Sunday, November 16, 2014
Taking a Pick 10 Shot Finally Makes Sense
HALLANDALE BEACH, FL, November 15, 2014-- The HRI faithful know how I feel about the Pick 10 when it was first offered over a series of four Mondays.
The surmise is that Gulfstream wanted to kick off South Florida’s Gulfstream Park West era with a bang, and to see if the concept had legs beyond Miami Lakes, long enough to reach Dec.6, the start of the parent track‘s “championship meet.”.
To be kind, the Pick 10 was and is a way-over-the-top mimicking of the Rainbow 6, a wager that proved highly successful virtually since conception.
So popular was it, in fact, that management flirted with success by tweaking it in the hopes of doing even better. In the main, they succeeded
With a higher percentage of the winnings paid daily and a lower percentage of handle carried into the next day’s jackpot pool should a lone winner devour the entire enchilada, the wager continued to prosper.
The catch was that the dime minimum was doubled, the added cost spun as a way of allowing Woodbine bettors into the pool. In Canada, the legal minimum is 20-cents.**
Of course that was not the only motive as management sought more of a good thing. On a daily basis, the tack worked, but then it didn’t work, too.
The only time any real buzz was created is when the jackpot reached the magic million-dollar mark.
With more money being paid daily to bettors having the most winners, pots continued to grow, incrementally at first, then exponentially. When the jackpot reached a pot-of-gold status, every manner of player jumped in because the consolations often would reach four figures, enough to warrant an investment.
I’m not a big bettor by high-volume standards; somewhere between $300 and $500 per on-track gambling session dependent upon how much I’m able to churn. I bet much less online weekdays.
Beyond putting money where my feature-race mouth is, I limit my plays to horses-to-watch, a total of two or three bets a day max. I have neither the time nor inclination to do the research required to go beyond a few races.
Today, all racetracks are learning that just building it doesn’t means they will come: The entire industry has learned this with no small amount of pain, national handle cut by nearly one-third over the course of a decade, an unsustainable trend.
Even as my visits to Gulfstream increased as the championship season gained momentum, my participation in the Rainbow 6 was zero, my personal protest to the price increase.
Only after reaching a level where the reward was commensurate with the risk--for me, a pool approaching $500,000--would I look at the final six races in a sequence context.
By any measure, even at a dime, even with a 10 percent takeout, even if it was offered on a Monday when the simulcast cupboard is bare, the Pick 10 was a flop, a big one, for reasons even the late, great Ray Charles could see.
That said, I will jump into the pool tomorrow because it finally makes sense to do so. Despite the Pick 10’s absurd degree of difficulty, I feel as if I have a fighting chance to make a small score, the reward finally being worth the risk.
Notwithstanding the bet’s features listed above, the pool will be guaranteed at $25,000. I have no idea what the jackpot is now but clearly it’s not at the level it needs to be to garner interest
The reason it makes sense is that the entire pool will be distributed; Monday the mandatory payoff to those picking the most winners. All will share equally, minus the rake, of course. I’m setting the over-under success rate at 7-½ winners.
Due to Monday’s circumstances, prescient handicappers could have a very good day at a reasonable cost. Using two horses in eight races with two singles, for instance, the cost would be $25,60.
If seven winners gets it done, I might have a slim chance to win but it’s a shot worth taking. This is one of those rare instances when a bevy of impossible longshots can work in the favor of the average player.
I have no idea how much money will be bet but high-volume players are likely to pass because $25,000 represents a pittance. Either that, or they’ll throw enough money at it to hit 8 , 9 or even 10 winners.
But that’s why all this is called gambling; no one owns a secret decoder ring,
**correction re Woodbine reference made at 5:05 p.m. 111614
Written by John Pricci
Friday, November 14, 2014
Gulfstream Finds Temporary Fix to Palm Beach Workouts Flap
HALLANDALE BEACH, FL., November 14, 2014--Bruno De Julio is an independent published clocker, horse owner, bloodstock agent and syndication manager, a man certainly not lacking in either portfolio or credibility.
But when he contacted Palm Beach Downs, a training center in Del Ray Beach earlier this week, he was told that he would not be able to enter because the facility was private property, essentially racing’s version of a “gaited community.”
When he questioned what the protocol for entrance was, a PBD spokesperson, who may or may not have been the general manager, pointedly said “you want to come here for some hidden motives.”
As a private, published clocker, De Julio has a partnership arrangement with BRISnet.com to sell workout reports through their auspices. His wealth of credentials has given him access to most every major racetrack in America.
In the course of conversation, De Julio was told that no one is allowed in “for the protection of the horses.” Additionally, he was instructed that the workouts were being recorded because “horses can’t run without workouts.”
“I then informed her that over 20 horses of Todd Pletcher’s worked on Nov. 12th but no workouts were recorded,” De Julio said by phone from Del Ray Beach Thursday. I asked him how he knew that since he was denied admission:
“The workouts are up on Pletcher’s website.”
Todd Pletcher’s program often involves company workouts which he hand-times, also relying on corroboration from an assistant trainer or an official clocker. Given his prolific accomplishments, it’s safe to infer that his methods work.
When the story first surfaced, racing’s Internet outlets began buzzing. Grassroots activist Andy Asaro apprised myriad industry types of the situation and Jeff Platt, Horseplayers Association of North America CEO, sent an email to the Jockey Club which took the matter under review.
With the Palm Beach Downs issue as catalyst, the bigger question becomes: What to do with horses that run at racetracks off private training centers where most workouts are hand-timed by the people who condition them, honor bound to supply timing information for wider dissemination.
Workouts timed by trainers on the honor system? What could possibly go wrong?
In California, and at other major circuits, licensed private clockers work alongside official clockers employed by Equibase, the industry’s information disseminator responsible for official charts, past performances and workout times.
Having official and private clockers work side by side provides “a good system of checks and balances,” De Julio explained. “It’s worked very well in California.”
Clearly, the entire parimutuel system could not exist at this point in racing history without making serious attempts to supply the most reliable and transparent handicapping information available.
Another related issue might be the most important of all; the accurate timing of the races themselves. At present this is unachievable as long as there are variances in the head start or run-up horses get before the timing process begins.
Parenthetically, with respect to timing grass races, the imperfect system in place is exacerbated when the position of the temporary rail is altered, which is done to provide the safest footing possible and preserve course longevity.
The day after De Julio had his exasperating conversation with the PBD spokesperson, published workouts began to surface. Finally, by late Friday morning, the situation was resolved, albeit far from the perfect solution.
Gulfstream has reached an agreement with the owner of Palm Beach Downs property offering a compromise after it became apparent that the property owner had no interest in hiring a clocker.
Gulfstream hired its own clocker who they hope to have in place by Dec. 1 at the latest. Further, it intends to hire another to time workouts at Payson Park, another private training facility 90 minutes from Gulfstream Park.
Workouts from Palm Beach Downs and Payson Park will be published in past performance data. Gulfstream will foot the bill and later be reimbursed in part by Equibase.
Racing Vice President P.J. Campo hired a clocker who will report timing information to Equibase, the track hoping to avoid any political issues which could arise from Daily Racing Form or private clockers like De Julio seeking access.
It remains to be seen how well the system will work. With a horse population of 1,200 at Gulfstream, the track has three clockers to cover morning workouts, Daily Racing Form’s Mike Welsch as the occasional fourth man in the booth.
Palm Beach Downs has an approximate horse population of 200; Payson’s about twice that. How one person is expected to handle a crush of workouts that traditionally come after track maintenance breaks seems an extremely tall order.
Additionally, will that person be a truly skilled timer, or someone on Gulfstream’s payroll will to take information supplied to them by a horsemen and simply perform data-entry tasks for Equibase? Only time will tell.
Until then, as some other boss might say, you can’t light a fire without a spark.
Written by John Pricci
Monday, November 10, 2014
Bets ‘N Pieces
PLANTATION, FL., November 11, 2014--Turf Writers in the News: Kudos to colleague Jennie Rees
of the Louisville Courier-Journal for her election into the National Museum of Racing’s Joe Hirsch Media Role of Honor.
And a tip of the cap to the Role of Honor Committee for remembering that the late, legendary Los Angeles Times columnist, Jim Murray
, did racing proud any time he wrote about it, one of the few sports columnists--Red Smith leaps to mind--who loved Thoroughbred racing.
While I had a ‘hello-how-are-you’ relationship with Murray, I’ve had many occasions to work alongside Ms. Rees in press boxes everywhere. She is among the hardest working, knowledgeable reporters of either sex to cover the backstretches of America’s racetracks.
If there was a big event, Rees was there to cover it until only recently when the newspaper went austere on everything and Rees was forced to pick her spots. Given the way the business has gone, she’s become known among her peers as “the last turf writer…”
Encouraging news out of Boston that Bob Neumeier
is on his way to recovery after suffering a stroke while preparing to leave for Los Angeles during Breeders’ Cup week after several anxious days early on.
Of course, Neumeier has had a long, distinguished career in television and radio in greater Massachusetts and is well known to this audience for his work on national broadcasts of major racing events for the NBC television network.
Without fail, we run into “Neumy” every year at Gulfstream Park where he spends a major part of the winter months. He tells everyone that he’s getting background on the three-year-olds in the run-up to Derby, but his horse-playing buds know better.
If it is at all possible, we expect that this winter will be no different. Come on down, Robert, the weather’s fine. And we’ll see if we can arrange a Get-Well Card in honor of your return. (Ed.note: Sorry, couldn't resist).
Does anyone else find it ironic that last week, while the New York Racing Association
was offering health care insurance for jockeys, Parx Racing
was encouraging jockeys to sign an indemnity clause absolving them of any responsibility should accidents arise?
I’m not sure where I stand on this: I’m certainly not on the side of Parx, but jockeys by definition are independent contractors.
I’m all for supporting the Permanently Disabled Jockeys Fund
but insurance money has to come from somewhere. A portion has been coming out of the owners’ purse accounts. New York State has approved the measure and has set aside the funding.
The fact that the Saratoga Race Course
meet will be the same 40 days long in 2015 makes sense from a business standpoint given the unknown status of the current NYRA franchise, expected to be put out to bid by the end of next year. Obviously, nothing’s certain when state governments are involved, so who knows?
One of the reasons given for a non-extension was balking from out-of-state horsemen for the added expenses that an eight-week, 40-day stand with racing five days per week would place on the owners.
Many years ago, the notion of a Saratoga A-meet and B-meet was discussed. If something like that were implemented, out-of-staters could ship in appropriate horses depending on which “meet” was being conducted.
Nothing says that horses from out of state can’t just simply ship in for those “meets” or for individual races, right? The reason given for the status quo just seems a bit of a stretch.
Interesting that Board Chairman David Skorton
was unavailable for comment for the Albany Times Union story, and that board member Charles Wait,
Chairman and CEO of the Adirondack Trust Co. of Saratoga, refused to speak on the matter with reporter James Odato
Give me a T… gimme an R… gimme an A… gimme an N… gimme an S… gimme a P… gimme an A… gimme an R… gimme an E… gimme an N… gimme a C… gimme a Y! Now, what have you got?!
Oh? Never mind.
HorseRaceInsider would like to thank
not only all those brave souls who paid the ultimate price for service to their country, and to the many thousands of disabled war veterans, but to those fighting for our safety and freedom everywhere in the world.
Lest we forget the words of the late Gen. Douglas MacArthur
at West Point: Duty. Honor. Country.
Written by John Pricci