Friday, January 03, 2014
Marc Lawrence Bowl and Playoff Upsets Jan. 3-5
Clemson over Ohio St by 6
If you’re a Clemson fan, the last thing you want to hear about is the Tigers’ previous trip to this bowl, a 70-33 blowout loss to West Virginia – a loss so one-sided that many were deluded into thinking QB Geno Smith could flourish in the NFL. Something you will appreciate hearing, though, is an absolute ton of trends that should very likely converge to bury the Buckeyes tonight. Ready? New Year’s Day and later ACC bowlers are 9-3-1 ATS off SUATS loss, all ACC bowl dogs off a loss are 17-4-1 ATS, including 12-1 ATS 12-1 ATS when getting +3.5 or more points, and ACC bowl dogs off a loss are 17-
4-1 ATS! Wait it gets better – or worse if you’re an Ohio State fan. New Year’s Day and later Big 10 bowlers are just 2-16 SU and 3-15-1 ATS off DD ATS loss, and the Bucks are a weak 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS of late in bowl games off a loss. The Clincher? Bowl teams off their first loss of the season that won 7 or more games last year and allow more than 15.5 PPG on the season are 0-6 ATS since 1990. Whew! Don’t expect a cakewalk as OSU HC Urban Meyer is a fearsome 48-4 SU and 34-10-1 ATS versus non- conference opposition, besides being 6-1 SUATS in bowl games. But the Buckeye defense is clearly down a notch, best illustrated by allowing 34 points to offensively-challenged Michigan State in their bitterly disappointing Big 10 Championship game loss. With Clemson’s ‘D’ leading the nation in tackles for loss (9.4 per game), we’ll call for Tiger QB Tajh Boyd to keep pace with OSU’s Braxton Miller and pull out a late upset win for Clemmie.
GREEN BAY over San Francisco by 3
Simply put, we just don’t feel that this 49ers team is as good as the one from last year: Kaepernick is defi nitely not as sharp, and the defense is not as dominant. Nor do we feel strongly that the Niners can go into the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field and beat a recovered Aaron Rodgers in the clutch. The Green Bay signalcaller owns a 5-3 SUATS mark in the playoffs, and the early game forecast is for 17 degrees with snow flurries possible. San Fran has won and covered just 5 of the last 19 showdowns between these two squads. HC Jim Harbaugh has had good success over non-division opponents, going 26-9 SU and 26-8-1 ATS – including
12-3 SU and 13-2 ATS away – and is 3-0 SUATS mark over Mike McCarthy. However, Super Bowl losers are 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS since 1980 in opening playoff games on the road the following season. There is also a serious revenge angle here since the 49ers knocked the Pack out of the playoffs last season, then came back and 0-4-1 ATS since 1980 in opening playoff games on the road the following season. There is also a serious revenge angle here since the 49ers knocked the Pack out of the playoffs last season, then came back and that them again in the opening weekend this year. The all-powerful database kicks in with two interesting trends: 8-win teams are 5-0 ATS in the playoffs since 2000, and are 3-0 SUATS all-time as playoff hosts. Plus, NFL playoff home dogs are 20-14 and 22-12 ATS since 1980, including 15-7 SU and 16-6 ATS when seeking revenge. Green Bay has waited a long time for some payback, and they get it here. Smile and say cheese.
Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping