I know I make mistakes
I'm living life day to day
It's never really easy, but it's ok.”
According to Webster’s dictionary the word REST can take on many meanings. For individuals it can mean to relax or take time off; a state or period of refreshing freedom from exertion. It can also be a stopping place for shelter or relaxation. Or perhaps something used for support.
As a verb it can be used to describe a state of tranquility, or to restore energy by means of relaxation. Verbalized, it could depict one who is dead and free from earthly concerns.
While examining the rest factor in the NFL, I came across some eye-opening results. For instance, did you know that losing teams fare better than winning teams when playing with the benefit of a week of rest? They do. According to our powerful database, entering this season and since 1980 teams with a win percentage of .333 or less are 117-92-1 (56%) on the blind with a week of rest (6-3 last season). Those with a win percentage of more than .333 are moneyburners at 215-226-9 ATS over the same span.
Better yet, .333 or less rested home teams are 68-51-1 ATS. And if they are hosting a division foe they improve to 40-25 ATS, or a 61.5% winning play.
Then again, we can really get down to separating the good sleepers from the insomniacs by simply taking as many points as possible when our rested teams are at home. By ignoring win percentages and concentrating on taking points, we find any division home dog with rest to be a 40-26 ATS winning system, including 24-9 ATS when the home puppy is off a SU and ATS loss. And the more points we take the better as dog of more than 5 points are 12-2 ATS in this particular role.
The bottom line to rested dogs in the NFL comes down to this: Put them at home and feed them as many bones (re: points) as you can and you’ll have a content canine. The best of all roles, though, occurs when we -
In its simplest form, these puppies are 29-9 ATS in all games since 1980. Put them up against an opponent that won 14 or fewer game the previous year and they improve to 25-5 ATS. And if these same guys did not lose to the spread by more than 10 points in their last game they are 22-2 ATS! Last year the New York Jets were 9-point home dogs against Pittsburgh when they shocked the Steelers, winning 19-16 in overtime. This week the Miami Dolphins do the honor when they host San Diego.
To find the 17-0 ATS perfect subset inside this angle simply log online to http://www.PLAYBOOK.com and click on the 2008 BLACK BOOK link inside the HANDICAPPER’S LOUNGE.
So while it’s never wise to rouse a sleeping dog, our best advice is to let him wake up on his own. Chances are, with plenty of rest, he’ll wake up with plenty of vim and vigor…