Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence has authored thousands of articles expounding on the three primary forms of sports handicapping: Fundamental, Statistical and Technical. To be a successful handicapper, blending all three forms of analysis into the handicapping equation. Marc relies heavily on a proprietary powerful database of scores, stats and results of games played since 1980, both College and Pro Football and College and Pro Basketball.

Marc has been handicapping sports professionally since 1975, having won more documented Top 10 Handicapping Achievement awards than any handicapper in the nation. He won the 2005 STARDUST FOOTBALL INVITATIONAL Contest and was a SEMI-FINALIST in the 2006 $100,000 LEROYS' MONEY TALKS Contest last season. He finished the 2006 season as the No. 1 handicapper in the NFL as documented by SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. Marc also finished No. 1 in the nation in College Football win percentage in 2005 as documented by both the SPORTS MONITOR in Oklahoma and SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. He was named HANDICAPPER OF THE YEAR in 2005 by FOOTBALL NEWS.

In 2008, he finished No. 1 in NFL win percentage according to SPORTS WATCH and also captured 1st place honors in the 2008 PLAYBOOK WISE GUYS CONTEST.

Marc has hosted a national radio show "MARC LAWRENCE AGAINST THE SPREAD" for each of the last 16 years on over 100 stations syndicated in the USA. He is a tireless handicapper who works a minimum 60-hour week during the football and basketball seasons. As a handicapper he firmly believes that three things can happen when you bet an underdog, and two of them are good. He enjoys helping others to become better informed.

Marc married his high school sweetheart 40 years ago and has one son, Marc Jr., who works with him in the industry. Aside from publishing the PLAYBOOK Football Yearbook magazine and Weekly Newsletters, Marc enjoys golf and horse racing.

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Tuesday, March 22, 2011

SWEET 16 RETURNEES… Buyer Beware

With the 2011 NCAA Tournament entering the SWEET 16 round, let’s take a different perspective in analyzing the teams that have arrived. It pertains specifically to teams that are returning to the SWEET 16 for the 2nd straight year. Do they perform like a team with experience and panache, or do they execute like CEO’s looking for golden parachutes and cushy bonuses while steering a sinking ship? Let’s take a peek.

How Do You Do

According to our database, since 1991, teams making a right-back appearance in the SWEET 16 from the previous year are 56-39 SU and 42-51-1 ATS in Round Three of the tourney. The cut-line, however, is often times the pointspread.

That’s confirmed by the fact that favorites of more than 6 points are 31-2 SU and 21-12 ATS in these games. Priced at anything less (dog or favorite of 6 or fewer points), they dip drastically to 25-37 SU and 21-39-1 ATS in competitive contests.

Last year witnessed five SWEET 16 returnees, all of whom collectively managed to go 2-2-1 ATS during this round.

All Aboard

Taking a look at this year’s list of returnees, we find no less than four teams that were here last year. They include – Butler, Duke, Kentucky and Ohio State.

Looking at it from a different perspective, one major exception to the rule is that SWEET 16 returnees seem to struggle when arriving off a win of less than 10 points, going just 13-27-2 ATS.


Worse, when SWEET 16 returnees arrive off a single digit win after having won their opening round tournament game by fewer than 15 points they drop to 7-15 SU and 4-16-1 ATS, including 2-14-1 when facing a foe off an ATS win. FYI: The life rafts ready and standing by for Butler and Kentucky.

The bottom line is you can draw your own conclusions, if you like. But make no mistake, when it comes to handicapping teams in the SWEET 16, the winners will likely be the better-qualified teams that have ‘been there-and-done that’. Or those who know how to keep a ship afloat, if you know what I mean…

Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at - One Click Handicapping
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