Teams playing at HOME in this role tend to perform poorly as evidenced by a 79-101-2 ATS overall mark. Home teams in that role this week include: Arizona State, Clemson, Houston, Iowa, Maryland and San Diego State, If these teams surrendered 28 or more points in last week’s defeat they dip to 36-64-2 ATS. Houston, Iowa and Maryland qualify here. To top it off, if they are allowing 27.5 or more points per game on the season and allowed 28+ points last week they drop to 4-15 ATS, not good news for Houston. In addition, teams that allowed 28+ points last week and won four or less games last season are just 4-16-1 SU and 4-17 ATS as bummed-out hosts. Maryland finds themselves in this precarious role this week.
Teams playing AWAY in this role somehow find pointspread success, nearly reversing their home counterparts by going 94-72-1 ATS. This week finds Air Force, Baylor, California and Wake Forest taking to the road this week after having their dreams of a perfect season ruined last week. (Note: East Carolina and Texas Tech journey out in this role next week.) When these teams are also off an ATS loss they improve to 83-51-1 ATS in these ‘Game Four On The Floor’ situations, those teams this week being Baylor, California and Wake Forest.And if the opponent is off a SU and ATS loss they ratchet up to 25-10 ATS, including 21-6 ATS if they allow 25 or fewer points per game on the season. That would put Baylor in this desirable role.
There you have it... a critical Game Four theory that will likely ‘floor’ a team or two this week!