Dan’s #1…Dan’s #1: And it would be unwise to think that positions on the NTRA National Poll will change until Nov. 5, a.k.a. Election Eve. Wise Dan, despite returning on unaccustomed-for-him short rest, dominated the Shadwell Turf Mile.
That’s three straight Mile wins on turf and 4-of-5 under those conditions dating back to July 4, 2011. But I agree with the Racing Post writer who recently stated Wise Dan should run in the Classic.
We believe that for two reasons: While trainer Charlie Lopresti and owner Morton Fink say publicly that a Horse of the Year title for their gelding is not all that crucial, then why--money notwithstanding--are you in the horse business?
Further, a look at his Equiform figures as he approaches Breeders’ Cup weekend, tell the same story they did before the Shadwell; Wise Dan owns better Energy Figures on both dirt and synthetic surfaces. If the Santa Anita dirt surface tightens up significantly, the connections could change their minds. That’s a big if.
SoCal, By Way of Shanghai: Kudos to the connections of protem Juvenile champion Shanghai Bobby for deciding on a go in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, after first planting seeds of doubt following his Champagne tour de force.
Whether it’s because last year’s Juvenile turned out to be a good Kentucky Derby barometer--in terms of participation in the 2012 Derby, or because they believe their colt had done enough, or feared no-show voter reprisals, or worried that a Lasix-less ‘Bobby’ would somehow be less than in the warm and sunny Arcadia environment, doesn’t matter now.
Starlight Racing is doing the game a good turn. And to be favored to earn the winner’s share of a $2 million pot ain’t so bad, either. Good for them.
Vote Your Conscience: My colleague Steve Haskin of Bloodhorse.com had it right Saturday afternoon at Belmont Park. If you want to make a statement and leave I’ll Have Another off your NTRA or Eclipse ballot for whatever reason, fine.
But if you rank him somewhere in the Top 10, how could he be anything other than the leading Horse of the Year candidate at this juncture. His 2012 slate: (4) 4-0-0, including a Grade 2, the G1 Santa Anita Derby and, of course, a Dual Classics winner. Until Nov. 3, anyway, it’s the sport’s most compelling resume.
A Mulligan For All My Friends: With apologies to Bukowski, I have awarded Breeders’ Cup do-overs to Ron The Greek, To Honor And Serve, and now Dullahan and St. Nicholas Abbey. Wherever you think they belong in racing’s pecking order is fine.
But each is better—much better—than their Jockey Club Gold Cup, Kelso, Jamaica and Arc say that they are. Not saying they will win at this juncture, only that they cannot be dismissed out of hand.
Now defending champion Amazombie has run well off poor efforts in the past, but he may be a Sprint throw-out this time. Have to think about this guy for a while; stay tuned.
Yes or No Answer, Please: Should Keeneland runner-up Exothermic, mistakenly administered Lasix on last Friday’s opening day program, have run for “purse money only?”
Absolutely. It was the right—and only fair thing---to do. This way, no one gets hurt.
Did Christophe Soumillon move too soon in the Arc? It certainly looked that way. Star Japanese filly Orfevre swept to command into the straight at Longchamp Sunday and appeared on her way to certain victory when Solemia, beneath Olivier Peslier, re-rallied and nailed Orfevre in the final strides. Taking nothing away from the victress, Orfevre ran too good to lose.
Will Todd Pletcher Be the Most Prolific Earner Ever? It certainly looks that way. Only 16 years ago, Pletcher saddled his first winner. Over the weekend, he became the second all-time leading trainer in money won, surpassing the late Hall of Famer Bobby Frankel.
What your attitude towards Pletcher, earnings of nearly a quarter-billion dollars (yes, with a b) in 16 years is an amazing achievement. Latest figures have him trailing his mentor, D. Wayne Lukas, by approximately $32 million, after saddling about half the number of runners. As of last Saturday, $228 million and climbing.
Was Groupie Doll More Dominating than Wise Dan? In her fashion, yes. Rajiv Maragh rode her with arrogant confidence, believing all he needed was running room and a dream.
Despite mid-post position, Maragh decided to save ground and entering the stretch was fortunate to find daylight between rivals. He knuckled on her and she was gone, powering away effortlessly. And like Dan, she doesn’t have to carry her surface around with her.
Name That Tune: Facing winners for the first time off a single start, Noble Tune, just as he had in his debut, was most impressive, demonstrating a turn of foot uncommon with juveniles, especially over yielding ground, a grass star in the making.
Racing sixth as the Pilgrim horses entered the far turn, Ramon Dominguez elected to shift inside toward the hedge, angled outside approaching headstretch with push button acceleration, blew the race open, and then was idled down late. Surface notwithstanding, was every bit as impressive as Shanghai Bobby.



10 Oct 2012 at 12:20 am | #
Interesting read and opinions. Only thing I would take exception with is the mulligan for To Honor and Serve. He’s won one race in his life away from NYRA tracks, an extremely weak Pa. Derby. (Beating Ruler on Ice since the 2011 Belmont is hardly a laurel). There is nothing to suggest he can beat top horses on an unfriendly surface. If he goes, he’ll be 30-1 at least and that won’t reflect his true chances.
10 Oct 2012 at 02:19 am | #
Found Keeneland more bettable this weekend despite the synthetic.
Average field size probably had something to do with it.
Here’s a comparison of the three major tracks:
Date Track Starters/Race
10/5 Bel 6.3
SA 10.0
Kee 10.8
10/6 Bel 8.4
SA 9.0
Kee 9.4
10/7 Bel 7.3
SA 8.3
Kee 10.0
Even with the large purses NY offers, far fewer runners. Why?
10 Oct 2012 at 03:23 pm | #
While Pletcher is undeniably an elite trainer, I’m not sure the rankings, based on earnings, are a fair assessment of a trainer’s “all-time” status (to the extent that ranking trainers is even a useful exercise). The earning barometer needs to be weighted--scaled to each era’s available purse money, otherwise the list is even more meaningless!
eric s.
10 Oct 2012 at 05:27 pm | #
Good stuff gents, thanks.
TVTOM, agreed re THAS overall record and, yes, he will be up against it in the West. All I’m saying is that he will perform better and can makehis presence felt, but a very unlikely winner.
Denny, like Saratoga, everyone wants to win at KEE, especially the players given big fields and, on balance, the best takeout rates in the country.
Eric, totally agree re money, but of Top 10 earners of all-time, eight are in the Hall of Fame. Pletcher will get there, as Asmussen likely is, too. I know both are controversial but then so are/were many Hall of Famers. Sadly, the nature of our game.
10 Oct 2012 at 07:22 pm | #
Pletcher is a great trainer and belongs in the Hall of Fame, no matter how big the purses are now compared to the past. The bigger issue is, trainers being credited for wins at tracks all over the country, thousands of miles from their base. As best I know Bobby Frankel raced on one circuit: New York early, California for the balance of his career. For purposes of records, a trainer should get credit only for wins on his home circuit and by horses shipping out of there for out-of-town stakes.
10 Oct 2012 at 09:49 pm | #
Opinions ... every horseplaya has one!
Been following horseracing since the early 70s. Off the top of my head and in no particular order, my top 25 U.S. trainer list:
Mack Miller
Allen Jerkens
Woody Stephens
Ron McAnally
Shug McGaughey
Charlie Whittingham
Bobby Frankel
Wayne Lukas/Jeff Lukas
Jonathan Shepherd
Richard Mandella
William Mott
Carl Nafzger
Kiaran McLaughlin
Jack Van Berg
Buddy Delp
Laz Barerra
King Leatherbury
Nick Zito
Mike Mitchell
Jamie Ness
Chad Brown
Dale Romans
Bob Baffert
Todd Pletcher
Steve Asmussen
Pletcher and Asmussen show big money earnings that started with team Lukas. It’s hard to compare today with the past because of increased purses, stable sizes and advances in shipping.
Who did I miss???
10 Oct 2012 at 10:03 pm | #
If you’re going to include Jamie Ness, you can’t leave out Oscar Barrera, Richard Dutrow, Mark Shuman and anyone who trains for Frank Calabrese.
10 Oct 2012 at 11:09 pm | #
TVTOM, you must have a lot of time on your hands these days.
I hear you, but it is a different world. Then, by your definition, what do we do with shippers from the home base? At the end of his career, Frankel often had two divisions, SoCal and NY, and maybe KY a time or two.
Cat, good grist for the mill. Think I’ll take a shot at this sometime; thanks!
11 Oct 2012 at 01:52 am | #
JP,
Hope you don’t mind a shout-out to Top Turf Teddy - wherever you are.
Used his numerical ratings for a couple of profitable days of Keeneland play.
Some of his well rated contenders were simply AMAZING.
Thanks TTT
Kudos also to you JP for your free Feature Race Analysis this past Sunday.
Thanks JP
21 Oct 2012 at 03:36 pm | #
Liars Figure and Figures Lie.... How you are quantifying “best”?