And I lost someone who’s near to me.
I’m a loser
And I’m not what I appear to be.”
I sat in the Sports Book at the Red Rock Casino in Las Vegas the first Saturday in November where a knock down, drag out football game was taking place between Miami Florida and NC State. The double-digit favored Hurricanes were hosting the Wolfpack in Miami’s homecoming game and the two teams were headed to overtime.
You could see the perplexed look on the faces of everyone in the Sports Book and on the UM players. Those in the Book who had bet Miami on the moneyline, along with the Canes themselves, realized they were both in trouble. Big trouble. After the dust had settled, NC State emerged victorious leaving Miami shell shocked. As down in the dumps as a team could be, they were then forced to prepare for Virginia the following week in what would be the last game ever to be played at the legendary Orange Bowl. Good luck.
The loss by the Hurricanes against the Wolfpack set the table for one of my favorite college football handicapping ploys, namely fading teams in games off an overtime loss. That’s easy enough to do since, prior to the start of the 2008 season, all overtime losers are 130-150-6 ATS in their following game since the inception of extra-session games in 1996. These down-in-the-mouth losers are especially flat when returning home off overtime defeats where they are have been a 38% proposition, going 47-71-3 ATS.
The best role in which to fade these embittered mourners occurs when we -
PLAY AGAINST any college football team as a home favorite if they lost SU in overtime the previous game.
As expected, once a loser - still a loser. That’s evidenced by the fact that these teams are just 25-44-2 ATS. Put them up against a team that knows how to win (.500 or greater) and they regress even further, going 11-27 ATS.
Better yet, pair these despaired home favorites up against .500 or better opponents in games after falling in overtime in which they scored 27 or more points and they dip to 5-19 ATS, including 2-15 ATS when facing a conference foe. Last year one qualifying play occurred when eventual national champion LSU hosted Auburn immediately after falling, 43-37, in OT at Kentucky the prior week. The 10.5-point favored Bengals needed a desperation touchdown pass in the waning seconds of the game to escape the visiting Tigers, 30-24.
There you have it. In the words of the Fab Four, who asked, “What have I done to deserve such a fate, I realize I have left it too late. And so it’s true, pride comes before a fall, I’m telling you so that you won’t lose all.”