The Miami Wildcats, err Dolphins, return to South Beach off last week’s gut-wrenching loss at Houston, a game in which they allowed the Texans to march down the field during the final minute of play to turn a win into a crushing loss on Houston’s final possession. When last we saw them at home they benefited from an aforementioned WAKE UP CALL in a 17-10 win over the Chargers. They’ll dress up today as favorites for the first time in the Tony Sparano era, a role in which they’ve failed miserably the past two years (0-4 SU and ATS). It fits nicely into a scenario that finds home favorites just 1-9 ATS since 1990 who were road dogs in their previous game and SU home dog winners as +6 or more two games ago. Meanwhile, the Ravens bring their top-ranked defense into the fray off three straight losses knowing they are 13-4 ATS in games off 3 L’s and back-to-back spread losses, including 9-1 against a foe off a spread win. Welcome to the world of NFL chalk, Tony.
The Texans did everything they could to lose last week’s game but in the end they couldn’t. They dominated the Dolphins from start to finish yet continually kept the Fish in the game with turnovers and penalties…all signs of a team certainly struggling to gain an identity. On the other side of the field the Lions put together their most complete effort of the season, albeit a 5th consecutive loss. The bottom line here is the Texans are off a one-point maiden victory and find themselves laying more than a touchdown to a hungry Lion. Given Houston’s 4-9 ATS mark in its expansion career as a favorite of 2 or more points, and the fact that 1-4 teams off their first win of the season are a wallet burning 0-7 ATS in Game Six against a foe off back-to-back losses, there is only one thing to do here; roar!
Last Week: 2-1 Season: 8-6