Long considered the ‘beast’ of all NFL divisions, the NFC East features no less than three Pro Bowl quarterbacks.
The division is also the top-heavy favorite with an average 8.875 ‘win total’ for the season per team. Does this mean all four teams are playoff bound in 2011? That’s doubtful, but we just might find three’s company by season’s end.
No team appeared in more playoff games since 2000 than Philadelphia. The Eagles 19 post-season games tied New England for league honors. Together, the NFC East has combined to play 36 games in the playoffs in the 2000’s, easily the best in the league.
These ‘beasts’ especially rewarded their backers this past decade whenever they went out as road dogs off a SU win, going 71-38-4 ATS, including 29-10-1 when taking six or more points.
While they may beat up on each other, these NFC East creatures of habit certainly command the respect of players alike.
Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2011 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine, with various addendums included after the NFL Lockout was lifted. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.
TEAM THEME: POCKET PRESSURE
Last year’s 6-10 backward flip brought the critics out of the closet. It also sent owner Jerry Jones in search of a makeover. Aside from signing Jason Garrett on as the full-time head coach (the Cowboys were 5-3 under Garrett after an inglorious 1-7 start last season), Jones corralled Rex Ryan as his new defensive coordinator. The resulting change finds Dallas switching to a 3-4 attack. "We are going to find a way to get to the quarterback. He's the source of the passing game, as you guys know, and we want to attack him," insists Ryan. "We have the finest pass rusher in football in DeMarcus Ware. We look forward to hitting quarterbacks and getting after them." In addition, Hall of Game quarterback Roger Staubach is sick and tired of pundits casting aspersions and pointing the blame at QB Tony Romo, "He hasn't been the problem. He's done unbelievable. He's right at the top of the NFL as far as a quarterback. We've got a Super Bowl quarterback. With Jason (Garrett) they can be right there in the thick of it this year,” said Staubach. We don’t disagree.
PLAY ON: vs. Arizona (12/4)
FAST FACT: Dallas is 0-7 ATS as a Monday night favorite of 7 or less points.
NY GIANTS
TEAM THEME: TAKE MY BREATH AWAY
A 10-win season was not enough to earn a pass to the post-season, making it two straight years the Giants have not earned a bonus check. Unlike the heat Tom Coughlin endured after an 8-8 performance in 2009, last year’s effort temporarily lowered the flames. A quizzical home loss to the Cowboys (as 12.5-point chalk) signaled the beginning of the end for Big Blue backers when a 6-2 SU start fizzled into a 2-6 ATS finish. They went to work on the draft and came away winners, filling needs with each of their first six picks, with 1st and 2nd-rounders, CB Prince Amukarmara (broken foot, out indefinitely) and DT Marvin Austin, hoping to contrinute. A super-soft schedule to start the season (one winning foe first seven games, and a one-month span of no road games) allows Coughlin plenty of time to take a deep breath and prepare for a demanding agenda to close the campaign. If there’s one thing we’ve learned about this team it’s that they know how win take care of business on the road, where they are 24-12 SU and 25-11 ATS in their last three-dozen games as a visitor.
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. NY Jets (12/24)
FAST FACT: The Giants are 10-0 ATS as dogs of more than three points vs. AFC East division opposition.
PHILADELPHIA
TEAM THEME: THE PLAN
Andy Reid and the Philadelphia brass planned on being aggressive in free agency once the NFL Lockout was lifted. “Howie (General manager Roseman) and I got the plan together. It's a good, aggressive plan. When they say go, we're ready to go. It's just a matter of that time coming forward. If it happens (training camp) Day 1, that's great," Reid said. "We got a plan for that. Did they ever. The acquisition of eight former Pro Bowlers has completely redesigned the look of this team for the 2011 season ahead. In addition the the free agent signing blitz Philly also managed to address their weakest need – the offensive line – in the NFL draft. They realize they’ve become the ‘Miami Heat of the NFL’ and they’re lovin’ it. If QB Michael Vick lives up to his long-term contract signing, and the free agent signing pan out, they become the team to beat in the NFC. The Packers are on notice, for the time being, at least.
PLAY ON: vs. Arizona (11/13)
FAST FACT: The Eagles are 17-3 SU and ATS as a favorite or dog of less than three points vs. the NFC West since 1995.
WASHINGTON
TEAM THEME: AS THE WORLD TURNS
Fortunatley, Mike Shanahan was able to pull the plug on the soap operas in the nation’s capitol – namely the Donovan McNabb saga and the Albert Haynesworth nightmare – by disposing of the two immediately after the NFL lockout was lifted. Unfortunately, the melodrama continues in Shanahan’s life. And life hasn’t been too rosy for Mike lately as his NFL career has taken a huge downward turn of late. That’s confirmed by Shanahan’s 130-78 SU and 107-94-7 ATS record in games he’s coached from 1998-2005 as opposed to his most recent 30-34 SU and 22-39-4 ATS since. And if his hair seems a bit grayer these days, it should. That’s because his troops were involved in more close-call games (12 decisions decided by six or less points) than any last year. Fortunately, the Redskins will face 2nd easiest non-division opponent schedule in the league this year. Here’s hoping they soon find an alternative to using a 30-year-old quarterback (John Beck) that hasn’t thrown a pass in the league in over three years as their starter, or a bonafide retread in Rex Grossman. The bottom line is nothing good happens with this team until its defense mans up. Shanahan is on notice.
PASS
FAST FACT: Shanahan is 0-13 ATS in games off a SU underdog win when facing a sub .600 opponent.
2011 NFC NORTH DIVISION
The ‘Black and Blue’ has bid adieu to icon.
And as such it appears Brett Favre’s separation from the NFL is now official.
Historically speaking the defending Super Bowl champion – namely Green Bay this season - returns to defend its title, albeit in a precarious situation. That’s because last year’s champs are just 44-64-5 ATS as division hosts the next year, including 20-26-1 ATS when favored by nine or less points.
This year the NFC North meets the AFC West in interleague play, a situation that has been very favorable for the Northerners as they are 21-11 SU and 20-11-1 ATS all-time these frays, including 11-1 ATS when the West arrives off a SU and ATS win in its previous game.
In addition you don’t want to be laying generous points in to the men of the North as they are 58-42-3 ATS as dogs of seven or more points since their inception in 2002, including 36-13-2 ATS when taking seven or more off back-to-back SU and ATS losses.
Incidentally, if you still wonder whether or not it was time for the Ole Wrangler to hang ‘em up the consider this: Favre’s QB Rating last year, thanks to 11 TD’s and 19 INT’s, was a career-low 69.9. Only Derek Anderson and Jimmy Clausen were worse.
RIP.
Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2011 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine, with various addendums included after the NFL Lockout was lifted. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.
CHICAGO
TEAM THEME: BRUISE CONTROL
Suffice to say, with only five picks in this year’s draft, the Bears fared well when they upgraded needs on both lines. Big, physical OT Gabe Carimi was a steal with the 29th pick and DL Stephen Paea is explosive and multi-dimensional run-stopper. And don’t be surprised if strong-armed 5th-round QB Nathan Enderle not only earns a spot on the roster but also contributes sooner than later. Despite the hiring of offensive coordinator Mike Martz, Chicago’s offense slipped dramatically (No. 30 overall). They need QB Jay Cutler to man-up in games in which he’s expected to perform (5-18-1 ATS as a home favorite in his NFL career). And they need Lovie Smith to better prepare this squad as road dogs from Game 10 out (2-15 SU and 5-11-1 ATS). Understand, the Bears will need to manage their way early out of hibernation as their first three opponents this year (Atlanta, New Orleans and Green Bay) were a combined .708 last season. If they are successful they can likely control their destiny with only four of the remaining thirteen games featuring 2010 playoff teams.
PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite at Detroit (10/10)
FAST FACT: Lovie Smith is 1-9-1 ATS off back-to-back wins vs. an opponent off back-to-back losses.
DETROIT
TEAM THEME: SUPER STAFF
Look. Up in the sky. Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No, it’s Super Staff, the new, stronger-than-ever quarterback model being unveiled in Detroit this season. After playing in only three games last year, and taking Lions’ LB Zack Follett’s “China Doll” shot to heart, QB Matthew Stafford entered into a serious off-season conditioning program following surgery. "I just listened to the trainers. I wanted them to tell me what is going to help get this (shoulder) problem behind me. That's what I concentrated on and it feels great now.” He’s back having a new chiseled upper body with arm strength never before realized. “It’s ridiculous, man. My hands are sore right now. Put these in an ice bucket real quick,” commented rookie WR Titus Young after his initial workout with Stafford. FYI: in the three games Stafford played last year he tossed six TD’s and had one interception. The addition of DT Nick Fairley, alongside super-stud Ndamukong Suh, was a stroke of draft genius. After having snapped 26-game road and 19-game division losing streaks last year, the Lions will work next on a dismal 2-31 division road record. Up, up and away.
PLAY ON: vs. Dallas (10/2)
FAST FACT: Detroit is 0-7 SU and ATS in its last six games on Thanksgiving Day.
GREEN BAY
TEAM THEME: LEADER OF THE PACK
Make no mistake about it. The leader of this team is Aaron Rodgers, whose QB rating the last three years has been 101.8, 104.4 and 105.5. Despite having 15 players land on IR last season, Rodgers led his team to the promise-land when the Packers became the first No. 6 NFC seed to win a Super Bowl. Capricious head coach Mike McCarthy is absolutely giddy at the possibilities of having a full deck to deal with this campaign. It afforded him the luxury of landing WR Randall Cobb of Kentucky in the 2nd-round. The multidimensional Cobb was a QB and WR with the Wildcats while also performing out of the Wildcat position. The versatile Cobb will also compete for the punt-and-kickoff return duties. However, it’s not all sunshine and roses for the Pack in 2011. There’s that killer thorn which is planted in the side of all defending Super Bowl champions. The same little ##### that has not permitted a champion to repeat since the 1998 Denver Broncos. To that fans in Green Bay simply reply, “Eat cheese or die.”
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. San Diego (11/6)
FAST FACT: The Packers are 7-0 SU and ATS in their last seven games vs. AFC West opponents.
MINNESOTA
TEAM THEME: PONDER THIS
Leslie Frazier coached six games last year, going 3-3 before the Vikings decided to remove the interim label and name him the official head coach. Frazier’s first plan of attack was to fill a glaring need and they did it with their top pick in the NFL draft. While many contend it was a reach, at least they stepped up to the plate and took a swing when they selected Christian Ponder of Florida State with the 12th pick. Like most rookie quarterbacks in the league this year, he will be breaking in without the benefit of a mini-camp. Ponder did, however, receive a playbook the day after the first round of the draft and, along with QB Joe Webb, trained in Florida with WR’s Percy Harvin and Sidney Rice during the off-season. In the interim, Donovon McNabb was inked as a stopgap until Ponder is ready to step up to the table. So what happens if McNabb and Ponder are unable to add life to an offense that slipped 67 YPG while going 0-5 SU and ATS against division foes with a winning record last year? Let’s hope, for Frazier’s sake, one or the other steps up. Otherwise there’s always Mike Singletary lurking on the sidelines. Think that over.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Washington (12/24)
FAST FACT: The Vikings are 5-23 ATS in their final road game of the regular season since 1983.
2011 NFC SOUTH DIVISION
If you are a vegan, like gaunt former President Bill Clinton, chances are you are likely a devotee of the NFC West. If you like barbeque, Cajun jambalaya and southern fried chicken, then the NFC South is likely more to your liking.
It’s in this division they’ve been cooking up a winning recipe a lot lately. Atlanta has made four playoff appearances since 2000, Carolina and Tampa Bay three, while New Orleans won the 2009 cook-off when they stunned Indianapolis in Super Bowl XLIV.
Incidentally, life on the division road has been particularly kind to members of this loop as evidenced by its 68-39 ATS mark since the league re-aligned divisions in 2002. When taking to the division road and seeking revenge they are 36-18 ATS, including 20-6 whenever with team is playing off a SU win.
And don’t underestimate the three experienced starting quarterbacks residing in the conference, namely Atlanta’s Matt Ryan, New Orleans’ Drew Brees and Tampa Bay’s Josh Freeman. Collectively they have shined as starters in this league when playing away (66-39-4 ATS), off a loss (4702804 ATS) or in non-division contests (80-55-4 ATS).
Yes, there’s lots of tantalizing hors d’oeuvres to munch on when sizing up this division and, while it may not be health food, it’s pretty much finger licking good.
Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2011 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine, with various addendums included after the NFL Lockout was lifted. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.
ATLANTA
TEAM THEME: BATMAN AND ROBIN
With a three year batting average of .660, and averaging 11 wins per season in that span, the dynamic duo of QB Matt Ryan and head coach Mike Smith have not only been winning games at an exceptional clip but also robbing the bookmakers blind as well, cashing 62% of the time at the pay window. In a head-scratching move the Falcons gave up a bundle to move up 21 spots in this year’s draft to select WR Julio Jones to compliment Pro Bowl receiver Roddy White. Good for the offense; bad for the defense as they failed to address the need for an impact pass rusher. Then again, there was no team worse than Atlanta in 2010 with only 44 plays of 20 yards or longer. The bottom line is that it’s hard to knock a team that was eliminated as a favorite in last year’s playoffs by the eventual Super Bowl champion, especially with many of the same pieces in place. And holy pigskin, let’s not don’t forget the dynamic duo’s marvelous 12-3 SU and 13-2 ATS mark in games off a loss.
PLAY ON: vs. Green Bay (10/9) - *KEY off a loss
FAST FACT: Falcons are 6-1 SU and ATS vs. NFC North division foes under Smith.
CAROLINA
TEAM THEME: PITY PARTY
The Panthers put it all on the line when they rolled the dice and selected last year’s Heisman Trophy winning quarterback, and self-designated icon and entertainer, Cam Newton with the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft. He joins new coach Ron Rivera as the makeover begins. Newton was the 9th SEC signal caller ever to go No.1 in the draft. FYI: the last four quarterbacks were JaMarcus Russell, Tim Couch, Eli Manning and Peyton Manning. You can see for yourself the [real] good, good, bad and ugly in the there. Pity the Panthers this season. Despite owning the worst record in the league last year, Carolina will face toughest opponent schedule this year as last year’s foes were 142-114. And unfortunately, the Panthers were one of many teams really hurt by the NFL Lockout. For two young quarterbacks (Newton and Jimmy Clausen) needing to learn a whole new playbook, it could be one giant step back for progress before Newton is able to lay down the law. The question begs: will we be witnessing Cedric the Entertainer or Cam the Quarterback.
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Green Bay (9/18)
FAST FACT: The straight up stat winner in Panthers games was 2-14 SU and 4-12 ATS last season.
NEW ORLEANS
TEAM THEME: HE DA MAN
The impact caused from this year’s NFL lockout took on different form with different teams. Most players buddied-up to stay in shape while others did their own thing. In New Orleans’ case, QB Drew Brees insisted the Saints remain on the same page as a team, both on and off the field, regardless of the cost. He arranged team workouts at Tulane University practice fields and close to 40 players attended. Brees said working together is key. He said, "We would all be working out somewhere anyway, so why not do it together? I feel like this is putting us way ahead of other teams by having it so organized." Most notably, Brees brought in his own personal trainer and paid whatever costs were necessary, including hotels for some of the younger players. When asked how much it might cost, Brees replied, "Who knows. We'll see. But it's worth it." Meanwhile, the Saints selected two players in the first round of the draft for only the fourth time in the 45-year history of the organization when they landed DE Cameron Jordan and RB Mark Ingram. Welcome to the team.
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Green Bay (9/8)
FAST FACT: Drew Brees is 10-1-1 ATS away vs. .400 or less division opponents.
TAMPA BAY
TEAM THEME: PASS THE BUC
How far have the Bucs come under Raheem Morris, you ask? Consider that last year they were favored in six contests. That’s six more games than they were favored in Morris’ first year with Tampa Bay (2009). They also helped the NFC South earn the label ‘the toughest division in the NFL’ when it was the only one in the league that featured three teams (Falcons, Saints and Bucs) with double-digit win totals last season. Okay, so they didn’t make the playoffs, nor did they beat a winning team last year until the last game of the season. And yes, they beat up on the Sisters of the Poor when they went 9-1 against .500 or less opposition and only 1-4 against winning teams. But the rapid ascent of QB Josh Freeman is hard to overlook. He’s the primary reason the Bucs’ numbers are up across the board as the defense generously benefits from not being on the field for extended periods of time. An impressive draft landed DE’s Adrian Clayborn and Da’Quan Bowers, plus depth in the defensive backfield. Give them their due. They are doing it the right way behind Morris and it shows.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Jacksonville (12/11)
FAST FACT: Tampa Bay is 0-4 SU and ATS away vs. AFC South opponents in its franchise history.
2011 NFC WEST DIVISION
The glory days of the NFC West are long gone and in the rear view mirror. Hall of Famers Joe Montana, Steve Young and Jerry Rice have been replaced by the likes of Sam Bradford, Tavarius Jackson and Larry Fitzgerald in today’s NFC West.
To illustrate exactly how much of a drop off this division has suffered, consider this: In the 1980’s the NFC West was recognized as a road monster, with teams from this loop going 176-127-6 ATS away from home, including 114-80-4 in non division games and 20-4-1 in road frays when the Over/Under total was 47 or higher points.
In the same, identical roles, the 2000’s contingent was 156-2111-12 ATS on the highway, including 82-140-8 ATS outside the division and 10-26 SU and ATS when the Over/Under total was 47 or more points.
What a remarkable drop-off. And after last year’s pathetic effort that witnessed 7-9 Seattle representing the division in the post-season it’s easy to understand whey they’ve gone from the Hall of Fame to the Hall of Shame.
The rebuilding continues with Jim Harbaugh coming over from Stanford to polish San Francisco’s tarnished star. He leaves behind Heisman-hopeful QB Andrew Luck with a plan in place.
Meanwhile, we’re betting on it being remaining the mild, mild West for a while. At least as long as the Niners’ ‘Suck For Luck’ campaign is employed this season.
Note: Team writeups excerpted from the 2011 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine, with various addendums included after the NFL Lockout was lifted. Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.
ARIZONA
TEAM THEME: THUMPTY DUMPTY
After hitching a ride to the playoffs each of the previous two years with future Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner, it was two thumbs down for Cardinals once he announced his retirement last season. And with Warner’s departure the offense dipped dramatically. The major benefit of falling so steeply is that Arizona will square off against the easiest opponent schedule in the league this year (last year’s foes were 113-143). Additionally, the trade for promising QB Kevin Kolb, along with a strong draft that stocked the team with four picks etched as starters for years to come, looks promising. Meanwhile, Ken Whisenhunt has managed to keep his head above water in four years with the franchise. He’s been terrific at home in games off a loss (15-4 SU and 13-6 ATS), especially against opponents off double-digit wins (9-0 SU and ATS). If he’s able to take care of business early on, especially on the road, he’ll likely take advantage later as the last seven foes on this year’s slate were sub .500 teams last year while four of the final five games of the season are at home. Better late than never.
PLAY ON: home vs. Seattle (1/1)
FAST FACT: Cardinals are 6-0 ATS vs. an AFC North opponent off a win.
ST. LOUIS
TEAM THEME: A BIG LIFT
The Rams raised a few eyebrows last season when they made Sam Bradford the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. A year later those same critics are awaiting new brow lifts as Bradford took the league by storm when the seven games he won were one more than in the previous three years combined. St. Louis was also were ecstatic when they landed DE Robert Quinn of North Carolina with the 14th pick in the 1st-round of this year’s draft. Sure, he has been playing since his senior year in high school with a benign brain tumor that is checked out every six months. And the 21-year old didn't play during his senior season at North Carolina because of a violation of NCAA rules. Safe to say Rams GM Billy Devaney is not comfortable making safe picks. But after the success they realized last year behind the NFL’s Rookie of the Year, they knew the next big step forward was tweaking a defense that improved 46 yards and seven points per game last season. Additionally, at the insistence of new OC Josh McDaniels, the Rams also added three weapons for Bradford. The stakes have been raised in St. Louis.
PLAY ON: vs. Green Bay (10/16)
FAST FACT: The Rams are 0-28 SU and 4-24 ATS as division home dogs of three or more points.
SAN FRANCISCO
HARD BALL
The preseason favorites to capture the NFC West division last season, the Niners gagged worse than a Linda Lovelace stand-in. As a result Iron Mike was dropkicked in favor of Jim Harbaugh, former mentor at Stanford. Frisco hit the draft hard and addressed their two biggest needs with their first two picks in LB Aldon Smith and QB Colin Kaepernick. Sleeper picks included RB Kendall Hunter of Oklahoma State, who figures to step right in as Frank Gore’s backup, and 7th round, 2-time CUSA defensive Player of the Year DE Bruce Miller. QB Alex Smith figures to be asked to keep the seat warm until Kaepernick develops (something Smith never did). Fortunately, Harbaugh’s troops will take on the 3rd easiest opponent schedule this year. In a division that appears wide open, it would be no surprise to find this team playing hardball right down to the final game. While most college coaches tend to struggle at this level, Harbaugh looks to be the right fit for the right team.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Cincinnati (9/25) - *KEY off BB wins
FAST FACT: The Niners are 2-14 SU and 5-11 ATS in Games Three and Four the last eight years.
SEATTLE
TEAM THEME: PARADISE BY THE DASHBOARD LIGHT
Safe to say the Seahawks were a blessed team last season. It’s not often a team that is outscored and outyarded 6 points and 75 yards per game respectively even sniffs the playoffs, let alone participating in them. For that, Pete Carroll can thank the gods that his team resides in the weakest division in the league. Otherwise he’d be taking the heat for all of the deficiencies. New offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell brings his West Coast playbook to Seattle but because of the lockout he didn’t have the luxury to work with and sort out the Tavarius Jackson/Charlie Whitehurst controversy. Meanwhile, Carroll realizes his team needs to learn to beat winning teams (3-12 SU and ATS last two years versus same) in order to become a winning team. After all, wining and dining ugly girls doesn’t necessarily mean you’re going to always get lucky. You have to learn first to outmaneuver the opposition before you’re going to score. And before we entertain any thoughts of backing this team, “we gotta know right now” if they’re ready to do the dirty work… if you know what we mean.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Philadelphia (12/1)
FAST FACT: Pete Carroll is 3-17 ATS in his NFL career in games off a double-digit ATS win.