And that ship might have sailed when Oxbow went to the sidelines and Will Take Charge will take lots more money now that his profile has been raised several notches.
This was a weekend when even the highest of high-profile trainers served up longshots; Todd Pletcher in Saratoga’s King’s Bishop and Bob Baffert in the Pat O’Brien at Del Mar. I caught neither, having exacta-boxed the four survivors from the Amsterdam and only watched Goldenscents complete the Pat O'Brien exacta with hands that never reached into my pocket.
Perhaps what we need here at HRI is a wagering clinic where hapless handicappers like me can get some diagnostic assistance in turning red ink into black before our fingers turn blue from pinching dimes. Indeed, opening my wallet for week-end wagers looks more like a moth–release program given my recent inability to isolate singles at the top of my superfecta tickets.
Even when my analysis is reasonably accurate, financial reward is too frequently interrupted in vertical exotic pools when the right horses finish in the wrong order. Sunday’s Pacific Classic was a perfect example.
I figured that the draught might end because Game On Dude appeared a most logical winner since his previous conqueror made several disappointing efforts since their last meeting. But a Single-All-All-All superfecta would have involved 990 combinations which was unlikely to produce a profit, especially when the single is the favorite. Some trimming in the middle two slots seemed appropriate.
The battle for place appeared to be between dead-fit Hollywood Gold Cup Runner-up, Kettle Corn, and a resurgent two-time Pacific Classic winning Richard’s Kid. Even though I had my doubts, Dullahan, the 2012 winner, was impossible to ignore. It was reasonable to assume that one of my choices would finish second; probably third, as well.
Parenthetically, I always use All in the 4th slot, efforting to give myself at least as many chances to get third or second money. So I added Holding Glory, a 10-furlong graded stakes winner in Brazil, to the 3rd slot. He rated to improve off his fast-closing 2nd at one mile over the track. That play took 98 combinations, compared with 270 if I used All for third.
The bottom three superfecta finishes were decided by noses. If the 3rd and 4th placings had been reversed, I would have cashed. A 40-1 shot, You Know I Know, finished 3rd behind more highly regarded stablemate Kettle Corn. Both had outfinished Richard’s Kid, resulting in a Dime Super worth $226.04. The odds were 6-5, 6-1, 40-1 and 14-1, respectively.
Ironically, You Know I Know also happened to be an optional-claiming miler who narrowly defeated a freshened Holding Glory. The racing gods insured that my 33-1 longshot would finish a troubled fifth beneath Sutherland-Kruse, a head behind Richard’s Kid.
I know, I know: If I liked Holding Glory I should have liked You Know I Know, too. It would have taken only nine more combinations to get it right. All I can say is that I’m more inclined to spend a little more when my top selection isn’t the favorite.
(Maybe I would buy 10% more combinations if I were subsidized with the 10% rebate that goes to racing’s 1 percent, even though we bet into the same pools).
Jay Hovdey’s entertaining recap at http://www.drf.com/news/jay-hovdey-how-about-pacific-classic-blanket-finish was more forgiving of Chantal’s ride than either the DRF charts or replays indicate. See for yourself. I’ll be revisiting my own drawing board.
30 Aug 2013 at 07:46 am | #
Fear-based decisions made by jockeys and pari-mutuel investment analysts most often end without obtaining the desired goal. Both need to Forego their persona and take on a sociopathic demeanor and, “let the chips fall where they may,” one of my favorite hackneyed phrases.
Have no knowledge of why Ms. Sutherland-Kruse retired, but I do know that it takes a humongous pair to ride one of these animals; making split second decisions, going through holes with a couple of inches on either side with little ugly men all around screaming while brandishing sticks bigger than they are in a menacing fashion. Not my idea of an environment for a nice girl like her. One thing I do know is that she has paid her dues in this game, learned her craft, and vastly improved since she started riding, and I have the utmost respect for her. Go for the gusto Chantal. Oh, and I cried when you got married.
TTT
30 Aug 2013 at 08:00 am | #
Considering Ramon Dominguez’s ill-fated accident, and watching Jose Espinoza break his nose; Rosario break his foot; Lezcano his wrist, with exercise rider Raymond Bulgado in critical condition at Albany Med from a training accident--all at the 2013 Saratoga meet--only gives me more admiration for, and appreciation of, the world’s best athletes, many of whom make their jobs appear to be all too easy.
30 Aug 2013 at 08:19 am | #
Eloquently stated, Truly The Teddster.
I doubt it was fear that drove the dues-paid, drama(if not danger)-deprived daughter of Mrs. Sutherland to her payoff-denied destiny.
In my case, the fear is that I will have nothing to bet but fear itself when my Fiscal yEAR concludes with the Cigar, Clark, and now Hawthorne Gold Cup.
30 Aug 2013 at 08:28 am | #
There are many great handicappers out there who are scared, and what you ask are they scared of? They are scared of a horse they “make” who shows up on the board at say 20 to 1, who, when they analyzed the race, looked slightly inferior to the even money shot. They allow the crowds inability to perceive of the horse’s potential to sway them, and they go in another direction or vastly cut down their wager thinking they must be wrong. What a game, heh? Walk slowly (but boldly) to the window so as not to draw attention to your good fortune, and send it in like the horse was 5/2 in your former life. Thus ends the lesson.
TTT
30 Aug 2013 at 09:01 am | #
TTT,
Both You know I know (40-1) and Blueskiesandrainbows (80-1) were horses I considered including, but those odds were for win. Sometimes truer odds for lower vertical slots can be calculated from exacta will-pays. Certainly a difference in their ranking would be telling.
I wish both were available, not only on the toteboard, but also in an app that would display other derivative information like odds rank discrepancies, trifecta will-pays with the favorite on top, win odds movement tracking, etc.
30 Aug 2013 at 09:22 am | #
I, guys have paid plenty to write the code for what you’re asking the industry to provide.
Hell, they still can’t time races and apparently don’t care, either. (No comment from Del Mar about disputed Game On Dude running time)??
T, yes, there’s that horse that ran last week named Betbigorgohome. There’s a lot to that.
But herein lies the rub, as The Bard might say: There’s the often-times glaring, yet subtle, difference between value and dead on the board. Sometimes “they” know; sometimes “they” don’t.
What a game, indeed.
30 Aug 2013 at 10:13 am | #
This year’s Travers showed how their can be huge differences in ML odds, win odds and exacta odds.
Will Take Charge (10-1 ML) 9.60-1
Moreno (12-1 ML) 31.00-1
The Exacta combining these two “ought” to pay more than $500 by most calculations.
The actual payoff was $313.
30 Aug 2013 at 11:43 am | #
I aye I,
Good story, the best horseplayer stories unfortunately are the ones that don’t pay out.
It seems we live in an exotic wagering world today whether it’s horizontal or vertical. Now I know the dime super is a low investment, high reward bet, but at 23% takeout or higher, is it a smart bet? 10% rebate or no rebate, we have to take in account the takeout first, no?
If to you Game On Dude was the most logical winner and you were strongly against Dullahan then why not just take the 8/5 for a win bet? Move on, take what you get philosophy where the takeout is more reasonable. In fact earlier that Sunday you could have taken Royal Delta to win and made a parlay to the Dude. You also could have called me up and taken the Phipps horse Imagining who loves the firm turf. All three won for fun and the parlay for a two hundred dime investment would have gotten you almost 2000 dimes.
All I’m saying is that we sometimes have to go back to basics. WPS at 15% take or lower is still the best bet in the long run, IMHO. We all would like to make a big score which might get us even for life. I’m my worst enemy sometimes too. On Travers Day I didn’t cash all day from betting exotics where I had many of the winners on top. Then Sunday I went back to basics and got my money back. Then came yesterday at Toga and the double carryover, had the first four right, but the last two were second, ugh…
BTW, no such thing as a bad day on a beach blanket. Or a day at Delmar…
I wish they all could be California
I wish they all could be California
I wish they all could be California.... girls…
30 Aug 2013 at 12:36 pm | #
Cat,
I wish they all could have been California cougars! LOL
When I started playing regularly again after I retired, I could no longer isolate logical horses on-paper at 5-1 or better.
Straight betting keeps my low bankroll indicator on. Plus there’s little pleasure in just grinding it out. Until lately, I’ve not had as many near misses.
I seem to do better with dime supers than dollar tris, but I think I would do best with fifty cent tris. Most of my cumulative payoffs come from exactas, which I attribute to being more controlled about pulling the trigger until there’s a longshot I really like. I have to like two non-favorites in the tri.
Most of my action is on dime supers when I play an entire card. “Bet a little to win lot” seems to work best for me—when it works!
30 Aug 2013 at 04:31 pm | #
Elton John wishes they all could be California...Dudes! Bob Baffert too! LOL
10 Sep 2013 at 10:38 am | #
I’ve been giving this some thought and agree many of us could use some help with wagering strategy.
I think we all need to take a stand somewhere.
In the case of the superfecta, that stand is to eliminate some runners completely, and not use all in the fourth position. Using all is like saying “I have no idea who can finish fourth, so I’ll just use everyone”. This is hoping and praying, not handicapping.
Even if it’s eliminating only one or two horses, it would allow one, two, or more bottom contenders to be moved up to the third slot.
10 Sep 2013 at 11:02 pm | #
DM,
I appreciate the input.
I’m not saying you’re wrong, but always using ALL in the bottom slot has paid off for me countless times. If I really like a non-favorite, and I think the favorite could finish out of the super, I’ll use ALL in the third slot as well. Hit a nice one that way, but very few such opportunities present themselves.