Sunday, December 03, 2017


Star Filly, Paco, and Shippers Rule Gulfstream; Sharp Azteca Ends NYRA Season in Style


It was quite the Saturday in the bonded territories of South Florida and New York. In the Big Apple, Breeders’ Cup performers dominated the Cigar Mile, sweeping the first three positions.

In the Remsen Stakes, Catholic Boy showed that he has a future on any surface and Demoiselle winner Wonder Gadot got the good trip she lacked in the Juvenile Fillies.

In Hallandale Beach, the best of the sport’s blue collar horses put on a great, competitive show with a mix of predictable favorites and many challenging price shots in a dizzying display of what the game is all about—a little something for everyone.

Horses ship into Hallandale Beach from the north all the time, but rarely from Northern California where Mended, in order to get to Gulfstream Park, first had to endure an eight hour van ride to LAX, and a layover, before finally making the long cross country trek.

She might have won by more than 6-3/4 lengths had she had a little time to catch her breath.
Before taking the track for the aptly named Glass Slipper, the equine Cinderella was saddled away from the other horses--Gunnevera style--and was the last filly to join the post parade despite a post position in the middle of the 14-filly event.

Claimed by John Martin for $12,500 in January after owner Troy Onorato picked her from three horses Martin recommended, the trainer had his work cut out when she arrived in the barn with a sore foot.

After nursing her back to health, Martin entered her back at the same distance on Feb. 19, at the same level of claim, and promptly won. It was the beginning of a 10-race winning streak that might surpass another Northern California equine legend.

The improbable run included a one mile victory on turf, a two-turn mile score on Del Mar’s quirky dirt surface, followed by a 1 mile-70 yard trip at Pleasanton, before winning her Golden Gate finale on Oct. 22 before shipping to South Florida.

After getting away a bit tardily, Mended was hustled to the lead by regular partner Ricardo Gonzalez, was pressed on the one-turn mile pace throughout, was hard ridden to open ground approaching midstretch and won geared down by continuing to widen in 1:36.42.

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Mended Gets Her Perfect 10 Geared Down
The owner had to talk Martin into shipping in for her toughest test, the trainer admitting he was choosing the softest spots he could find to protect a winning streak that has lasted 11 months.

Her 10th straight victory matched the feat of another Golden Gate legend, Lost in the Fog, the Sprint Champion of 2005, until his streak was snapped in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Prior to that he won 10 straight, including nine stakes. The late speedster is buried in the Golden Gate infield alongside the legendary stretch runner, Silky Sullivan.

Martin wants to make it to 12 straight and said he will do everything in his power to see that it happens. Wonder what Onorato will think about future spots now that his filly has conquered the Claiming Crown, parlaying a $12,500 investment into nearly $200K.

PACO, PACO, PACO


Paco Lopez brought down the curtain on the 19th annual event with a wire victory in the Claiming Crown Jewel from post 12, believed to be the first horse since Big Brown to win a nine furlong race from that slip. And he got there in a hurry, too: 1.48.76.

The gelded four year old was claimed for $20,000 by Jorge Navarro at Monmouth Park July 21. Rating kindly for Lopez throughout, he held off Flashy Jewel, an $80,000 claim at Saratoga August 23.

Unlike Mended, 2-1 favorite Gigantic Breeze was unable to make the synth-to-dirt transition and never lifted a leg, second from last of 12 runners.

Lopez also won with the Distaff Dash with Blue Bahia, a $30,000 claim on April 7 and the Tiara with Martini Glass, second in the G1 Spinster last out after starting her season in a $16,000 optional claimer at Tampa Bay Downs, March 12.

Favorites had a rough day—a Claiming Crown tradition—as did the locals. Only two winners of the nine Claiming Crown events raced in South Florida last time out, including turf sprint course record holder, Pay Any Price.
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Paco Lopez Completes
Claiming Crown Trifecta

LIFE AFTER BREEDERS’ CUP

Five horses that raced in the Breeders’ Cup on the first weekend in November returned on the first weekend in December and swept both Grade 2s for two year olds and completed the trifecta in the Cigar Mile.

Wonder Gadot, a troubled sixth in the Juvenile Fillies, rebounded in a big way, confidently handled for the first time in her five race career by Johnny Velazquez, who stalked a soft pace set by second favorite Daisy until ready and headstretch.

She separated herself from the group through the lane and, like Mended at Gulfstream, proved that she can win on dirt, turf or synthetic surfaces.

Catholic Boy, the ‘wise guy’ horse of the Juvenile Turf after winning Saratoga’s G3 With Anticipation, raced exceedingly well in his dirt debut, drawing off impressively to win the Remsen, increasing his margin in deep stretch and galloping out well after the finish.

The More Than Ready colt from the Bernardini mare, Song of Bernadette, was well handled by Manuel Franco, who has enjoyed a breakthrough season in 2017.

The rangy bay has enjoyed excellent management from Jonathan Thomas, the young trainer whose winning at a 31% clip since in his first full campaign since going out on his own after leaving his role as one of Todd Pletcher’s long time assistants.

But the star of the show was the thoroughly comprehensive victory of Sharp Azteca, who rated off a fast, contested pace for Javier Castellano, aboard for the first time. The 125 pound highweight spotted runnerup Mind Your Biscuits three pounds and third finisher Practical Joke five.

In winning his first Grade 1, Sharp Azteca, a complete picture in the paddock pre-race, made an otherwise dullish surface seem normal, stopping the timer in 1:35.17. The winning margin was 5-1/4 lengths.

With their connections seriously considering a run in the Pegasus, the front end scenario with Sharp Azteca and Gun Runner should be quite interesting, yes?

BRISKY BUSINESS

With the Cigar Mile card pushed back to the first weekend in December, with good weather and reconstituted turf course, NYRA had a big day with handle of over $11.8 million.

But Gulfstream Park appears bullet proof. With one more race, the Claiming Crown handled more than $11.9 million. Handle on the event has grown every year since it made it South Florida debut in 2012.

The Claiming Crown card topped $11 million for the first time in 2016 and increased this year by more than 7 percent.
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Getting Gulfstream 2018 in Preparedness

HALLANDALE BEACH, FL., December 3, 2017
Photos by Toni Pricci

Written by John Pricci

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Tuesday, November 28, 2017


Back To the Futures


While in good conscience I never could encourage people to bet their money six months in advance of a racing event, I couldn’t keep my own counsel this past weekend—and not for a lack of other good horses on which to bet.

And so I took several small positions in Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Futures, more for bragging rights if nothing else, though I will line up to cash if so lucky. Just as it is on a daily basis; it’s about price, not about horse.

The rule I adhere to when making future wagers is that I will not accept odds less than 30-1, which for me was written in stone after my first ever Derby futures proposition.

On what I believe was my second visit to Las Vegas, and first ever “winter book” bet, placed in a casino, I took what I remember to be 30-1 on Go for Gin. Of course, he won the 1994 Kentucky Derby and the price was set in stone from that moment forward.

Accordingly, I took 29-1 on Enticed and 37-1 on Dak Attack. (Kiaran and Dale have to win a Derby eventually, yes)?

Anyway, Kiaran’s connections owe me for Mohaymen—in truth, that was my bad—but Dale owes me nothing, as we’ve gotten lucky with him any number of times when the price was right. Of course, these are nice horses but it’s about best value available, right?

However, I do admit to being a chalk–eating weasel when it came to future betting on sires which is not as outlandish a position as one would think. So we took a small exacta box position on three of the favorites and included a fourth as a price shot:

Medaglia d’Oro, represented by Bolt d’Oro, Enticed and Montauk, wound up the 5-1 favorite in the parimutuels.

The second choice was Curlin (6-1), represented by Good Magic and Solomini.

And next up was Tapit (8-1), represented by Mask and Prince Guilherme.

Price shot Ghostzapper (27-1) has only Dak Attack among the 23 individual betting interests. All our choices have more representatives in the “All Other Three-Year-Olds” category, obviously. Then so do all the others.

And so we took a four-sire exacta box, pressing the play with Medaglia d’Oro in two positions. Interesting are the $2 exacta payoffs, which range from $42.00 to $226 [rounded] with the favorite on top, and from $312 to $776 with Ghostzapper’s kids.

For informational purposes (seriously), interested Derby fans should check out the sires’ template at http://www.kentuckyderby.com. Not only will you see the sire with its current offspring, lineage and connections, but how the sire fared in past Derbies. Cool stuff.

One trend that has dominated in two decades of the straight Future wagers was repeated: “All Other Three-Year-Olds” is the favorite, this year at 6-5. Following behind are Juvenile third Bolt d’Oro (7-1), and Juvenile winning Good Magic at 11-1.

After nine late nominees, a total of 377 horses eventually were nominated to the 2016 Kentucky Derby. Derby Fever is a particularly virulent strain.

The First Saturday in December


Saturday is the lid-lifter of the prime winter race meet at Gulfstream Park. It also marks, for all intents, the closing of the graded stakes season in New York.

Doubtlessly—or should I say hopefully--there will be an all-graded-stakes Late Pick 4 at the Big A, and the NYRA Late Pick 5 with a 15% takeout will make a cameo for one final hurrah for the year. [The bet is offered to NYRABets customers only].

Since the Remsen has proven more of a negative Derby barometer for some time now, perhaps the race, the horsemen, and the horses themselves would be better served by cutting the race back from 9 furlongs to a one-turn mile over the new year-round surface.

It just presents more options for all concerned, and the sophomore debut doesn’t have to be a counter-productive turnback. Rather, it would be more of a natural progression as youngsters develop. The same can be said for the Demoiselle fillies.

These longer races were fine when New York had clearly defined seasons which of course is a relic of the past. Since year-round racing is not going anywhere, a shorter Remsen makes sense. It very likely would be more competitive as well.

I understand that the Jerome is now one mile on New Year’s Day. Horses not ready for Saturday could run there, or in both, since there are four weeks in between; just enough. Besides, there’s plenty of time to run a mile and an eighth. The Wood Memorial is April 7.

Gulfstream Park opens with the Claiming Crown, where horses that have run for a tag sometime during the year can choose from races worth an aggregate $1.1 million.

The following week is a very interesting curiosity, the Clasico Internacional del Caribe, making its debut on this continent the following Saturday. The headliner would be Justiciero, winner of the Puerto Rican Triple Crown. There are five Caribbean events in all.

The next big Saturday is January 27th with the second running of the Pegasus World Cup, the last scheduled start for certain-to-be Horse of the Year Gun Runner. There will be seven other added-money events on that program, four of them graded.

But Gulfstream Park will always be about Florida Derby Day, which brings down the championship season portion of the program on March 31. The 9 furlong Grade 1 has been on a roll, producing three of the last five Kentucky Derby winners.

HALLANDALE BEACH, FL., November 28, 2017


Written by John Pricci

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Sunday, November 19, 2017


So Which Is It: Race Results or Body of Work?


Today’s thought started out as a thread on Tom Jicha’s most recent offering where the topic was: Which horse might be this year’s rightful three-year-old champion?

The discussion later talked about the relative merits of the Kentucky Derby vs. the Travers Stakes as to which is the more influential race with respect to end-of-year championship titles.

In TJ’s defense—not that he needs any from me—he did not make up a false equivalency when he talked about how trainers, when met by non-racing fans, are never whether they ever won the Travers.

On this, you don’t have to take Jicha’s word. It’s trainers themselves, when asked as first-time combatants or Derby winners, the first question is always "have you ever won the Kentucky Derby?".

It’s the same for jockeys, that's because there’s nothing quite like it in this country or anywhere in the world. America didn't raid Europe or the Far East in the 1970s when seeking the best livestock, it was the place where most of the best horses in the world are born.

There may be more prestigious races in the world; the Arc de Triomphe, Melbourne Cup, etc., but none with the worldwide cache of the Derby.

And even foreign fans concede that no event is as glitzy and gaudily as packaged for mass consumption. It’s an American fairy tale, that once-in-a-lifetime-in-a-lifetime-of-chance horse race.

In a qualitative sense, the Travers on is a much better horse race because the cream has risen to the top by then. There are the Triple Crown achievers that show up, the Haskell winner, or a late developing phenomenon such as Arrogate.

If Tesio were alive today he’d find the Derby’s timing abhorrent. For three-year-old Thoroughbreds in the spring, a savagely contested mile and a quarter on the first Saturday in May is way too much and way too soon.

But as Confucius often said: It is what it is.

Many horsemen have told me over the years that three-year-olds should wait until June to run that far, virtually the same time we ask then to win the mile and a half Belmont. As a people, patience never has been an American virtue.

The Derby gets more consideration in end-of-year balloting because voters know that a Derby victory is a horseman’s most sought after prize, an outstanding achievement for trainers, jockeys and owners alike.

Of course, not all Grade 1s are created equal. While the brainchild for a breeding industry that never takes its eye off the bottom line, grading nevertheless is the most practical way to define class. On balance, a G1 horse will beat a G3 rival most every time.

In the case of Always Dreaming, back to back winner of the 2017 Florida and Kentucky Derbies, he brought a near insurmountable divisional lead into racing’s second season but it appears that those consecutive wins emptied the tank.

Then the announcement was made that the Travers disappointment would not target the Breeders’ Cup Classic and focus on a four year old campaign instead, widely hailed as the right thing to do.

And that made sense, especially considering the $16-million Pegasus will be run over a surface and at a distance he loves; a no-brainer.

But now his return has been delayed, the target now a late spring/summer campaign which presumably targets the Met Mile then either or both of Saratoga Grade 1s, the Whitney and Woodward.

However, it also raises the question how much of the Derby-winning version Always Dreaming has left, and it’s only fair to ask.

But as far as the 2017 Eclipse title is concerned, is there really a need for discussion?

West Coast’s second season was as impressive as Always Dreaming’s first, perhaps more so since he defeated all who were title aspirants at one time or another

And he ended his season with a solid third behind his elders, protem Horse of the Year Gun Runner and the streaking, accomplished Collected. His resume clearly is the most title worthy.

Leading Juveniles Vie for Eclipse Title


Next year’s three year olds remain juveniles for another 43 days and that division also has inspired debate. In our view, this divisional puzzle is a lot more vexatious.

It’s the age old Eclipse question: Which is more righteous? The head to head match-up result or is it the body of work?

And that’s what makes Bolt d’Oro vs. Good Magic so interesting.

Good Magic won their only meeting when he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in which Bolt d’Oro was a trip-compromised, good third.

An aside: We personally do not consider trips as either a qualifier or disqualifier of championship status. As they say in court, it's “let the record show...”

The question is this: Is a placing in the G1 Champagne and Juvenile victory more or less impressive than Bolt d’Oro’s two Grade 1 scores and his Juvenile third?

Personally, we’re still mulling the question over and I won't beat myself up whatever I decide.

One of my first Eclipse litmus tests is to count Grade 1 wins and go from there. In that context, this is an open and shut case.

Which carries more prestige and value; a second in the Champagne or a win in the 7-furlong Del Mar Futurity? Sorry, we believe there’s no comparison; the former.

But ‘Bolt’ also won the G1 FrontRunner and that’s a serious victory, which made him 3-for-3 into the Juvenile. Good Magic went into the Juvenile a maiden.

So it’s two G1s and a G1 placing vs. one G1 win and placing, but the one was the big one. I’m a huge believer in the Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies should be regarded as championship defining events.

Choosing the “best horse” is often subjective in horse racing, so it matters not that I believe Good Magic will make the better three year old. But there is plenty of time for that.

It is likely that both camps will sit and await the results of the balloting but there is a clear tie-breaking opportunity next month that would still give these two plenty of time to freshen for a Derby campaign, especially if their trainers take the two-prep tack.

CashCall Futurity, anyone?

Written by John Pricci

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