Highly touted Brownies crumbled this preseason when they failed to win a single game. As a result the luster has diminished as the oddsmaker has installed them as a home dog in their lidlifter. According to our database that’s a mistake. It seems teams that were winless in practice games are 11-5 ATS as dogs of more than 3 points in season openers, including 8-0 since 1999. Furthermore, teams in Game One of the NFL season that managed to win 13 or more game the previous season are just 12-25 ATS if they open on the non-division road, including 5-13 SU and ATS when tackling a 10-win opponent.
Pro Bowl QB Derek Anderson has been cleared to play for Cleveland. Pro Bowl targets Braylon Edwards (WR) and Kellen Winslow (TE) are a happy, healthy tandem and Browns’ boss Romeo Crennel is rock-solid in non-division battles (19-10-1, including 5-1-1 in fi rst four games of the season).
Titans To Surprise Jaguars
First things, first. We admit we’re fond of NFL home dogs that were in the playoffs the previous season. They play with passion and a purpose. This particular one happens to be one of three underdogs on today’s card (Tampa Bay and Washington the others) that actually improved their stats on both sides of the ball last season. On the other side of the coin, the Jaguars went from 8 wins in 2006 to 12 wins last season despite a defense that declined 36 ypg. We don’t like those numbers.
We also don’t like the fact the favorite is just 2-7 ATS in this series. We do like Vince Young’s glittering 18-12 SU and ATS mark in his NFL career starts, including 10-2 ATS in division duke-outs. The combination of both head coaches’ pointspread personalities (Jack Del Rio 5-9 as a division favorite, including 0-4 when favored less than 4 points, and Jeff Fisher 38-19 (35-22 SU) as a dog of less than 5 points) cements it. Titans jolt Jags.