"The gypsy swore our future was right.
But come the wee wee hours, well maybe baby the gypsy lied.
So when you look at me, you better look hard and look twice.
Is that me baby, or just a brilliant disguise."

Deception can be a dangerous thing. Superstar songwriter Bruce Springsteen said it best when he penned these words... "God have mercy on the man who doubts what he's sure of."

What a powerful phrase. To travel in the shoes of a man whose most assured beliefs are lined with doubt would be to talk the talk without walking the walk. It just doesn't sell.



Neither does walking around with your chest sticking out, while accepting accolades on an achievement that may well have been clearly over one's head. This especially holds true in college football where, often times these types of teams carry a masquerade of being better than they are, albeit for the sake of one positive performance.

To site the perfect example, last season seven college football teams were fortuitous enough to knock off opponents that had entered the contest sporting a 5-0 or better record. Collectively they combined to go just 2-5 ATS in the following game. The beauty, though, occurred when Louisville upended a then 7-0 Cincinnati squad as 10-point dogs. The linemaker somehow became immediately infatuated with the Cardinals when he installed them as a road favorite the next week at Connecticut. As expected, Louisville crapped their pants when the Cardinal lost, 21-17, in their brilliantly disguised role as road chalk!

All of which leads us to the following handicapping angle...

PLAY AGAINST any college football favorite who won SU as an underdog against a 5-0 or better opponent in their last game.

What we have here are the makings of a letdown of major proportions. That's evidenced by the fact that teams in this 'play against' role are 62-41 ATS, including 49-29 ATS if they did not enjoy a week off after the big upset. Oklahoma State and Texas will be in masquerade this week.

To make matters even more interesting, if their opponent checks in with a win percentage of .600 or greater we zoom to 20-4 ATS by fading these brilliantly disguised conceal artists. Donning the facial mask this week will be Texas, who upended previously unbeaten and top-ranked Oklahoma last week. Oh, and by the way, if our puffed-up favorite happened to cover the spread by more than 14 points in its upset win, we enter the NEAR-PERFECT ZONE, as these plays are 14-1 ATS since 1980. Can you say “Go, Tigers, go!”

It's like Bruce said about people in these types of situations... "Now look at me baby, struggling to do everything right. And then it all falls apart, when out go the lights. I'm just a lonely pilgrim, I walk this world in wealth. I wanna, if it's you I don't trust, cause I damn sure don't trust myself."

Pretty powerful stuff, to be sure. No disguises, just the perfect twist to a brilliant handicapping angle...