Minnesota over Iowa by 7

Lots of good statistical and trend ammo here as the Gophers are deadlocked with the Hawkeyes at 1-3 in the Big Ten and 4-3 overall, but bring the better defense into this fray (Minny gives up 63 YPG less than Iowa). Minnesota head coach P.J. Fleck is 20-8 ATS away, including 13-3 ATS against .500 or greater opponents. But it’s a jawdropping 14-0-1 ATS mark as Big Ten dogs of more than 4 points that paves the way here, while double revenge – including the only home defeat of the season last year – cements it. Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes are ranked No. 124 in Red Zone Offense while being outgained 30 YPG this season. They’re also a ‘leaking oil’ favorite, having been outyarded in each of their last four games. Keep in mind that the Hawks have Ohio State on deck and are just 3-9 ATS at home before facing the Buckeyes. Finally, Iowa was one of a whopping eight teams that played in an overtime affair last week and with it, our well-oiled machine supplies THE CLINCHER: CFB home favorites off one loss-exact in overtime are 3-15 ATS when facing a winning avenging foe.

NEW MEXICO ST over Arkansas St by 6

DE Javon Rolland-Jones (remember that name) leads the nation with 36 career sacks, and needs just 8 more to catch Terrell Suggs for the all-time FBS mark. While the Red Wolves are back in their customary position of challenging for the Sun Belt title (3-0 in conference games, trailing 4-0 Appalachian State), the pressure is always on. The problem here is that they have coughed up seasonhigh yards in all three of their road games this year. (Where else are you going to read that other than in the Playbook?) Meanwhile, at 3-4 SU the Aggies are in a position to go bowling for the fi rst time since a 10-0 NMSU team went to the Sun Bowl in 1960. In fact, their last winning season was in 2002. This veteran Aggies team with 17 returning starters has improved its offense 6 points and 55 YPG, and its defense 8 points and 113 YPG. They’ve also been especially effective as home underdogs, covering four of the last fi ve games in that role.

Pro Picks

MIAMI over Baltimore by 6

Free at last. Free at last. Thank the Lord; we’re free at last. That’s the mantra in the Dolphins’ locker room these days with quarterback Jay Cutler’s fractured ribs a gift from the heavens. Not only does head coach Adam Gase no longer need to perpetually defend the signing of the $10 million stop-gap signal caller, but it now frees the team to operate its offense in a more effective manner behind reliable backup QB Matt Moore, who rallied the team with 17 4th quarter points in last week’s come from behind win over the New York Jets. It doesn’t hurt that Moore is 20-9 ATS in all of his starts, including 10-4 ATS away NFL career. And it couldn’t come at a better time with Miami a stellar 5-0 ATS on Thursdays following consecutive wins, as well as 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in Game Seven of the season against non-division foes. On the fl ip side, the quivering Ravens have surrendered season high – or 2nd high – yards in 4 of their last 6 games. They walloped the Fish, 38-6, here last year, handing Gase the worst loss of his young NFL career, snapping a 6-game Dolphin win skein in the process. With Baltimore QB Joe Flacco 6-12 ATS at home against opponents off consecutive wins, and the Black Birds 0-6 ATS at home off a non-division contest when facing a foe off a division game, we turn to THE GLUTEN-FREE CLINCHER: Miami QB Moore is 6-0 ATS in his NFL career against greater-than .400 opponents off consecutive SUATS losses.

DETROIT over Pittsburgh by 10

The biggest slaughter in the history of the famous Westgate Super Book Contest occurred last week when the top eleven consensus picks went 0-11, with Pittsburgh’s takedown of Cincinnati leading the barrage. Through it all the Steelers, along with Philadelphia, now hold wide 2-game leads atop their divisions. And with a bye week on deck, the Black-and-Gold are feeling mighty comfortable these days. And that would be a major mistake considering the Burghers are 0-5-1 ATS following the Bengals. And QB Ben Roethlisberger is 1-7 ATS in games following a SUATS Bengals win when facing a foe off a SUATS loss. Toss in a rotten 8-19-1 ATS mark following consecutive wins when coming off a division game under coach Mike Tomlin, including 3-10 ATS away, and you get our drift. On the other side of the coin, Lions head coach Jim Caldwell is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS against AFC North opponents. Yes, Detroit is only 1-8 SU in its last 9 games against the Steelers, and 0-5 SUATS in its last five Sunday night appearances, but one team is fat in this contest and the other is not. With that, we’ll prepare to trim the fat with THE CLINCHER: The Steelers are 1-5 SU and 0-5-1 ATS in games before their bye week the past six seasons.