Wednesday, February 09, 2011
RUSTY HOME DOGS Too Much Rest Makes Rust
Generally speaking, the first rule most good handicappers look to apply is seeking out live dogs that have a realistic shot at winning the game. That’s because three things can happen when you bet on an underdog – and two of them are good.
There are, however, certain dogs that can bite the hand that feeds them if they are not conditioned to win. For the most part they are either bad teams with leaky defenses or fatigued to the point where their stats simply don’t matter.
Teams can surely become a bit too rusty due to an excessive amount of time off. This rule especially holds true to teams in College Basketball. We call them the Rust Brigade. That’s because…
Too much rest makes teams lethargic.
That’s confirmed by the fact that College Basketball teams playing at home as conference dogs with 7 or more days of rest during the regular season are 51-89-3 ATS since 1990.
That’s a dismal 36.4% ATS, making these teams prime ‘Play Against’ material. Worse…
RUSTY HOME DOGS OFF BACK-TO-BACK LOSSES DON’T CARE
Lethargic home dogs playing poorly continue to play badly.
Once again, the numbers do not lie. College Basketball teams playing off back-to-back losses at conference home as dogs with 7 or more days of rest during the regular season are 28-41 ATS since 1990.
Put them up against non-fatigued opponents (ones that have at least 3 days of rest) and they dip to 8-32 ATS in this role. Even worse…
RUSTY HOME DOGS OFF BACK-TO-BACK LOSSES GENERALLY DISAPPEAR AGAINST WINNING TEAMS
There is nothing worse than a team that knows it’s beat before they take the court.
That is born out by the fact that these rusty home dogs with a win percentage of less than .600, playing off back-to-back losses against well rested (three or more days of rest) winning conference opponents (those with a win percentage of more than .500), are just 3-24 ATS since 1990.
There you have it. A solid betting strategy to follow from now until the College Conference Tourneys begin later next month. Enjoy…
Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping