Are You Ready for Some Football? HAPPY THANKSGIVING!

THURSDAY PLAYS


TEXAS over TCU by 6

We have a feeling that Condoleezza Rice and the other 12 NCAA Playoff Selection Committee members are hoping that the Longhorns feast on ‘Frog’ legs – and not turkey – this Thanksgiving. Otherwise, the verbal
attacks they’ll be getting from either the Fort Worth or Waco press on December 7 (Pearl Harbor Day) when they announce the four playoff teams will make that 1941 attack look like a water-balloon fight. The good news is the ‘Horns are rounding into shape (3-0 SUATS last three) and are 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS with regular-season rest. The bad news is the Frogs are equally impressive when given extra time to prepare in
the regular season (10-1 SU and 11-0 ATS). However, the Horned Ones are a winless 0-5 ATS as conference road favorites since joining the Big 12 in 2012 and 1-5 ATS in their last six weekday tilts while Texas is
a satisfying 3-1 SUATS at home on Thanksgiving off back-to-back SU wins. In addition, the TCU stop-unit, after surrendering a total of 21 points in their first three games, has allowed an average of 27 PPG since.
That’s not a good sign against a Texas team that is 120-4 SU at home in games in which they score 27 or more points. Neither is the fact that Longhorns’ head coach Charlie Strong is a well-prepared 9-2 ATS as a
dog versus .750 or greater, including 3-0 SUATS when taking 7 or less points. With that, look for the Frogs to croak in a big way tonight in Austin – especially with our INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK supplying
THE CLINCHER: Since 1968, TCU is 2-29 SU versus Texas, having been favored only once – last year. They lost that contest, 30-7, as 3-point favorites.

NFL: Philadelphia over Dallas by 10

Battle of 1st place leaders in the NFC East finds the Eagles taking on the Cowboys at Jerry’s World on Thanksgiving Day where America’s team has hosted Turkey Day games each year since 1978. The Boys have thrived against losing opposition on Gobbler Day, winning 12 of the last 13 matchups. Not so when facing .500 or greater opponents, however, winning only 7 of the last 19 games on Thanksgiving against relevant opposition. Making matters worse, the Cowboys are only 1-10 ATS on Thanksgiving Day games after defeating the New York Giants the previous week. On the fl ip side, the Eagles are 4-1 SU all time on this day of thanks, including 2-0 SU and ATS of late. The key to this call is the play on the field of each team lately as Philly has outgained five of its last six opponents while Dallas as been out-yarded in three of its last four contests. Granted, Cowboys QB Tony Romo is 28-6 SU in November, but Dallas head coach Jason Garrett compounds matters with a 1-7 ATS mark in his NFL career as a division favorite in games where the Cowboys own a .500 or greater record. The larger half of the wishbone goes to the Eagles in this showdown. The Clincher: Philadelphia head coach Chip Kelly is 19-1 SU and 14-6 ATS on the road in NFL division and college conference games combined in his career as a head coach.



OLE Miss over Miss State by 11

Three losses in their last four games and the Rebels have gone from hosting College GameDay to being totally shunned by the media. Remember our joke that the SMART BOX was so smart it made Einstein look like Bo Wallace? Nobody’s laughing now, not after Wallace dinged his ankle in last week’s loss at Arkansas. But the time has come for Bo to tape up and get his game on. After all, what better way for Johnny Reb to bury the pain of recent setbacks than to derail rival Mississippi State – and knock them out of the national playoff picture? There is enormous pressure on the Bulldogs right now and not many 400-yard defenses (like MSU) hold up in these high-stakes situations. Not when their head coach, Dan Mullen, is just 10-25 SU versus a greater-than .700 opponent, including 1-5 SUATS when the foe is off a SU loss. Despite beating the Rebs as a 4-point home dog in last year’s meeting, Mullen has been outgained in both games against Hugh Freeze in this series, and the ATS archives suggest he’s in a bad spot here. Not only is the series host 5-1 ATS – and 8-3 SU and 8-2-1 ATS when playing with revenge off a SU loss – Mississippi also owns a timely 7-2 ATS mark when seeking SEC revenge. Toss in a Rebels’ defense that is 90 YPG better than the MSU stop-unit and you don’t have to smell magnolias to know where we’re headed. Bo restores his legend with the aid of The Clincher: Rebel head coach Hugh Freeze is 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in his career as a single-digit underdog.



Washington State over Washington by 10

We told you about Luke Falk last week and he promptly answered our question: it was real, not Memorex! He is definitely not a Star Wars character, but instead a freshman starting QB for the Cougars, lighting up the skies with one of those cool light sabres, even if his aim is sometimes a little off. FYI: he turned down an offer by Florida State, only to be cast aside in the recruiting wars, and eventually Idaho pulled an offer amongst a new coaching change (shame on you, Vandals). Now he’s a walk-on star with Mike Leach’s Cougars despite his inexperience, passing for 1,072 yards and 8 TD’s in his first two starts with WSU (both on the road while stepping in for injured starter Connor Halliday). The Cougars were able to engineer the upset over Oregon State three weeks ago, but last Saturday dropped a 52-31 decision to Arizona State as Washington State outgained ASU, 622-330(a 5-0 TO deficit did them in). Falk admitted to some bad reads, as he was picked off four times and fumbled once, but he obviously fits well into Leach’s Air Raid attack. Meanwhile, the Huskies have been sledding downhill after a 4-0 start, going 3-5 SU since then. This is the cheapest price in this series on the Huskies – for a reason – since they were taking points in 2006, but the underdog has covered in nine of the last 10 series matchups played in Pullman, so the low number doesn’t scare us at all. Washington is 2-5 ATS in conference road finales, but here is The Clincher: Cougars’ head coach Mike Leach is 11-1 SU in
Last Home Games, including 7-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS when his team owns a win percentage of .600 or less.


SUNDAY PRO

NE over Green Bay by 6


A possible Super Bowl preview perhaps? It sure smells like it as both teams take the field playing their best ball of the season. After a disturbing 1-2 start, the Packers are now on a 7-1 run, including 3-0 since their bye week. On the flip side, the Patriots bring a 7-game win skein to Lambeau after a wobbly 2-2 September. Most impressive has been New England’s rush defense, one that has allowed 153 total rushing yards int the last three games – to teams that are currently 22-11 combined on the season. The history book agrees with our contention, noting the Pats are 9-2 ATS versus the NFC North, including 6-0 ATS away. They’re also a spot-on perfect 4-0 SU and ATS as underdogs this season. Given the fact that Green Bay has cashed in only six of 20 games when hosting teams from the AFC East since 1982, and has allowed more yards than they’ve gained, the points become the play here today. The Clincher: Patriots QB Tom Brady is 33-15-1 ATS as a dog in his NFL career, including 4-0 SUATS in games where New England owns a win percentage of .800 or more.