BYU over Boise St by 6

When the South Point posted its ‘Games of the Year’ lines at the end of May, you would have had to lay 6 points with Kilani Sitake’s Cougars. Now, four months and fi ve games later, the homestanding Cougars check in as 8.5-point dogs. Granted, the 1-4 Cougs appear to have lost their claws after an opening-win scrimmage over Portland State but it’s not like the Broncos have been anything special, losing two games in September for just the third time in 16 years. In fact, the Broncos have struggled mightily under Bryan Harsin, going 18-24-1 ATS in all games, including 3-12-1 ATS the last 16 contests. They’ve also surrendered more yards than they’ve gained this season while allowing 29 PPG, a twist that brings into play our INCREDIBLE STAT on page 3. In addition, the Mormons are 59-12 SU at home the last 12 years (0-2 this season) with only seven losses by more than 7 points. They’re also 3-0 SUATS in games when riding a 4-game losing skid exact. And if you still don’t think these Cougars are eager for this visit from the ‘Boise’ in blue, check out THE CLINCHER: BYU is 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS at home following a SU favorite loss.

LSU over Florida by 7

Go ahead and scoff… we understand. If ever the Bayou Bengals looked ripe for slaughter, it’s NOW. But this trip could also be just what the doctor ordered for the home-stale Tigers – getting away from Death Valley where they’ve failed miserably in each of the last two weeks. The all-knowing database concurs, noting that CFB road dogs off three consecutive ATS losses, the last as a double-digit favorite, are 16-4 ATS if they won 8 or more games the previous season. Florida QB Feleipe Franks takes over for good (we think) from Luke Del Rio, who broke his collarbone last week and is out for the season (the hard-luck Del Rio had undergone two offseason shoulder surgeries earlier this year). However, we think the Florida offense is a fraud and last week’s late gravy cover over Vandy brings value to the play. With leading WR Tyrie Cleveland out today for the Gators with an ankle injury, we remind you that LSU was the 3-point favorite in this game at the South Point in Vegas when they posted their ‘Games of the Year’ plays before the season began. Yes, LSU’s Ed ‘Mushmouth’ Oregeon sucks in games against winning SEC foes, but he is also 4-0 ATS in his career when not favored by 20 or more points games following a SU favorite loss, which ties nicely into THE CLINCHER: LSU is 15-4-1 ATS as a dog following a SU favorite loss, including 12-1-1 ATS when facing a greater-than .700 opponent.


MIAMI over Tennessee by 10

Call this the Chubby Checker special this week – our ‘how low can you go’ ditty. After getting their asses kicked in front of the Queen last week, the road weary Dolphins fi nally return to Miami to host their home opener with more mud on their face than the Kardashians at a press conference. Yes, we’re aware of the fact [we’re the ones reporting it, for god’s sake] that NFL teams are 0-5 SU in their home opener in Game 4 of the season since 1989. But we also know that dogs in home-opening games off a shutout loss are 3-1 ATS since 2000. Better yet, Miami is 25-12 SU in home openers, and also 8-1 ATS in NFC sandwich games. Meanwhile, the Titans are 3-12-1 ATS before facing the Indianapolis Colts, 1-5 SUATS in their last six games against AFC East opponents, and 2-8-1 ATS away following the Houston Texans. The bottom line, though, is there is no better elixir in the NFL than red-faced humiliation. And the red Fish are frying. THE CLINCHER: NFL non-division dogs off a shutout loss are 34-10 ATS against .500 or less opponents since 1980, including 8-0 ATS versus foes off a SU favorite loss.

SEATTLE over LA Rams by 13

If history has a say in this game – and it usually does – it could be argued that the wrong team is favored today. The surprising Rams, who haven’t been to playoff game since 2005, adorn themselves with favorite’s clothing for the 4th time this young season, on the heels of last week’s upset win at Dallas knowing they are 1-5 ATS at home between away games, and 1-5 ATS in division games following consecutive away games. Enter the postseasontested Seahawks, a playoff squad each of the last fi ve seasons, who are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in games before their bye week the last fi ve seasons, as well as 16-7 SUATS following an AFC opponent, including 5-0 ATS as a dog. Yes, the success of the Rams has been pleasant, but an 11-30-2 ATS mark since 2012 by 1st-year coaches that fi nd themselves favored in games following a SU underdog win has not. And fi nally to rest our case.