With NFL ‘EAST’ division teams leading the charge with a combined total of 14 games played in Conference title tilts this new millennium, including a league high five championship game appearances games by squads located in the AFC EAST, it speaks to the strength of this group.
So does the division’s 148-95-5 ATS mark away from home in games versus sub .667 opposition since 2000, including a sterling 17-5 ATS record in this role when taking eight or more points.
Leading the charge is Mr. Personality himself, Bill Belichick and his New England Patriots. While his persona is creepy, his manhandling of AFC East division foes that are off back-to-back losses is downright sinister, going 21-3 SU and 20-4 ATS in his NFL career in these affairs.
The Jets went from the hunter to the hunted last year and managed to stay one step ahead of the posse in the process when they landed a spot in the AFC title game for the second-straight season. Interestingly, under head coach Rex Ryan, the Flyboys are 0-3 SU and ATS in games win which they’ve had a week off.
Meanwhile, Miami owner Stephen Ross’ hiring of minority celebrity owners failed to improve the team on the field last year and it appears this may be Tony Sparano’s swan song, especially if the Fish fail to improve on last year’s eyebrow-raising 1-7 effort at Sun Life Stadium.
And then there’s Buffalo, a team that has enjoyed only one winning season this millennium. The addition of solid defensive talent and the promise of improvement from last year’s heralded first-round RB C.J Spiller lends hope to Chan Gailey’s troops being a mild surprise in 2011, especially with all the buzz in this division pointed elsewhere.
Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2011 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine, with various addendums included after the NFL Lockout was lifted. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.
TEAM THEME: HANGING CHAN
For a team that has won three division games in three years, it wasn’t exactly Christmas in April the day the 2011 NFL schedule was announced. Not when you’re awarded the 2nd toughest opponent schedule (last year’s foes were 137-119) in the league. Going right to work in the draft at that point, the Bills chose to pass over their future franchise quarterback (Blaine Gabbert) in favor of rebuilding with immediate-impact defensive players. DT Marcell Dareus has the look of a Pro Bowler and he’ll be relied on heavily to plug a rush defense that ranked dead last (4.8 DYPR) last season. Meanwhile, head coach Chan Gailey will hang his hat on the arm of journeyman QB Ryan Fitzpatrick who did a nice job when pressed into duty last season. “We like our quarterback,” said Bills GM Buddy Nix. “We think Fitz is a smart guy, he’s a tough guy. He threw for 3000 yards and had a really good year. Our players believe in him. He's a leader for us, so he's our quarterback." Not exactly Tom Brady-like praise, but he’ll have to do for now.
PLAY ON: vs. Washington (10/30)
FAST FACT: Gailey is 1-13 SU and 3-10 ATS away vs. non-division opponents.
MIAMI
TEAM THEME: FISH OUT OF WATER
Frustration is measured many ways. The disappointment that accompanies it lasts until it is detached. The 2010 season for the Dolphins was an anomaly, for sure, when they became the only team in NFL history to win five more road games than home games in the same season. As a result Miami was home for the holidays for the second straight year. Meanwhile, the resolve the Dolphins have in QB Chad Henne was expressed in this year’s draft when they passed on the chance to select QB Ryan Mallett in the 2nd round, opting to trade up and land RB Daniel Thomas instead. Thomas, a former quarterback in high school and junior college, has a level of comfort with running the Wildcat offense. Tony Sparano, a noted offensive line guru before taking the reins in Miami, was able to fix the interior line that broke down in front of Henne last season when he selected C/G Mike Pouncey, the twin brother of Maurkice, a Pro-Bowl center as a rookie last season, in the first round. Remember, Sparano inherited a 1-15 team and has turned it into a playoff contender. Expect them to get back in their element this season.
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. San Diego (10/2)
FAST FACT: Miami is 8-0 ATS as a road dog of less than four points under Sparano.
NEW ENGLAND
TEAM THEME: PATSIES
This much we know for sure. The playoff loss to the Jets last year showed nothing is more important than protecting the franchise, Tom Brady. When hurried he becomes merely mortal. The first step in that remedy was the selection of OT Nate Solder of Colorado. To their surprise Solder was the highest rated left tackle in the draft and they snagged him up with the 17th pick of the draft. They also reeled in troubled QB Ryan Mallett in the 3rd-round who will learn his craft from Brady. Mallett could be the quarterback of the future or swapped as a trade commodity. Rest assured, the 34-year old Brady plans on being under center for awhile, telling NFL Network analyst Kurt Warner that he was planning on playing 10 more years. Let’s hope a case of Brett Favre Fever doesn’t impair his thought process. Meanwhile, Bill Belichick’s immediate cause of concern is that the Patsies haven’t won a playoff game since the 2007 season and his troops have gone one-and-out two straight years in the playoffs. And most alarmingly, their stats went backwards last season despite 14 regular season wins. Uh oh.
PLAY ON: home vs. NY Jets (10/9)
FAST FACT: Tom Brady is 10-1 SU and ATS as a dog off a loss in his NFL career.
NY JETS
TEAM THEME: WTF
Would did the New York Jets and ‘Hard Knocks’ have in common with Arnold Schwarzenegger and ‘True Lies’? The titles fit the two personalities to a tee. And speaking of personalities, there is perhaps none more brash than Jets’ head coach Rex Ryan who admits that “I’m even more than I can stand.” What Ryan can’t stand is losing another conference championship game. There is no truth to the rumor that Ryan was more disappointed at falling one game short of the Super Bowl for the 2nd straight year last season than he was when he learned his wife had come down with a bad case of athlete’s foot. Characters aside, Ryan upgraded an already dominant defense with DL Muhammad Wilkerson and Kendrick Ellis (a 3rd-round steal) with his first two selections in this year’s draft. Remember this when evaluating teams from a defensive perspective: only three of them held foes to season low yardage four times last season – the Chargers, the Giants and the Jets. Only one of them made it to the playoffs. To which Ryan responded, “What the f**k!”
PLAY ON: vs. Oakland (9/25)
FAST FACT: The Jets are 9-1-1 ATS in road openers.
2011 AFC NORTH DIVISION
If you’ve ever wondered why it is Pittsburgh is pretty much a rival to every team in the AFC North, the answer is simple.
Three of the teams have connecting histories. Cincinnati and Cleveland were founded by Paul Brown, while the Baltimore Ravens and the city of Cleveland have their own unique relationship. Only the Steelers, who are older than the original Browns, have no direct history involving Paul Brown.
The AFC North is also the only division in the AFC that does not contain a charter team from the original American Football League.
While tons of history and pedigree abound in this division, it’s been the Ravens and Steelers that have dominated of late. With only four losing seasons between the dynamic duo over the last decade, the two have combined to go 240-143-1 SU and 209-166-5 ATS (55.7%) this millennium.
On the flip side, the Bengals and Browns are 134-220-1 SU and 162-183-10 (46.5%) collectively over the same span.
And, for all intents and purposes, it appears there is no changing of the guard looming in the near future.
A word to the wise: teams from this division travel exceptionally well in competitive games, going 33-38 SU and 36-19-6 ATS as road dogs of three or less points since 2000.
Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2011 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine, with various addendums included after the NFL Lockout was lifted. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.
BALTIMORE
TEAM THEME: HIP DUO
The AFC’s version of Atlanta’s dynamic duo of Mike Smith and Matt Ryan, Baltimore’s terrific twosome of John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco have been joined at the hip the last three years. And like the former, John and Joe have been busy winning games and making dough for their backers en route to three straight playoff appearances. Initial concern this season would normally be last year’s declining numbers where the offense and defense performed like the economy when they both fell off on both sides of the ball clear across the board. However, the combination of a soft schedule (the league’s 2nd easiest, with opponents combining for a 117-139 record last year) and decent draft (backup QB Tyrod Taylor at No. 6 was a steal) should keep the Black Birds resting on their perch for another season. And speaking of this year’s agenda, the Ravens’ road slate finds them taking on only two foes with winning records last season. That fits like a cape and mask with Harbaugh’s gaudy 21-1 SU and 17-5 ATS mark in games against losing teams.
PLAY ON: home vs. Pittsburgh (9/11)
FAST FACT: The Ravens are 5-0 SU and ATS home off a win vs. an opponent off a loss under Harbaugh.
CINCINNATI
TEAM THEME: BUCKLE UP
The roller coaster ride at King’s Island Amusement Park outside Cincinnati has nothing on the ups and downs of this team. From last-to-first-to-last place finishes in the AFC North Division each of the last three seasons, the Bengals have added more grey onto the head of Marvin Lewis than jugs of Just For Men could ever handle. Still, a promising offensive draft has transformed this team as it prepares for life after Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco. As a result Lewis believes quarterback Andy Dalton, the team's second-round pick, has a good chance of starting at the beginning of the season. Especially Palmer’s trade me-or-else edict delivered during the off-season. "I feel really good about Dalton," Lewis said. "If he ends up being the starter as a rookie, I think he can do that." New offensive coordinator Jay Gruden has raved about Dalton and his strengths. "What impresses me is the location of the throws. He gives his guy a chance to run after the catch," said Gruden. Fortunately the new young cast will face easiest non-division opponent schedule in the league this year as last year’s foes were 63-97. Let the ride begin.
PLAY ON: as a dog at home vs. Baltimore (1/1)
FAST FACT: The Bengals are 2-13-1 ATS as HF’s under Marvin Lewis after allowing 20 > points.
CLEVELAND
TEAM THEME: ON THE FRITZ
When Cleveland GM, and former NFL head coach Mike Holmgren, pink-slipped Eric Mangini in favor of Pat Shurmur he had a plan. Along with himself, and with former head coach Dick Jauron added as the new defensive coordinator, Holmgren surrounded Shurmur, the nephew of former Green Bay Packer defensive coordinator Fritz Shurmur, with as much experience as a rookie head coach could possibly be afforded. Shurmur, a four-year letterman at Michigan State and co-captain of the 1988 winning Rose Bowl team, brings 12 years of NFL coaching experience, including the offensive coordinator of the St. Louis Rams last year in their offensive renaissance. That’s the good news. The bad news is the NFL lockout could prove especially harmful to promising young quarterback Colt McCoy, of whom Shurmur feels has it. “He's a leader. He's a guy that I think can be the guy to lead our organization, so I'm looking forward to getting to work with him." To no one’s surprise Jauron added massive defensive tackle Phil Taylor and pass-rushing end Jabaal Sheard. Three straight 1-5 division finishes look to be a thing of the past, sooner than later.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Oakland (10/16)
FAST FACT: Cleveland is 1-37 SU off a loss vs. greater than .666 opponents since returning to the NFL.
PITTSBURGH
TEAM THEME: THE COLOR OF MONEY
Remaining true to their colors, the Steelers selected defensive players with four of their first five picks in this year’s NFL draft. It’s been the benchmark of this team dating back to the 70’s and the Steel Curtain defense. Many agree the 1978 Pittsburgh Steelers were the greatest team in NFL history. They didn’t just dominate, they’d intimidate. They went 17-2 that year when they allowed 9.3 PPG during the regular season, with the losses by a total of 10 points. It’s by design that Pittsburgh has allowed an average 282 YPG and 17.7 PPG this millennium. And it’s also why they’ve managed to capture three Super Bowls last six years. Like the Steelers of yesteryear, Mike Tomlin’s team plays a punishing brand of football. That’s evidenced by the fact that teams in the league are a wobbly 28-33 SU and 22-39 ATS in games after squaring off against Tomlin’s teams. Sure, they’ll carry the moniker of Super Bowl loser this season and we’ll play accordingly as these teams rarely make it back to the playoffs the following year, let alone prosper, going just 38-70-2 ATS as favorites since 2000. Ouch.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Tennessee (10/9)
FAST FACT: Ben Roethlisberger is 20-1 SU and 18-3 ATS vs. greater than .666 division opponents.
2011 AFC SOUTH DIVISION
Could there be a changing of the guard in the South this season?
If you trust in NFL QB ratings there is. That’s because after nipping at Peyton Manning heels two years ago, Houston’s Matt Schaub’s 92.0 rating edged Manning’s 91.9 at season’s end last year.
With Manning slow to recover from off season neck surgery, and Colts forced to rely on the quarterback tandem of Curtis Painter and Kerry Collins until his return, Huston will certainly need to improve on its 10-15 SU and 10-14-1 ATS record during the first five games of the season under Gary Kubiak in order to take advantage.
Quarterback questions also surround Jacksonville and Tennessee where David Garrard looks to hold off first-round pick Blaine Gabbert while Matt Hasselbeck will be sleepless outside Seattle for the first time in his NFL career this season.
Two notes of interest concerning the AFC South: Since their inception in 2002, the AFC South has been a home dog haven, with its members going 54-35-1ATS, including 32-14-1 during the 2nd half of the season.
In addition, this division has dominated it’s NFC brethren, going 24-9-1 SU and 22-11 ATS against the NFC South, including 15-1 SU and 12-4 ATS at home.
In this business, the bottom line is… the bottom line. The bottom line here: Look for the South to continue its surge in 2011.
Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2011 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine, with various addendums included after the NFL Lockout was lifted. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.
HOUSTON
TEAM THEME: THE ‘P’ WORD
The word on the NFL streets is that the Houston offense has plenty of balls. It’s the defense that played like pussies and consequently suffered its first losing season last year since head coach Gary Kubiak took over the reins in 2006. Thus, new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is a welcome addition to a team that had none. Phillips is a mastermind on the defensive front where he moved the Chargers from 31st to 11th in total team defense in just one season. Bum’s boy is also installing a 3-4 defense and as a result the Texans used seven of their eight draft picks, including the first five, on defensive players. He’s also shifting imposing 6-6, 295-pound Pro Bowl DE Mario Williams to linebacker. Meanwhile, Kubiak’s high profiled attack unit continues to improve, having bettered its offensive production each of the last three years in a row. That being said, a tough opening slate this year (one losing foe in first six games) figures to test this team's mettle early on. Thanks to Phillips, more testosterone and fewer close shaves figure to pave the way to the playoffs this season.
PLAY ON: vs. Carolina (12/18)
FAST FACT: Houston is 4-0 SU and ATS vs. NFC South opponents in it franchise history.
INDIANAPOLIS
TEAM THEME: GET YOUR WINTER ON
Making the best of a short stack, the Colts chipped away and left this year’s draft table feeling mighty good about their haul. First and second round selections, Anthony Castonzo and Ben Ijalana, both figure to start on an offensive line that is in serious decline. And third round pick, DT Drake Nevis, was a sure-fire steal. This on the heels of a strong finish last year when there was a point, at 6-6 on the season, the Colts were about to give a whole new meaning to ‘Indianapolis .500’. Instead, to their credit, they managed to secure a ninth-straight berth in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Colts will hope to do what the Cowboys couldn’t last year, namely get to a Super Bowl on their home field when Indianapolis hosts SB XLVI. Getting there won’t be easy, though, as Indy faces the league’s toughest non-division opponent schedule this year, with foes going 93-67 combined last year. Sure it can get a bit brisk in Naptown in February but, hey, they’re prepared. After all, there is nowhere they’d rather be than at Peyton’s place this year. Yeah, it’s cool.
PLAY ON: vs. New Orleans (10/23) - *KEY as a dog
FAST FACT: The Colts are 4-0 SU and ATS all-time away vs. NFC South opponents.
JACKSONVILLE
TEAM THEME: GIFT OF GAB
In a move that raised a few eyebrows, the Jags traded up to land QB Blaine Gabbert of Missouri with the No. 10 pick in this year’s draft. They hadn’t drafted a quarterback since they picked Byron Leftwich in 2003. The move didn’t surprise Terry Shea, the NFL quarterback coach-guru who worked with Gabbert, and groomed top picks Sam Bradford and Matthew Stafford for the draft the previous two seasons. “He’s an exceptional athlete with tremendous work ethic,” said Shea. “He will be the face of the franchise for many years to come.” Residing in a division with Peyton Manning and Matt Schaub, credit Jack Del Rio for pulling the trigger and making the savvy move. Granted, the team has holes aplenty on the defense but the Jaguars had Gabbert as the top-rated quarterback in the draft. It also sends a message to incumbent QB David Garrard – improve or be replaced. Ironically, Gabbert will have the luxury of being groomed by Garrard. Gabbert acknowledged he was able to get a playbook after being drafted. Said Gabbert, "It's great to have it, and I've already gotten into it a lot."
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Cleveland (11/20)
FAST FACT: Del Rio is 11-1 ATS as a road dog of six or less points with revenge.
TENNESSEE
TEAM THEME: GONE FISHING
After tip toeing all around the Vince Young malady Jeff Fisher, the longest-tenured coach in the NFL, called it quits. The direct result was a season ending 1-8 tailspin as the Titans tasted their first losing season in five years. Mike Munchak, a Hall of Fame offensive lineman with franchise and 14-year assistant with Fisher, becomes the first former player to become a Tennessee head coach. Munchak’s new offensive coordinator is Chris Palmer the former Browns head coach. Palmer will be itching to work with Jake Locker, considered a reach by many with the 8th pick in the first round of this year’s draft. The talented Locker promises to be prepared, stating “If you understand what you’re doing, you’re allowed to play fast. That allows you to have more success, so that’s where my focus will be.” To insure his long-term success, the Titans acquired veteran QB Matt Hasselbeck from Seattle. The good news is that only seven other teams in the league will take on a harder schedule than Tennessee this season. If it sounds like we’re baiting you on the Titans’ prospects this season, we are. Half of its 18 losses the past two seasons have been by eight or fewer points.
PLAY ON: vs. Tampa Bay (11/27)
FAST FACT: Tennessee is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS vs. NFC opponents in its franchise history.
2011 AFC WEST DIVISION
The good news in the AFC West last year was that only one team suffered a losing record. The bad news is only one team earned a spot in the playoffs – and surprisingly it wasn’t San Diego.
The wild, wild West finds two new coaches roaming the sidelines in 2011, namely veteran John Fox at Denver and rookie Hue Jackson at Oakland. Fox arrives after compiling a 78-74 SU and 76-73-3 ATS mark in nine seasons at Carolina, including a nifty 32-22-1 ATS mark as a road dog.
Meanwhile, like Fox, incumbents Todd Haley at Kansas City and Norv Turner at San Diego bring near-break even career records in to the season as well.
That’s confirmed with Haley’s 14-19 SU and 16-17 ATS career mark in all games, including 4-8 SU and 3-7 ATS against division foes.
Turner enters with a 103-109-1 SU and 102-107-4 ATS career log, including 17-28 ATS as a division host.
No matter what spin you put on it appears as if the numbers above make this the mild, mid West, if you get our drift.
In closing, this note of caution: Before revving up with home teams in this division, you would be best advised to throttle down as AFC West hosts went 23-43-5 ATS this past decade in games versus division opponents with losing records, including a mind-boggling 2-16-1 ATS in an anticipated low-scoring contest when the Over/Under total in the game was 40 or fewer points.
Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2011 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine, with various addendums included after the NFL Lockout was lifted. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.
DENVER
TEAM THEME: FOX TROT
While one of new coach John Fox's favorite expressions is "the best pass defense is a pass rush,” the Denver fans wouldn't know. The Broncos’ 23 sacks last season tied for the 45th lowest total in the franchise's 50 years. The addition of LB Von Miller, the 2nd player selected in this year’s draft, along with the return of a healthy Elvis Dumerville should remedy the situation. Miller had 27.5 sacks and 39 tackles for loss the last two seasons in the Big 12 and Dumerville led the NFL in sacks in 2009. John Elway, new director of operations, was so enamored with Miller that it was his contention a person didn’t even need to know what number Miller wore in college to know him since he stood out so much on tape. "He'll be a big part of us bringing back the Orange Crush defense," Elway gushed. On the offensive front Fox trots around the quarterback situation, insisting the job is wide open between Kyle Orton, Brady Quinn and Tim Tebow. Regardless, we still believe that Tebow may still be a virgin, but when he scores he’ll always continue to enjoy the thrill of six.
PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. Cincinnati (9/18) *KEY off win
FAST FACT: Denver is 19-3 SU and ATS away in games in which it allows 100 or less rushing yards.
KANSAS CITY
TEAM THEME: TRANSFORMERS
When the Chiefs nabbed WR Jonathan Baldwin with the 26th pick in the first round of this year’s draft they landed a prototype of today's NFL receiver: big (230 pounds), tall (6-4) and fast, with great athletic skills that can stretch a defense and still fight for every pass thrown over the middle. "There's been a transformation in the last few years in the NFL with the receivers," said head coach Todd Haley, an old receivers coach during his climb up the professional ladder. "They are bigger and taller and they can run. They are exceptional talents. That's what he gives us." He also gives the Chiefs a relief valve for Pro Bowl WR Dwayne Bowe and a second option for QB Matt Cassel. In addition, the Featherheads also landed QB Ricky Stanzi, a 5th-round coup and the first signal caller drafter by Chiefs since 2006 (Brodie Croyle). Before getting too geeked up about the rebirth of this team under Haley, it’s important to remember they faced only two winning teams last season – and lost both games straight up. Taking on the 2nd toughest non-division opponent schedule this year will serve as a litmus test.
PLAY ON: as a home dog vs. San Diego (10/31)
FAST FACT: Chiefs are 15-7 SU and 17-4-1 ATS as division home dogs with revenge.
OAKLAND
TEAM THEME: CABLE CANCELLED
Tom Cable is out and Hue Jackson (Raiders offensive coordinator last year) is in, with Jackson becoming the seventh head coach the last 10 years in Oakland. Don’t feel sorry for Cable. That’s what he gets for becoming the first coach in NFL history to sweep its division and not make the playoffs, at least according to Al Davis’ logic. Davis was a football coach long before he became an owner and he believes there are two things you can’t teach – size and speed. His obsession struck again in this year’s draft. After a solid pick with C Stefen Wisniewski of Penn State, the Raiders went heavy on speed thereafter, setting up another potentially disastrous draft. And in a move similar to Drew Brees orchestrating and underwriting team practice sessions, DL Richard Seymour invited teammates to attend on-field drills, weightlifting, swimming and nutritional counseling during the lockout – all funded by Seymour. “We are going to outwork everyone we face this season, and it starts right now in the offseason,” emailed Seymour who signed a $30 million, two-year contract with the Raiders in February.
PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. Chicago (11/27)
FAST FACT: The Raiders are 1-7 SU and ATS all-time vs. NFC North opponents.
SAN DIEGO
TEAM THEME: NORVOUS TIME
As sure as the sun rises in the east and sets in the west, you can set your watch on the fact the Chargers will start slow and finish fast –as long as Norv Turner is roaming the sidelines. That’s confirmed by the Bolts’ 8-12 SU and 7-12-1 ATS mark in their first five games with Turner (2-3 all four years), and their 33-11 SU and 28-15-1 ATS log in games 6 through 16. It was bad enough that San Diego owned the league’s top ranked offense AND defense, yet failed to make the playoffs last season. That might be attributed to the fact that the Chargers were so beaten up last season they wheeled out 74 players, tying a league record. They were especially short in the wide receiver department where there were nine with at least one catch and none with more than 37. Adding to Norv’s dilemma this year will be four games in Eastern-time zones, resulting in 26,740 miles of travel in 2011. The bottom line is this team is too talented to let what happened last season repeat itself in 2011.
PLAY ON: vs. Oakland (11/10) - *KEY
FAST FACT: The Chargers are 20-2 in the month of December.