Arizona State over Oregon State by 8
After allowing almost 30 points and 425 yards per game in 2011, it looked like fi rst-year HC Todd Graham had righted the defensiveship in Tempe as the Sun Devils held fi ve of their fi rst six opponents to 17 or less points this season. However, the Devils ‘D’ has been torched for 88 points the last two weeks but we’re just not sure that the defl ated Beavers will be able to take advantage. As it is, Mike Riley’s men have been held to 21 or fewer points in four games this campaign. Worse, a classic case of the dreaded ‘Bubble Burst’ is ineffect tonight in Corvallis as our database notes: teams off their 1st oss of the season, after starting 5-0 or better, who allow 16.5 or more PPG on the year, are 11-39-1 ATS as favorites of less than 28 points when facing an avenging foe since 1980. To boot, Riley is an un-Tony Robbins-like 1-7 ATS off his 1st setback of the season while his Beavers are 1-4-1 ATS as conference chalk of 7 or less points and 1-4 ATS as home favorites with conference revenge. That’s a far cry from Todd Graham’s 13-4 ATS log as a conference dog, including 10-1 ATS when taking 7 or less points. Oh, the life of Riley. We’re not sure if a 7-0 start will disintegrate into a poor fi nish (Stanford and Oregon are still on the docket) but we do know that the visitor in this series will improve to 4-0-1 ATS by the time Sunday morning rolls around. An absolute must take.
Oklahoma St over KANSAS ST by 1
If we had our way, both of these teams would play about 15 overtimes and collapse from exhaustion without either side winning the game. That’s because they sabotaged our late phones last Saturday with a pair of sterling second-half performances – the Wildcats outscored Texas Tech 42-14 while the Cowboys pitched a 27-0 shutout of TCU –and we don’t forgive and forget very easily. Still, we know many of you are anxious to pick a side and watch what should be a rock ‘em, sock ‘em affair from Big 12 country. In that case, we’ll side with the visitors from Stillwater… despite Kansas State’s strong series edge (6-2 ATS L8 / 7-1 ATS L8 home) and the Cats’ 6-1 ATS mark when playing with conference revenge. Simply put, we feel KSU (like Florida) will succumb to the pressure of being the No. 2 ranked team in the BCS poll. Plus, last week’s stomp job of the Red Raiders wasn’t as one-sided as the fi nal score indicated: Tech actually outyarded the Wildcats in the loss. Okie State Cowboys brings the nation’s top-ranked offense (586 YPG) into this contest, along with enough resilience to have rallied from 14-0 defi cit against TCU. With OSU coach Mike Gundy 39-16 SU in games in which his Cowboys own a .700 or greater win percentage, and a sterling 4-1 ATS as a dog of more than 6 points against undefeated opposition, the upset alert has been sounded.
NFL UPSETS
Cincinnati over Denver by 7
To those who scoffed at the notion that Peyton Manning was fi nished… shame on you. Currently the league’s top rated passer (109.0), Manning and his Broncos rest atop a watered-down AFC West, the only division leader in the loop one game over breakeven. Today, however, is not a good role for the future Hall of Famer as he stands just 3-7 ATS away in his career against greater than .250 teams off back-to-back losses, including 0-5 ATS if the foe is off a loss of 7 or more points. Making matters worse, the Broncos are 1-10 ATS in games off back-to-back SUATS wins when facing a sub .500 opponent. Meanwhile, the Bengals’ trump card in this affair is a menacing 7-0 ATS mark when avenging a loss versus an AFC West opponent. Our database cements the play with this beauty: NFL home dogs riding a 0-3 SUATS exact losing streak who won nine or more games last season are 14-2 ATS since 1980 if they own a win percentage of more than .333 and are facing an opponent with a win percentage of .571 or greater. In closing, keep this thought in mind: the Broncos are 7-14 SU in their last 21 road games, favored In two of those contests – both straight up losses. No, this is not Peyton’s place. It’s Jungle land, as we take our stand.
Indianapolis over Miami by 2
Here we go again, riding another underdog role with Andrew Luck and the Colts. This week they fi nd themselves taking points from a 4-3 Dolphins squad as high as it has been since it last made the playoffs in 2008. That’s the last time the Fish owned a winning record. Forget the fact Miami’s four wins have come against teams that are only 12-18 on the season. They enter Nap town off a pleasing rout of arch-rival New York knowing they are 0-12 SU and 3-9 ATS in games after jousting with the Jets. Making matters worse was the manner in which they fl attened the Flyboys. It was clearly a special teams victory given the fact that Miami was outgained 127 yards in the foray. On the fl ip side, the 4-3 Colts return to Lucas Oil Stadium sporting a 5-1 SU and 6-0 SUATS record during the regular season off back-to-back SUATS wins versus a foe off back-to-back wins. Indy is also 15-2 SU and 14-3 ATS off a SU division road win. Ryan Tannehill or not, the ‘Chuck Strong’ run of the Colts continuesbehind their new good luck quarterback.
Pittsburgh over NY Giants by 10
Batten down the hatches. No, Sandy’s sister is not coming to pay a visit to the Big Apple. The Steelers are. And they are anything but a big bag of wind. The Steel Curtain has been reinforced and the Black and Gold is hitting the opposition harder these days than presidential antagonists during the fi nal week of a no holds barred election campaign. That’s because Pittsburgh enters today’s fray having held 6 of its 7 opponents to season low – or 2nd low– yardage marks this season, including No. 1 lows in three of its ast four contests. Our NFL Coaches League database is quick to remind us Mike Tomlin is 7-1 SUATS in his career as a dog during the regular season against opponents off a win. Tomlin is also 5-0 SUATS in Game Eight’s. Meanwhile, his counterpart, Tom Coughlin's riding a 1-7 SUATS streak in Game Nine’s and the Giants are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven scrapes versus AFC opposition when Laying 3 or more points. With 112 YPG the better defense and an mposing mark in games against their two common opponents, Philadelphia and Washington (the Steelers won both games and stats by 197 yards; the Giants split the two games and lost the stats by 151 yards), the second storm to hit the city leaves with a pile of cash in its wake today.