Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence has authored thousands of articles expounding on the three primary forms of sports handicapping: Fundamental, Statistical and Technical. To be a successful handicapper, blending all three forms of analysis into the handicapping equation. Marc relies heavily on a proprietary powerful database of scores, stats and results of games played since 1980, both College and Pro Football and College and Pro Basketball.

Marc has been handicapping sports professionally since 1975, having won more documented Top 10 Handicapping Achievement awards than any handicapper in the nation. He won the 2005 STARDUST FOOTBALL INVITATIONAL Contest and was a SEMI-FINALIST in the 2006 $100,000 LEROYS' MONEY TALKS Contest last season. He finished the 2006 season as the No. 1 handicapper in the NFL as documented by SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. Marc also finished No. 1 in the nation in College Football win percentage in 2005 as documented by both the SPORTS MONITOR in Oklahoma and SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. He was named HANDICAPPER OF THE YEAR in 2005 by FOOTBALL NEWS.

In 2008, he finished No. 1 in NFL win percentage according to SPORTS WATCH and also captured 1st place honors in the 2008 PLAYBOOK WISE GUYS CONTEST.

Marc has hosted a national radio show "MARC LAWRENCE AGAINST THE SPREAD" for each of the last 16 years on over 100 stations syndicated in the USA. He is a tireless handicapper who works a minimum 60-hour week during the football and basketball seasons. As a handicapper he firmly believes that three things can happen when you bet an underdog, and two of them are good. He enjoys helping others to become better informed.

Marc married his high school sweetheart 40 years ago and has one son, Marc Jr., who works with him in the industry. Aside from publishing the PLAYBOOK Football Yearbook magazine and Weekly Newsletters, Marc enjoys golf and horse racing.

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Wednesday, February 09, 2011


RUSTY HOME DOGS Too Much Rest Makes Rust


Generally speaking, the first rule most good handicappers look to apply is seeking out live dogs that have a realistic shot at winning the game. That’s because three things can happen when you bet on an underdog – and two of them are good.

There are, however, certain dogs that can bite the hand that feeds them if they are not conditioned to win. For the most part they are either bad teams with leaky defenses or fatigued to the point where their stats simply don’t matter.

Teams can surely become a bit too rusty due to an excessive amount of time off. This rule especially holds true to teams in College Basketball. We call them the Rust Brigade. That’s because…



COLLEGE HOOPS HOME DOGS WITH 7 OR MORE DAYS OF REST TURN TO RUST

Too much rest makes teams lethargic.

That’s confirmed by the fact that College Basketball teams playing at home as conference dogs with 7 or more days of rest during the regular season are 51-89-3 ATS since 1990.

That’s a dismal 36.4% ATS, making these teams prime ‘Play Against’ material. Worse…


RUSTY HOME DOGS OFF BACK-TO-BACK LOSSES DON’T CARE

Lethargic home dogs playing poorly continue to play badly.

Once again, the numbers do not lie. College Basketball teams playing off back-to-back losses at conference home as dogs with 7 or more days of rest during the regular season are 28-41 ATS since 1990.

Put them up against non-fatigued opponents (ones that have at least 3 days of rest) and they dip to 8-32 ATS in this role. Even worse…


RUSTY HOME DOGS OFF BACK-TO-BACK LOSSES GENERALLY DISAPPEAR AGAINST WINNING TEAMS

There is nothing worse than a team that knows it’s beat before they take the court.

That is born out by the fact that these rusty home dogs with a win percentage of less than .600, playing off back-to-back losses against well rested (three or more days of rest) winning conference opponents (those with a win percentage of more than .500), are just 3-24 ATS since 1990.

There you have it. A solid betting strategy to follow from now until the College Conference Tourneys begin later next month. Enjoy…


Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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