In the years since, the number of Breeders’ Cup races have doubled and then some. Fortunately, though, the number of major categories haven’t changed all that much. However, two were added, both for females, one for fast fillies; the other for grass lovers.
On Formerly Filly Friday, three likely champions were crowned and, strangely enough, all were females.
With her front-running victory in the Juvenile Fillies, Beholder, trained by Richard Mandella and ridden by Garrett Gomez, took advantage of a speed-biased racetrack and improved her record to 3-for-5.
The Juvenile Fillies was her first and only Grade 1 but, given her nose defeat in the G1 Del Mar Debutante, her resume is championship enough.
In a division that was very entertaining but without a dominant filly all season, Zagora, adding the Filly and Mare Turf to her resume, improved her record to 5-for-8, good enough for a title even if the F&M Turf was her first G1 of the season.
Zagora was, however, G1 placed in both the Flower Bowl and Diana and won four other graded stakes; three at the G3 level and Saratoga’s G2 Ballston Spa.
For Royal Delta, the repeat winner of the Ladies Classic, not only is a cinch to reprise her Filly & Mare Eclipse title but the victory put her, for the time being at least, in the running for a possible Horse of the Year championship depending on Saturday’s results.
And that's when the scores began to change.
Eclipse Championship Saturday began in earnest with Santa Anita’s fifth race, the Filly & Mare Sprint and, ironically, if this division had not been created, the amazing Groupie Doll likely would have won the open title.
Never out of the money in eight starts, the Filly & Mare Sprint was her fifth consecutive score, adding a third G1 to her G2 victories.
And she did it by tearing the bias to shreds, confidently and patiently handled by Rajiv Maragh, as he looped the speedsters on the way to a dominant victory.
After the filly Mizdirection won the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint off the longest layoff in the history of the event for King of the Jungle Jim Rome et al, Shanghai Bobby not only nailed down a championship but did so with perhaps the gamest performance in the history of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
He did it chasing suicidal fractions from close range after having his training schedule interrupted by Hurricane Sandy, did it on a hot day 3,000 miles from home and—oh, yes—overcame it all without the benefit of Lasix, just as Beholder had on Friday.
In winning the race, Shanghai Bobby extended his undefeated record to five, adding the Juvenile to the Champagne his second G1 title.
An hour later, the three-year-old Trinniberg, extended his record to 4-for-8 for the year by taking the championship-defining Sprint. Will voters consider that enough? Since filly sprinters have their own category, what happens here?
The result of the Breeders’ Cup Turf turned out to be amazingly complex result. Point Of Entry, on the cusp of a possible Horse of the Year championship, now might finish third—in his own division.
How do you deny the winner, Little Mike, who won his third G1 of the year including the Turf and Arlington Million, two of the most prestigious, if not the most prestigious grass races in the country?
Then along comes Wise Dan--who most believe is the best older horse in the country--to win his third consecutive G1 in a specialized category (in this country, anyway) a turf miler. The bigger deal is that he did it while the whole world was watching.
Coupled with his narrow defeat in the G1 Stephen Foster, and Game On Dude’s no-show performance in the Classic, his credentials make him a leader in the Horse of the Year clubhouse.
Expect controversy.
Will voters punish him for not going for the whole enchilada by running in the Classic, a race which is, on balance, far more valuable to a potential Horse of the Year titlist than any number of one mile victories on grass?
Wise Dan is the Horse of the Year favorite, no doubt, odds-on to be ranked first in the final NTRA Poll on, coincidentally, election day. He was his usually uber impressive self.
But having made his bones in three Grade 1 turf miles, is that greater than Little Mike's three G1s--at a mile and an eighth, a mile and a quarter, and a mile and a half, two of those against international competition?
Of course, Fort Larned, expertly prepared, won the big dance, the Classic, riding a bias that wouldn't allow Mucho Macho Man to catch up. Is the Classic and the Whitney a good enough Horse of the Year resume?
Now consider this: Is any of the above greater than a 4-for-4 American dirt season that includes three Grade 1s, a Grade 2, and two classics?
It is a question that will be argued ad infinitum until all the votes are counted at year’s end. It might even turn out to be closer than the result of Tuesday’s other election.


04 Nov 2012 at 01:32 pm | #
Fort Who?
04 Nov 2012 at 02:20 pm | #
It was pretty clear there was a rail/speed bias Friday, but believing it was the same Saturday is a stretch.
1) 2 of Saturday’s dirt winners rallied wide from the back half of the pack (Politicallycorrect & Groupie Doll)
2) a third Saturday dirt winner was on the pace but very wide most of the way (Tapizar). That’s 3 of 7 Saturday dirt winners that raced wide.
3) MMM had a similar trip to the quarter pole as Shanghai Bobby - pressing the pacesetter and outside him. SB won because he was the best horse. MMM couldn’t get by, more likely because the Classic pace wasn’t fast than because of a Saturday bias.
4) Bottom line? Speed/inside Friday; Speed-favoring but not biased Saturday, with outside paths fair.
Near the end of the NBC Sports Network broadcast Randy Moss and Jerry Bailey both pronounced Saturday’s track fair.
04 Nov 2012 at 06:10 pm | #
Look T, I didn’t think Fort Larned was a true 10F horse either.
C’mon Nick, how much money did you want on The Lumber Guy and MMM from their position at headstretch? At that point I would gladly have doubled my bet at half the odds and thought I was stealing money.
I referred to a speed bias in the stretch, not a rail bias per se although it certainly didn’t hurt Shanghai Bobby, and I’m not taking anything away: Did call it maybe the gamest performance in the history of the Juvenile.
Now I know, and respect, the job you do with your bias reports but if you look at the trips of just those two horses in particular and didn’t think both would win at the 1/4-pole then you probably a litle work on your trip handicapping skills. Sorry, but I feel very strongly about the SA surface carrying horses through the stretch.
I gave Groupie Doll her props but she was 3-5 and was a layover on anybody’s speed figures.I didn’t see a true closer win all weekend.
I have gone on record that Bailey was the smartest, best position rider I have seen and have called Randy racing’s best TV analyst, long before he got that recognition. But in this instance I disagree. The SA surface, while kinder and sandier than versions past one that gave Eastern horses a chance was anything but free of bias--both days.
04 Nov 2012 at 06:16 pm | #
P.S. Nick.
Who’s your Horse of the Year?
I don’t even know for sure who the rightful Turf champion is. Don’t believe I’ve seen anything like this.
You know I asked Mr. Lopresti on an NTRA conference call about running in the Classic in relation to Horse of the Year. He said that his horse is a gelding so it didn’t matter all that much to he and Mr. Fink. I don’t expect that same tune to be played again--starting today.
04 Nov 2012 at 07:30 pm | #
If I were Dinny or Shug, I’d be just a little peeved at the ride Johnny V. gave Point Of Entry. Saving ground is one thing, but please, did he need to be that far back? AS JP said, may have cost the Phipps’ a Turf Champion and even Horse Of The Year.
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My HOY is I’ll Have Another.
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Animal Kingdom was spectacular. Beharano awful.
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Trinniberg was bred by tiny J M Stables, Ulster County town of Saugerties, New York. People were rooting and cheering in the Kingston OTB.
Might make a nice story for HRI.
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Fort Larned was an overlay. Just like he was at Saratoga. Gets no respect. Had him both times.
He did win at 9 1/2 furlongs, you know?
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Good to see a BC not dominated by big name trainers Baffert and Pletcher. Also good to see some lesser known jockeys get into the winners circle.
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It was an awfully long day. Do we really need that much time between races?
04 Nov 2012 at 07:54 pm | #
JP--
Don’t know whether there was a speed bias or not at Santa Anita. If you are right, then I would agree that Fort Larned and Triniberg were assisted by the bias--as was Shanghai Bobby.
It is difficult to deny what the naked eyes saw in the gameness of Shanghai Bobby’s performance, but if indeed the speed bias was as pronounced as you felt, it would be difficult to record it as the guttiest of all Breeder’s Cup Juvenile races, and yet deny Trinnberg and Fort Larned their props for front running scores that were not as close as the Juvenile because they kept running fast fractions while Shanghai Bobby clearly did not .
Nick--Let me use this column to thank you and Tom for many years of enjoyment on Trackfacts Live. It will be a long winter without your entertaining and uniquely interactive show!
04 Nov 2012 at 08:36 pm | #
Nick,
I happen to know Chuck from the harness track a good and smart man, and when he told me what might be happening, I couldn’t believe it. Yey another myopic decision from racing regulators, in this case Capital OTB--and not because I’d like to think I played a very small role in making “Trackfacts Live” a success, stressing call-ins on a Sunday morning. I sincerely hope Chuck’s information is incorrect but, knowing him I doubt it. Still getting tied on here and will contact you and Tom.
Chuck I understand your point, and you are right, but stalking and sprinting and stalking and routing, especially on that pace, are different animals. And, again, not day, interrupted training and Lasix off.
Denny, agree with virtually everything but...9-1/2 is not 10 furlongs; 9-1/2 plays like 9, 10 demands stamina. No respect for FL; it’s true. Fort Larned helped make my Saratoga--I just needed MMM to catch him. Still, I tip my cap; great job horse, rider and trainer.
Will touch on all the storylines I can think of in a few days.
Disagree about the time between races. Yes, it is long but I think necessarily. There are wagering, handicapping, and broadcast issues that require time. Not everyone has time to handicap in advance. In fact, I know enough people that wait until scratches and track conditions are known before they get down to business--not to mention some who like to get a look at the odds board first.
Perhaps someday, I’ll stop at that farm in Saugerties. Think I’ll wait for the weather to warm up again first.
Good stuff all thanks!
jp
04 Nov 2012 at 08:44 pm | #
P.S. Denny,
What we don’t need is the Juvenile Sprint and, to a far lesser extent, the Marathon, although long- distance racing is very popular with many fans and the race gets plenty of international support.
But let’s face it; it’s doubtful it will ever become a serious Grade 1-quality event.
04 Nov 2012 at 09:25 pm | #
Nick baby, if I had to rely on analyzing the track bias/speed favoring nature of the track, I’d give up this game......
JP, nothing againt Fort Larned, or anybody who had him; it’s definitely “sour grapes” here for me; I wasn’t that smart.
Had Trinniberg, which made my day, and will argue vehemently with anyone who would opine that the track bias/speed favoring nature of the track was the reason for his win. He is one fast mother trucker.
TTT
Speed Nit Wit (as Nick would say)
04 Nov 2012 at 11:18 pm | #
Gents,
The only bias I could see was the JCGC influence on the classic with 3 of 4 survivors completing the Classic super.
The DRF stat portion shows Fort Larned won at the distance. FL looked very good in the post parade as did Nonios. THAS did not look like a happy camper and ran like it.
I now believe MMM suffers from a stretch bias, i.e., he won’t pass another horse who isn’t tiring or quitting.
FL reversed all his losses to Flat Out, Ron The Greek, and Successful Dan and competed across the country—South to North, East to West. He is my HOY since Wise Dan—who may be the best horse— did not pick up the gauntlet, but rather picked on a weak division.
The BC should have paid for mandatory scoping of all 2YOs after their races in the interest of transparency, truth, and trust.
TTT,
Had the lumbering if not slumbering Lumber Guy won, I’d have had one helluvaa day. Since I didn’t have Trinniberg, I’m gled you did.
05 Nov 2012 at 02:18 am | #
Great BC from the standpoint of diversity. A lot of different winners from trainers, owners & jockeys. Should “the horse” WD be punished for the decision of his connections.I don’t think so. If he had run in the Classic he would have been 2nd choice at worst.& I believe he would have won. He’s traveled to different tracks, beaten the international horses, & won on all surfaces at the highest levels. His win yesterday was as decisive as can be. Although the 3yo’s lost most of the players, the year ended on a high note with some really good horses producing significant performances on the biggest stage in the country.
05 Nov 2012 at 03:17 am | #
lm, #11,
Since the award is only meaningful to the horse’s connections, WD’s will have to accept responsibility for their decisions.
He soundly beat several of last year’s BC Classic survivors trying to salvage their season in the Clark, but it was his troubled second to Ron the Greek that really made him a HOY contender. Would have been harder to deny him had he won that day, and ompossible if he’d won the JCGC prior to winning the mile.
Interestingly, The last 3 BC Clessic winners have run in, but not won the JCGC.
Also, I doubt WD would have beaten AK if Johnny V had stayed with the latter. Every other entrant was second-tier including Wilcox Inn who had finished 2nd to WD in the Shadwell. Who was the top international competition he faced in the Woodbine Mile?
Little Mike’s turf record seems more HOY-worthy than WD’s.
05 Nov 2012 at 01:31 pm | #
I am certainly in agreement with those who believe that the track favored speed on Saturday. However, I also believe that the creme dela creme are less likely to stop. My only point was that, from a handicapping standpoint, if my wagering decision is influenced by the condition of the racetrack, I most definitely should not be betting the race. For those who are able to accurately decipher the condition of the track, which is in constant flux on most days, my hat is off to you. For me, it is a non starter. Have always believed that other factors may give the illusion that a track is speed favoring, or closer friendly. My solution to the problem; bet fast horses that finish first.
TTT
The Driveler
05 Nov 2012 at 01:47 pm | #
An addendum to No. 13 above. I’ve theorized in this forum that the most formful results come on a bone-dry track, for so many reasons. I also prefer bone-dry humor, and white wine. However, prefer my women wet and wild. Getting back to the track surface and analysis of same, seems to me, by the time you can make a determination with respect to the condition of the track, the fans are heading for the exits with their pockets empty, and the information is only good for future speculation. Hello.....? That is why I rely mainly on tide and astrological charts for my handicapping. Urging everyone to bet winners. I love this game.
TTT
05 Nov 2012 at 02:04 pm | #
JRP,
If the speed bias was that strong Saturday, how did Politicallycorrect win conclusively in race 3? The favorite in that race was on the pace and gave it up. Favorites aren’t suppose to stop when they’re racing with a bias.
Politicallycorrect was 7 lengths off the lead after 4 furlongs of the 7 furlong race and rallied 3-wide, going away. He had the fractions in his favor, but bias is supposed to mitigate pace, right?
When 2 of 7 races are won by horses with a running style diametrically opposite to the supposed bias, is there really a bias?
Like I said, Friday’s bias seemed pretty clear. Saturday, speed-favoring but a much less strong situation.
I believe it was Jim Quinn who wrote a true bias exists when illogical horses are winning. The only illogical dirt winner Saturday or Friday was the Lukas maiden in Friday’s sprint.
Trinniberg was considered as a potential sprint champion much of the year. Tapizar was training like a monster, loves short routes at Santa Anita, and benefited from Shackleford’s bad break.
The Classic pace was moderate, certainly no faster than honest, a perfect scenario for a two-speed number. Ian Wilkes is a disciple of Carl Nafzger, who is renowned for having his good horses peak on the appointed day.
Barring some unforeseen performance before the end of the year, my HOY is Wise Dan. It’s a no-brainer.
FYI: Thanks for the other comments. Capital wanted to transform the show from an hour live into 30 minutes taped, ala the original program. We had no problem with that, but couldn’t agree on fair compensation. It was a great 20 years but it was a pleasure Sunday to enjoy a leisurely day - brunch, Argo, etc.
05 Nov 2012 at 05:19 pm | #
NK, I bet on Politicallycorrect--missed the exacta-which owned a performance-figure edge, and said to my partner at the time “thank God for the pace meltdown.”
And, so, a hour-hour live call-in show to 30-minutes taped? Money aside--which isn’t much, I know from my experiences--that would have been enough to quit on principle. Your show was about giving the fans a voice. Apparently management didn’t think that was a worthy reason.
Typical, really, my Sunday mornings will be a little less fun, but a little less angst, too, if you catch my meaning.
I need to go see Argo; heard nothing but good things!
06 Nov 2012 at 12:14 pm | #
The Plod Boys from Racing Flow calculated a -65 for Saturday dirt at Santa Anita, speed-favoring but not biased.
06 Nov 2012 at 08:56 pm | #
We’re probably gilding this lily but that’s what makes horse racing, yes?