NO. 1 SEEDS DO NOT LIKE TO LOSE
You might beat them once. Twice in a row is another story.
That’s confirmed by the fact that No.1 seeds are 15-9 SU and 17-7 ATS in games off a SU and ATS loss if they own a win percentage of .700 or more since 1996.
Put these top-flight teams on the road off a SU loss and they improve to 13-5 ATS, including 12-2 the last 14 games.
Life may be cozy at home, but the money can be found on the road.
Our database finds visiting teams are moneymakers in the championship round, cashing 57% of the time, going 59-44-2 ATS. Better yet, put them in a game with the Over/Under total is 181 or higher and they improve to a 67% winning proposition, going 48-24-1 ATS
Put these same teams on the road in games with a total of 181 or more off a SU and ATS loss and they ratchet all the way up to 17-4 ATS.
RETURN TO EARTH
Defense rules in the championship round.
When teams manage to score an inordinate amount of points in any one game, they return to the earth faster than a spaceship from a mission.
That’s validated by the fact that teams who score 110 or more points in a championship round showdown are just 7-12 SU and 5-14 ATS in their next contest.
Dress these same teams up as favorites after igniting the scoreboard and they short-circuit out, going 2-12 ATS.
While the famed ‘Zig-Zag’ theory has unraveled the last 10 years in the playoffs, it still works in this round… if you work it right.
To do so you want to play on a dog off one loss exact in the championship round, as they are 20-15 ATS.
Take 5.5 or more points in this role and they increase to 12-5 ATS, including 10-2 ATS if they own a win percentage of .636 or more.
There you have it. Four time tested Championship Round theories. Play sharp as a marble and for keeps and, like the eventual champions, you too shall rule.