Saturday, May 14, 2011
NBA ROUND THREE BETTING EDGES
One month into the NBA Playoffs and we’re down to the Conference Finals. In just two weeks the season will conclude with the Championship Finals as the 2010-11 season winds its way to the finish line.
From our database, let’s take a peek and see what we can expect from teams in the Third Round of the playoffs. Remember, all results are ATS (Against The Spread) in Third Round action over the past 20 years, unless stated otherwise. Enjoy…
DOWN BUT NOT OUT
You can blow a good team out once. Twice is not as likely.
As we’ve learned, teams that fail miserably tend to bounce back rather than stay down. In fact, teams off a pointspread loss of more than 10 points are a very profitable 39-24-1 ATS in 3rd round playoff action.
BETTER TEAMS MAKE NICE DOGS
Taking points with better teams will seldom put you in harm’s way.
Teams with a better win percentage takings points are 49-39-1 ATS on the blind. When playing after a loss, they are 21-13-1 ATS in this round. Bring them in off a loss of 4 or more points and they improve to 20-8-1 ATS.
Best of all, when taking 4 or more points with a better team off a loss of 4 or more points you have a 13-2-1 ATS winning edge.
RUNNING ON EMPTY
You can hold a good team down, but not for long.
Teams that reach the 3rd round of the playoffs have established themselves as being better than most. When good teams come up with sub par scoring efforts they tend to bounce back in followup games.
That’s confirmed by the fact the road teams in Round Three who scored 78 or fewer points in their previous game are a wallet stretching 15-5-1 ATS. Better yet, if the Over/Under total in this round is less than 186 points they improve to 13-2 against the number.
There you have it. Three rock-solid betting theories you can hang your hat on throughout the 3rd round of this year’s NBA playoffs.
Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping