NC STATE over Wake Forest by 11

Thanks to an offense that tallied a whopping 734 yards, the 6-4 Deacons took care of bowl business with last week’s 64-43 comeback win in Syracuse. The problem is they allowed 621 yards to the Orange on the heels of surrendering 710 yards at Notre Dame the prior week. An even bigger issue is the fact the Demons’ head coach Dave Clawson is 1-15 SU versus .666 or greater foes from Game Five out. It also doesn’t help that Wake is 2-5 ATS in the fi rst of back-to-back homers or that the ‘Pack are 3-0 SUATS in this matchup of late (average score 37-15) as well as 8-1 SU and 7-2 in this series when the Demons arrive off a SUATS win. And though State (7-3, 5-1) is locked into second in the ACC Atlantic, the Wolfpack still reside in the Top 25 and would garner a big bowl payday with a 9-win season. More importantly, their head coach resides in THE CLINCHER: Dave Doeren is 14-2 SU and 12-3-1 ATS away in conference play off a conference game when owning an equal or better record, including 9-0 SU and 8-0-1 from Game Nine out.

Florida Int’l over FLA ATLANTIC by 1

This year’s Shula Bowl is a battle of the two most improved teams in the CUSA, behind two of the most celebrated new coaches this season in FIU’s (FIT) Butch Davis and FAU’s (FAT) Lane Kiffi n. The Owls from Boca started 1-3 SU early on before ripping off six straight wins (5-1 ATS) by a lopsided average of 21.9 PPG. But while FAT has been winning in blowout fashion and seems like the obvious choice tonight, our MIDWEEK ALERT warns us that Owlsley and company have lost the yardage battle in each of their last three contests, make them a dreaded ‘leaking oil’ favorite. Kiffi n’s kids also allowed Louisiana Tech a season-high 511 yards in last week’s 48-23 ‘inside-out’ phony victory. Meanwhile, not only does Davis own a superb 15-5 ATS log as a dog in games after allowing 24 or more points (winning 10 of those games straight up), the Panthers take the fi eld with a decided series edge of late, going 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in the previous six meetings. And despite the fact that both foes are already bowl-eligible, FAU holds a ‘fat’ 2-game lead in the CUSA East over FIU and Marshall with two game to plays – meaning Davis’ team won’t leave any bullets in the chamber here. And then there is Kiffi n’s proclamation that FAT owns more wins this season than Florida and Florida State combined. Talk about a ‘fathead’. Finally, the best argument we can make on behalf of the Panthers comes courtesy of THE CLINCHER: FAU is 0-10 ATS as a favorite against an avenging opponent since 2009.


BUFFALO over LA Chargers by 8

Let’s set the table, if we may. It’s been 18 years since the Bills last made a playoff appearance. And after last week’s no-show effort against the Saints, there are not many fans left in Buffalo these days with even a whimper of the postseason on their minds. But the fact of the matter is the Bills would be the No. 6 seed in the AFC were the playoffs to begin this week. Plus, after last week’s red-faced loss, it’s safe to say the gambling public will be as extinct as the city’s namesake today. And being as contrarian as we are, that’s how we like it. The good news for Bills backers today is their 7-2 SUATS record following an NFC game, including 7-0 SUATS when seeking revenge. On the other side of the coin, the Bolts are 0-6 ATS in their 5th home game of the season, as well as 1-6 ATS at home following an NFC game. Incredibly, our INCREDIBLE STAT on page 3 calls out the fact that the Chargers have lost 20 games by one possession (7 points or fewer) the last twoplus seasons. The culprit behind the Chargers’ lack of success in closecall games is none other than QB Phillip Rivers, who is 9-18 SU and 6-20-1 ATS as a home favorite of 5 or less points. To put the fi nal wrap on this call, we hand it off to THE CLINCHER: Chargers QB Rivers is 0-6 SUATS in his NFL career as a favorite of 5 or fewer points against AFC East opponents. [THIS JUST IN: Rivers is currently in concussion protocol and may not play Sunday. If he can’t go, it would end his streak of 185 consecutive regular season starts.]