The system has outlived its utility and no longer makes sense. Twenty Derby starters is the modern rule, not the exception. And it matters not whether that this year’s draw involving the filly Eight Belles went smoothly. Using any criteria, she earned her way in.
Admission based on earnings is fraught with inequities to the existing prep process too numerous to mention, and in the future it’s bound to get worse because any track could artificially inflate the importance of its prep race by throwing money at it. That might be good for business but it’s bad for the Derby.
Racing is what it is; a game built on opinion backed by dollars. Having a lot of either doesn’t guarantee a quality product. All reasonable people acknowledge the Derby as “America’s Race.” As such it should feature the best three-year-olds based on one criterion; performance.
There are only two ways to look at a horse race; before and after the fact. Post race, any argument can be made with certitude but still might not provide the best course for the future. Like the opinion that says the graded-earnings system works. With Eight Belles getting a fortuitous Derby post position Wednesday, a potentially ugly sidebar was avoided.
With two days until this country’s most celebrated race, a challenge: To make a serious case for Z Humor’s participation other than his dead-heat victory in a racino-fueled million-dollar race for two-year-olds at Delta Downs.
As John McEnroe might say to any Handicapping 101 graduate; you can’t be serious!
This thesis is late in coming while waiting to gauge the latest fan, media, and industry reaction to the 2008 pre-race draw scenario. Two ideas, one from a fan, the other from a well respected journalist, not only was the most practical but had added benefits. To wit:
Create heightened interest and anticipation during the prep run-up period; boost the bottom line at racetracks already hosting widely recognized preps, and to help horsemen make the best decisions by knowing exactly what is to be gained from successful participation in any particular event.
While the establishment of two-year-old form is important for aspiring classicists from a developmental perspective, both physically and mentally, it’s meaningless if the individual fails to make the often difficult transition from two to three. Juvenile form is just that, juvenile form.
Precocity is an unreliable predictor of classics form. The fact that Street Sense is the only individual to make a successful leap from Juvenile to Derby winner is not coincidental. Derby talk should start January 1, not on the last Saturday of October.
There are twenty spots in the gate and, fortuitously, 20 established Derby prep races. A regional breakdown of traditionally accepted preps, graded or otherwise:
The Sam F. Davis and Tampa Bay Derby; the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby; the Lane’s End; the Gotham and Wood Memorial, the Illinois Derby; the Fountain of Youth, Florida Derby and Holy Bull; the San Felipe, Robert Lewis Memorial, Sham and Santa Anita Derby, the Southwest, Rebel and Arkansas Derby; the Blue Grass and Coolmore Lexington.
By region, this covers the West Coast of Florida (2), South Florida (3), Louisiana (2), New York (2), Illinois (1), Southern California (4), Arkansas (3) and Kentucky (3).
The ultimate goal is to have your horse peak in bluegrass country on the first Saturday of May. Instead of “win and you’re in,” points earned from in-the-money finishes in 20 modern and traditionally accepted preps, and you’re in.
In this manner, three-year-old form and the ability to handle two turns at meaningful distances is the best measure of worthiness. By assigning points to place and show finishers, it allows horseman an additional safety valve, able to gain experience and/or conditioning while not leaving your Derby race at the finish line of the final prep.
A too-late, fast-finish second or third in the Wood, Blue Grass or Santa Anita Derby-- often a predictor of winning Derby form--sometimes is the best way to arrive in Louisville near tops. A graduating point scale of 3-2-1 for the first three finishers in a Grade 3, a 6-4-2 scale at the Grade 2 level, and 9-6-3 score for Grade 1 money finishes seems a fair weight-to-grade ratio.
Among these 20 races, only the Sam F Davis is ungraded and easily remedied. If there remains insistence to include juvenile form, the only races included should be the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Remsen, Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and Cash Call Futurity. Two Grade 2s, two Grade 1s, all around two turns.
Twenty preps for 20 stalls. What could be more impartial, obliging, or easier to understand?


01 May 2008 at 10:57 am | #
I agree that the system should assure that horses with the best current form are rewarded. I also agree that making a case for Z Humor (or Anak Nakal) requires a leap of faith. On the other hand, were those two to have vacated their spots in favor of Halo Najib and and Indan Sun would the Derby be better for it?
While I agree in principle every year that a re-vamp is in order (and should start with also eligibles) it seems that every year, the horses that belong, get in. After all, as Ogden Phipps once once said about earnings in the racing business “It’s how we keep score.” For the most part, the best horses have the most money.
The potential upside is that with the rising threshold for earnings we may actually see some of these potential Derby colts race a few more times. One of the horses I think should have made it to the Derby was Atoned. His Tampa Bay Derby was a nice effort first back and they probably figured that the big purse in Illinois was theirs if they could beat Denis of Cork, and if not, second money was $100k. Well he was disadvantaged by the track and rushed back in the Lexington. Honestly, had he won the Lexington were they going to run him a 3rd time in 4 weeks in KY anyhow??? Had they prepared for at least one clunker (I know no one expects the bad races but you know that they could happen) and maybe started in the Swale or Hutcheson he’s have gotten extra graded earnings before some of the others got started. I am not saying that Atoned would have been the Derby winner, or even that he “should” be in but I think that starting in mid March, with a 2 prep schedule you allow no wiggle room. Atoned isn’t running on Saturday because he didn’t earn his way. I would contend that he wasn’t given the chance to.
01 May 2008 at 11:03 am | #
Please shut up. If we were to involve any other form of human involvement in this process there would be bias. Without a doubt, bias would play a hand, however suttle. This is the first year there has been a large level of uproar. If the horse was good enough it should’ve gotten the earnings- to have run more, or won more. If not, they don’t derserve to be in anyways. I admit a majority of the horses in the field are crap, but they earned their spot the same as the others - they can’t help that they’re a weak crop.
Leave it how it is.
Leave the Derby how it is, tradition.
Leave the Derby, Preakness and Belmont on dirt.
Do not change them to polytrack.
The best of the best have raced at Churchill and earned their way the same way for atleast 50 years.
Just leave it alone.
It’s fine.
01 May 2008 at 11:31 am | #
John
I’m in total agreement, up and down the line. I was wavering a little about including the late 2yo races, but that grouping has an excellent symmetry, with the BC Juvenile a no-brainer and equal representation from the three major racing regions. Those four races are the ones that have been the harbingers of 3-year-old form of late. Those summer graded races at sprint distances just don’t have the staying power anymore. Sad to say, but our beloved Hopeful shows just three classic winners in the last 30 runnings; there were three classic winners (and two Triple Crown winners!) in the six runnings before that. What does that tell you about how the game has changed?
These funny-money preps make the earnings-based eligibility rules laughable. Granted, there were few if any worthy Derby candidates who were excluded this year, but the structure as it stands could easily allow for a worthy candidate to get displaced. Perhaps, as some have suggested, there should be a Breeders’ Cup-like selection committee to determine, say, five spots in addition to the points qualifiers.
BTW, with the way horsemen are flocking to Tampa to leg up their horses for the classics, the Sam Davis soon will be graded, probably by 2009.
R ‘n R Dr.
01 May 2008 at 11:40 am | #
Yes I think the rules should be change and agree with most of your statement until the January 1st comment. Although it rarely happens in in this country in Europe/the rest of the world, it is not usual for a horse to train up to a classic race and not start. Not a good or proven route to the KY. Derby, but I would hate to lose a chance to see a superstar 2yr old sometime in the future not be allowed in the Derby-for that matter a European wonderhorse.
I have condemned Lukas (and others) a number of years for throwing horses to the wolves just to keep his consecutive starter record in tact-see Consolidator. (I am pretty sure that was the nice horse that was basically ruined chasing the Derby and Preakness)A horse getting beat double digit plus going into the race, do they think its going to came in the toughest race in the world? Don’t they realize a properly manged decent 3 yr old can make a million taking down Iowa, Virginia, the Super Derby and a lot of races like them that come up light while the good ones go for the glory in the Haskill and Travers.
I am not an novice as a former OJC clocker and back-up odds maker at the then Ontario circuit (now it is just Woodbine) and still love the game and race horses. Nothing to me is sadder than seeing a hard trying horse having its spirit broken by a trainer/owner insisting on running a horse over its head. Having a horse in the Derby must be a thrill, but having one run without a chance is stupid and cruel. In human terms I never will beat Carl Lewis in a foot race and don’t need to pay for travel, entry fees, great training effort, and possible injury to prove it, just because I won high school track meets and was a little better than average.
01 May 2008 at 11:52 am | #
Earnings are useless in distinguishing the very best.
How about a weighted point system that gives more points to a Grade 1 win than a Grade 3, more points to an allowance win than a maiden win, more points to winning over 10 other horses than beating 4 or less, and only considering 3 year old performance, OR races of 1 1/8 miles or longer, like the Remsen Stakes at 2 [I’d like to see the Breeders Cup Juvenile permanently extended to 1 1/8 miles].
This eliminates the absurdity of a huge bankroll earned by a capable sprinter with 2 year old earnings getting an automatic Derby entry. This eliminates a one-time winning performance in January getting an automatic entry.
This also encourages more starts for three year olds--this isn’t trivial, because 20 horse fields full of green horses who haven’t raced enough to know their business are an invitation to disaster. So far, we’ve been fortunate that there have been no horses down, but I think that that is pure luck.
The Derby has degenerated into the spectacle of the unproven and unready with a small admixture of quality proven after the fact. I’ve been watching Derbies now for nearly 5 decades, and the fields now contain about half of entries that make me shake my head and wonder WHY?
Another device to draw off horses that really, really do not belong is to stage another race, the same day, with an enormous purse, at one mile. Call it the Kentucky Golden Mile. People with some sense still remaining could look at their nice horses who really do not want 1 1/4 miles and could put them in this race instead where they could win some glory and cash rather than get beat up and distanced in the Derby.
01 May 2008 at 01:23 pm | #
Just give an automatic entry to the top 3 finishers in the 5 Major derby preps: Florida, Santa Anita, Wood Memorial, Arkansas, and Blue Grass Stakes. That takes care of 15 spots...the other 5 can get in based on overall graded earnings.
Those are the horses that deserve to get in, and you wouldn’t have to worry about a Bob Black Jack being on the bubble.
Plus a horse with alot of earnings already, like a Pyro, can tank one those preps but still make the field on overall earnings.
Finally, it would probably force fillies to try a run at the males BEFORE she gets to go in the derby. Sorry, but if Eight Belles had kept Bob Black jack out of this year’s derby, how on earth would that have been fair?
01 May 2008 at 02:13 pm | #
John,
I love you’re writing, I’m especially enjoying keeping up with you as we count down to Saturday.
01 May 2008 at 08:05 pm | #
Well stated Mr. P. Thanks for your viewpoints and ongoing best interest of the game. Best of luck to you and Mr. Fotias this weekeknd!
Charlie Backstretch
03 May 2008 at 12:03 am | #
Thank you so much, one and all, for taking the time.
My intent was to be fair and objective in bringing the best horses together, making the run-up to Derby even more fun than it is now.
What could be fairer than a point system based on weighted values in graded stakes, the same events that later establishes the intrinsic value of the American stud horse?
Promotable box office events are never a bad thing.
Have a great Derby everyone!
John
19 Aug 2010 at 01:10 am | #
Admission based of earnings just isn’t fair and even I feel that the horses that fare best should get a chance! I totally agree that there must be a change in the rules of the Kentucky Derby, so that deserving horses do get a chance to get in!! Deciding with just the earnings alone seems so unfair! Performance should be the deciding factor without a doubt! Hope the right decision is taken and we can see some champion horses in the Derby next time!!
19 Aug 2010 at 01:11 am | #
Admission based of earnings just isn’t fair and even I feel that the horses that fare best should get a chance! I totally agree that there must be a change in the rules of the Kentucky Derby, so that deserving horses do get a chance to get in!! Deciding with just the earnings alone seems so unfair! Performance should be the deciding factor without a doubt! Hope the right decision is taken and we can see some champion horses in the Derby next time!!
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