Tuesday, April 12, 2011
With the NBA regular season drawing to the finish line, and while we await the start of the 2011 NBA playoffs, let examine a favorite handicapping ploy that has served me well over the years at this stage of the campaign.
It all centers around team teams concluding the season that will be playing with same season triple revenge. This particular handicap works for two reasons. One –
Trips Is Enough
The fact of the matter is it’s not easy for one team to take another out four times in a row during the same season, especially during the late, late stages of the season.
According to our database, since 1991, teams playing with same season triple revenge are 57-100 SU and 84-65-1 ATS during the final two games of the season. That’s a sharp 56.3% win percentage for these hungry rats.
Better yet, dress them up as dogs in these games and they improve to 68-49-1 ATS, a 58.1% winning level.
The other reason these triple revenging dogs bark loud is complacency. Thus, reason two is -
Most teams that have managed to triple up one opponent over the course of the season are either playoff bound or ultra-confident, whereas the victims are busy making tee-times.
Thus these opponents often times find themselves playing down to the level of the thrice-beaten opponent.
And if these season-ending triple revengers were dogs of eight or more points in their previous game they are a super-sharp 28-11 ATS in these games.
FYI: there is an eye-opening 17-1 ATS winning angle inside the 28-11 situation outlined above. I’ll save that beauty and reveal the parameters when and if any such situations arise this week inside one of my Guaranteed Best Bet selections.
Mark Them Down
Meanwhile, here are the six teams that will close out the 2011 season looking to avenge hat-trick defeats:
4/11 – Houston, Sacramento and Toronto
4/13 – New York, Phoenix and Toronto
Don’t trip up. Keep an eye on them and act accordingly. I’ll return with an NBA Playoff Primer later in the week…
Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping