Monday, December 05, 2011

A Riddle Wrapped in an Enigma?

SARATOGA SPRINGS, NY, December 5, 2011— The cliché popularized by Mark Twain pertaining to the use of “lies, damn lies and statistics” is never more apt than when perusing the monthly handle figures for Thoroughbred racing.

November was a good month, I guess, since handle dropped “only” 3.47 percent, as compared to a median 7.13 percent for the entire year.

But for my life I cannot fathom with certitude whether this is a good thing or not, mostly because it’s unknown whether or not the slow-down is attributable to a greater number of racing days and thus more opportunities to wager.
Further, noting below that Wagering on U.S. Races reflects worldwide commingled handle, it’s difficult to know how much of an impact exporting the U.S. signal worldwide is helping the American game avert a slide of monumental proportions.

Of course, if you race more days, more money will be bet in the overall, although that helps bring average handle per card down as finite dollars are spread over a greater number of opportunities.

But the real difficulty regards the purse increase figures for November 2011.

How can purses go up when handle goes down over a greater number of days? And where does Racino handle fit into all this?

Is there a Breeders’ Cup effect? It’s not so much there were 15 races this year, the most ever, but perhaps tracks nationwide raced more days surrounding the event to gain maximum exposure of their own product in the local market?

To a degree, the year-over-year numbers make more sense. Overall purses should be higher on a percentage basis given fewer racing days, and presumably fewer racing opportunities results in bigger fields.

I’ve seen five furlong turf races that are easier to decipher than these figures indicate.

November 2011 vs. November 2010

Indicator November 2011 November 2010 % Change

Wagering on U.S. Races* $874,386,107 $905,848,904 -3.47%

U.S. Purses $101,876,670 $95,522,074 +6.65%

U.S. Race Days 392 375 +4.53%

YTD 2011 vs. YTD 2010

Indicator YTD 2011 YTD 2010 % Change

Wagering on U.S. Races* $9,970,704,337 $10,736,200,808 -7.13%

U.S. Purses $987,513,084 $971,187,788 +1.68%

U.S. Race Days 4,953 5,159 -3.99%

* Includes worldwide commingled wagering on U.S. races.




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