe. In truth, each team is backed by numerous positive pointspread trends but with Beamer showing up in his preferred role as road underdog (8-1 ATS L9) – and hungry for regular season double-revenge – we’ll gobble up whatever points we can get with the Hokies today.
Last Week: 4-0 Season: 16-6
Missouri Plus over TEXAS
The Longhorns’ scintillating win over No. 1 Oklahoma last Saturday was not only one of the most exciting college football games of the 2008 season, it also proved that a program devoid of high profile
superstars could play inspired TEAM football to topple an ‘unbeatable’ Sooners squad. And what reward does Bevo reap for accomplishing this stunning feat? A trio of gut-busting games against Missouri, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech! “It was one of the greatest football games I’ve ever seen,” said Texas coach Mack Brown after the heavyweight battle, a victory that could have historical
significance for the Longhorns. The last time Texas came out of the OU game undefeated (2005), it won the Rose Bowl and a National title. Well, don’t look for that to happen this year – not through the
treacherous Big 12 – and don’t be shocked if Bevo takes a stun gun to the forehead right here. BRILLIANT DISGUISE is at work in favor of Missouri, a team that sports a flawless 8-0 ATS record on the road versus opponents off consecutive SUATS wins. Tiger coach Pinkel is also 6-1 ATS against foes off a SU dog win, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS if the opponent has a winning record. We’re sure the more keen-eyed of you are already shouting, “Hey, wait! Missouri was unbeaten and got deep-sixed by Okie State. Shouldn’t they be a BUBBLE BURST fade?” No, because the scenario only works against FAVORED teams that were 5-0 or greater and tasted defeat for the first time. Even though Texas has covered eight of the last nine games after Oklahoma, we think Chase Daniel and company can win this outright. The new No. 1 goes down.
VIRGINIA Plus over North Carolina
Virginia coach Al Groh’s realtor must be feeling a bit down right now. After the Wahoos got dissected by Duke while opening the season 1-3, ‘Groh Must Go’ banners were seen all around Charlottesville and a change of address seemed like a certainty for the eight-year Cavalier mentor. But when Virginia registered a pair of shocking upsets over Maryland and East Carolina, Groh’s ‘For Sale’ signs disappeared from his front yard. We don’t know where they went but they may as well stay in storage: Virginia is 9-1 ATS kickin’ it with the Heels (8-0 L8 home) and the Cavs have cashed to the tune of 7-1 ATS as ACC home dogs of 5 or more points. Carolina’s gaudy 5-1 record is betrayed by a mirror-opposite 1-5 mark ‘In The Stats’ and the Heels have fallen into a lifeless 0-5 ATS pit when playing a conference team the week after meeting a non-conference adversary. THIS JUST IN: teams who beat Notre Dame and come favored in their next games are just 4-16 ATS versus a conference foe of < .666. The Cavs have rolled up 66 points in their last two games so we’ll stay along for the ride.
Baylor Plus over OKLAHOMA STATE
Oklahoma’s upset loss to Texas last week not withstanding, football in the state of Oklahoma has been delightful this season. The three Football Bowl Subdivision (there’s that dang title, again) teams from Merle Haggard’s beloved state – OU, OSU and Tulsa – are 17-1 combined in 2008. The task at hand this week for Mike Gundy’s Cowboys will be to keep focused on the task at hand, namely the Baylor Bears, and not on a date with No. 1 ranked Texas next week. Good luck. For openers, Art Briles has done a splendid job in his first year at the helm with the Bears as they have already won as many games as they did last season. It’s because his troops are +53 net YPG on the year, a dramatic improvement from last year’s -113 net YPG figure. Aside from the Longhorn look ahead, Gundy battles a huge letdown possibility given the fact he is 0-4 ATS in games off an underdog win and his team is 0-8-1 SU and 2-7 ATS games after meeting Missouri. It’s simply too much of a BRILLIANT DISGUISE for any team to overcome. We’re going Bear hunting this week.