WEST VIRGINIA over Texas by 10

With Texas losing to Oklahoma State, Bevo has fallen into a first place tie with Oklahoma and West Virginia at 4-1. For the Longhorns a victory would be ultra important because they would control their destiny to becoming Big 12 regular season champions. However, if we have learned anything about coach Tom Herman’s club, they are seldom trustworthy. While Texas was not actually in the ‘Bubble Burst’ role, they sure appear to be so as they just coughed up the top spot inthe Big 12 conference with last week’s choke job at Oklahoma State. Another bad sign for the Horns, they are 1-6 ATS with a winning record when coming off a SU favorite loss. The Mountaineers will land in Austin with two extra days of rest after blasting Baylor at 58-14, handily covering the -14.5 points. Dana Holgorsen might not be the sharpest coach in college football but his ‘Teers are 4-2 ATS against Texas and 7-2 ATS as Big 12 road underdogs of a touchdown or less. And there’s always THE CLINCHER: The Mountaineers are 13-4 SU and 14-3 ATS away against foes coming off a SU favorite loss, including 6-0 SUATS the last six and 8-0 ATS when coming off a SUATS win.



IOWA over Purdue by 11

Who can get up off the mat after last week’s discouraging road losses? Trailing 30-24 in the fi nal quarter of a seesaw slugfest at Penn State, Iowa had a 1st-and-goal at the Lions’ 3-yard line with 3:00 left – and QB Nate Stanley promptly tossed a game-killing pick. "This one’s going to hurt,” said head Hawkeye Kirk Ferentz. Purdue also managed to hang around for most of its battle against Michigan State but a 48-yard breakaway TD pass reception put the game out of reach for the Boilers with less than 2 minutes remaining. “We did not get ready to play this game,” said Purdue HC Jeff Brohm. Okay, boys… no excuses this time. We’ve been big Boiler backers this season but not this week, not with them just 1-3 In The Stats their last four games. And certainly not with ‘Due now 2-10 SUATS in its last 12 conference games when coming off a SU favorite loss. Iowa lost to the Boilermakers last year as 6.5-point home chalk, 24-14, but the series visitor has cashed every time in the last eight meetings. The Hawkeyes also stand 4-0 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games, and their 8-0 ITS success this season means they’re a SMART BOX play to boot. We have great respect for Purdue’s Brohm but Ferentz has seen it all, calling the shots on the Iowa sideline for the last 20 years. That’s a perfect segue into THE CLINCHER: Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz is 15-5 ATS in conference games with an equal or better record when both teams are coming off a loss, including 12-3 SU and 13-2 ATS when coming off a loss of 6 or more points.

NFL


PITTSBURGH over Baltimore by 1.

Don’t look now but the Steelers are on their muscle. After a troublesome 1-2-1 start to the season, the Steel Curtain is coming down hard on opponents, entering today’s game on a 3-0 SUATS win skein. Meanwhile, the fast-starting Ravens are backpedaling, having dropped 3 of their last four games after opening 3-1 in September. With it our well-oiled machine chimes in noting that the Steelers are 20-7-2 ATS as division dogs since 2000, including 6-2 SU and 8-0 ATS when coming off a double-digit win. Big Ben and the boys will be looking to avenge a 26-14 home loss suffered to the Black Birds last month knowing the Steelers are 5-0 ATS as dogs in this series when coming off a win of 7 or more points. In a matchup of two teams on opposite ends of the teeter-totter, we wrap it up with THE CLINCHER: Pittsburgh is 11-2 ATS as a division dog behind Ben Roethlisberger against foes with at least one win on the season, including 5-0 ATS when coming off ATS win or 3 points or more.

Green Bay over NEW ENGLAND by 1


The Packers bring the type of numbers we like – namely an underdog with the better offense and the better defense – into this battle, something we’re sure our sister publication the MIDWEEK ALERT will likely comment more on when the publication comes out later this week. The hard-luck cheeseheads enter tonight’s game at 3-3-1 on the season knowing they are 34-16 SU and 29-20-1 ATS in games with a .500 or less record behind QB Aaron Rodgers, including 12-3 SU and 11-3-1 ATS against foes sporting a winning record (5-1 ATS as a dog). Not to mention Rodgers’ superb 5-0 ATS career mark as a dog of more than 6 points. And we’d be remiss if we didn’t call out the fact that the Cheesecake Factory is 9-0 ATS versus non-division opposition when coming off a nondivision game and facing a foe off a division contest. Meanwhile, the Pats enter off Monday night’s late win-and-cover over division rival Buffalo and stands just 7-9 SU and 5-9-2 ATS in Monday night division followups. Look for the Pack to improve to 7-1-1 ATS the last nine games in this series, including 5-0 ATS in their last five at Foxborough, tonight. TS win of 3 or more points.