|For the next 40 days of New York racing, Executive Editor John Pricci will provide his insights on all things Saratoga for the 35th consecutive year in his original "Saratoga Diary." It debuted in 1977, the year Seattle Slew won the Triple Crown and Jatski was placed first in the Travers Stakes following the disqualification of Run Dusty Run. So keep up with the cold exactas, hot issues, and build your own stable of live horses, all from John's unique perspective, exclusively at HorseRaceInsider.com.
Friday, August 22, 2008
And the Winner of Travers 139 Is…
Saratoga Springs, NY, August 21, 2008--No Big Brown? No problem.
Travers 139, a.k.a. The Travers Stakes Presented by Shadwell Farm, a.k.a. the Mid-Summer Derby, has the makings of the best three-year-old race run this year. Why?
Because at least a half-dozen of the dozen entered can win and none of them could be categorized as a surprise. Arguably, picking the post time favorite is as difficult as projecting a winner.
As the “reputation horse” in a national event, Pyro is the most likely to close the slight choice of the wagering public. But post position 11 could mitigate that thinking.
Saturday’s renewal of the Travers is the Kentucky Derby without Big Brown and a 20-horse field.
The ultimate outcome likely will produce a fair, hard earned verdict, no matter which three-year-old wins this. Which horse that will be is anyone’s best guess.
Here, then, a handicapper’s look at Travers 139, listed in post order, with early line odds in parentheses:
1--Tale of Ekati (20-1).
At Wednesday’s Travers post draw, trainer Barclay Tagg said he thought that Edgar Prado moved his horse too soon in the ultimate Travers prep race, the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes on July 27. Tagg was neither knocking the rider nor making excuses, just giving a fair assessment of the circumstances. The Wood Memorial (Grade 1) winner also appeared short of condition, but has done very well in his training since the race. He runs inside, outside, wherever and whatever he needs to do. Trainer Tagg has been on an absolute tear the last two weeks. Very live longshot.
2--Colonel John (8-1).
Winner of the G1 Santa Anita Derby, he lost his lone dirt start after being eliminated from contention early in his troubled-trip Kentucky Derby. Recycled, he returned in the Swaps (G2) where he finished second to Tres Borrachos. While trainer Eoin Harty admitted to some disappointment with the show finish, he conceded it was a bridge race to get him to Saratoga at tops. He has a big kick and stout pedigree. Garrett Gomez takes the re-ride and Harty, not one prone to hyperbole, said Wednesday that his horse has a “very, very good chance” on Saturday.
3--Da’ Tara (8-1).
It’s been 27 days since the Jim Dandy and there’s still no good answer as to why Alan Garcia sacrificed his colt’s chances by engaging in the must suicidal of speed duels. The tactics made no sense, not to trainer Nick Zito or anyone else. Zito has a history of having horses rebound in big spots off horrendous efforts. If nothing else, the bizarre Jim Dandy will sharpen Da’ Tara’s speed for today’s longer test, the distance no problem for a (G1) Belmont Stakes winner. Da’ Tara had an extremely sharp recent :47.80 work at the Oklahoma training track and will improve. But he doesn’t figure to get loose on the lead the way he did at Belmont.
4--Tiz Big (30-1).
Second after being used hard pace-dueling following a stumbled break in a nine-furlong “non-winners of 2 lifetime” six days ago, it’s hard to fathom how he’s supposed to win a Grade 1 the following weekend. But as Big Brown owner Michael said at Wednesday’s post draw: “I’ve learned never to second guess Allen Jerkens.” Cornelio Velasquez, in a battle for leading rider at the meet, takes the mount again and will probably race close to the lead. If the “Giant Killer” pulls this off, the Racing Hall of Fame ought to give him his own wing.
5--Macho Again (6-1).
The Jim Dandy winner, surprising fourth choice of the linemaker, came to hand in the Derby Trial and used that sprint score to propel him to a place finish in Big Brown’s (G1) Preakness Stakes. Following a one-paced Belmont Stakes effort, he returned to win the Travers prep in subtle, eye-opening style, overcoming far-turn trouble, running down a sharp Tiz Now Tiz Then before holding last-run Pyro safe. He appeared to have reserve energy while crossing the finish line, an observation confirmed by Julien Leparoux, having an outstanding Saratoga stake meet. Thriving here, the Jim Dandy hero is peaking right now but picks up 11 pounds off his last race, at once, a significant but not impossible obstacle to overcome.
6--Cool Coal Man (15-1).
The second member of the Zito trio, the G2 Fountain of Youth winner was most recently a willing third in Big Brown’s G1 Haskell Invitational. His Equiform performance figures have improved to the extent he can compete effectively at this level and indeed might be poised for another forward move. Mineshaft colt debuted in Saratoga last season, finishing fourth after a troubled beginning and subsequent wide trip, making his Spa form difficult to read. Reunites with leading rider Johnny Velazquez, who won with his own previous ride on the colt over the winter.
Zito, Part III. A deep closer, he finished third behind Mambo In Seattle over the track, his lone start at nine furlongs. Given his history of upsetting Grade 1 races, Zito has become a latter day Giant Killer. But we seriously doubt whether even the great Allen Jerkens could pull this off. It appears the colt will run all day but a superfecta finish would represent a major accomplishment in this spot.
8--Harlem Rocker (4-1).
Undefeated in four dirt starts, his lone poor try came on Woodbine’s Polytrack surface in the Plate Trial, an effort that precluded participation in the storied Queens Plate. The G3 Withers Stakes winner rebounded returning to dirt to win Fort Erie’s Prince of Wales Stakes, second leg of the Canadian Triple Crown. Significantly, that victory came at a mile and three-sixteenths under 126 pounds, today‘s impost. His spring performance figures make him competitive with this group and with several months added maturity the Macho Uno colt could prove the “fastest” horse. No one knows how good this colt is, including trainer Todd Pletcher, who’s been anxiously awaiting this spot. Expect he’ll run very well.
9--Mambo in Seattle (5-1).
The restricted Walton Stakes a key Travers prep? In this sophomore season, Big Brown notwithstanding, anything’s possible. Kin to A. P. Indy via his grand-dam, blue hen producer Weekend Surprise, he is seeking a fourth consecutive victory. He hails from connections--Neil Howard and Robby Albarado--that nearly upset mighty Street Sense in last year‘s renewal. After sweeping to command, he withstood a serious stretch challenge from talented late developer You And I Forever, passing the eyeball test with flying colors. He has continued to impress his trainer but he, too, must shoulder eight additional pounds while jumping several classes. Easier said than done.
10--Tres Borrachos (15-1).
Following a third-place finish in the (G2) Arkansas Derby, his connections skipped the Derby and went to Baltimore, where the colt ran like “three drunks” following a badly troubled start, finishing unplaced. Following the Preakness, he returned to his California base and was second in the G3 Affirmed, a race that spring-boarded him to his Swaps victory over Colonel John. Well managed, the Ecton Park gelding once again will be seriously tested for class. His running style, post draw and Saturday’s distance are highly unlikely to help in this spot.
Photo by: Adam Coglianse
Pyro, Morning line favorite for the Travers
Lukewarm favorite of this wide open event, Pyro has the company lines, accomplishments, and performance figures to warrant the linemaker’s respect. If Tale of Ekati’s move in the Jim Dandy was premature, Pyro’s was too late. His Jim Dandy had the look of a perfect Travers prep and his class lines are among the best in the field. But he’s been most effective vs. Grade 2 types and shorter distances have been more suitable. Consistently fastest on the Equiform scale, he’s a strong sentimental choice as his exercise rider Parker Buckley suffered a stroke while on horseback during training hours Monday, was thrown from his mount and, sadly, never recovered.
12--Court Vision (12-1).
Among the upper echelon of 2007 juveniles nine months ago, he never made a great transition from 2 to 3. Third in the Fountain of Youth and Wood Memorial, he was run off his feet in a rough-house Derby try, winding up 13th of 20. Freshened, he prepped for the Virginia Derby in the G3 Colonial Turf Cup over soft ground he couldn’t handle, underscoring that assessment with an excellent effort, beaten a nose in the subsequent G2 10-furlongs showing a strong late. Ten furlongs on dirt is another matter, of course, but he’s doing well enough to give Big Brown’s owner hope that he’ll transition going from turf to dirt. The recent addition of blinkers and Kent Desormeaux have helped. From post 12, he’ll need luck--as will they all.
Most Probable Winner: Macho Again
Most Probable Longshot: Tale of Ekati
Most Promising: Harlem Rocker
Most Probable Money Finisher: Pyro
Written by John Pricci
Thursday, August 21, 2008
NYRA House Rule on Refunds Unfair, Shortsighted
Saratoga Springs, NY, August 21, 2008--Sorry, but after reporting on today’s fourth race, I’m done for the day. Call Sports Phone. I’m through and here’s why.
With five minutes remaining until post time for the fourth, I got up and walked to the self-service betting machine. I bet using a NYRA Cash Card.
Here were my plays: $15 quinella on 4-5; Dime Superfectas on 4,5--ALL--4,5--ALL. This was my betting strategy as I saw the quinella combining the two favorites was paying $8.
Taking 3-1 on the proposition that Ardnavagh and On Lake would finish one-two in either order for two horses I believed laid over the field was a better wager than taking either 2-1 or 7-5 on one or the other to win. I thought they were superior to the group but had no preference.
The second wager was made as both a saver and optimizer. My thinking was anyone else could finish somewhere on the board anywhere. My structured Dime Super would cost $11.20. My total outlay for this race was $26.20.
Given the short prices, it wasn’t worth extending myself further, but it looked like a more than reasonable way to triple my investment, at least.
I put the Dime Super wheel in first: 4--ALL--5--ALL, cost $5.60. It was supposed to read 4,5--ALL--4,5--ALL. No worries. With two minutes to post, I’ll punch in my $15 quinella first then go back and punch in 5--ALL--4--ALL.
Somehow, I mispunched the quinella ticket. Instead of getting a $10 4-5 quinella, I had a $10 quinella wheel with the 5 as the key, cost of $90. I didn’t notice until I saw that my balance was reduced by $80 more than I intended to spend. Since the self-service terminal provides a cancellation option, I took it.
Up pops an advice: EXCEEDS REFUND LIMIT
I asked press box mutuel clerk Kevin Giampa for help. There was now a minute left to post. He immediately called mutuels supervisor Jim Mattes. Mattes got on the phone and apologetically explained machines are programmed not to cancel wagers of $50 or more with less than five minutes to post.
I was aware that a similar rule was instituted some years ago to prevent unscrupulous bettors from manipulating pool prices by creating false projected payoffs. But the spirit of the rule involved extremely large wagers. But how much of an impact would nine $10 quinella wagers keying a 2-1 shot have on a pool at Saratoga Race Course? Zero!
As written, this rule is shortsighted and unfair. It might add to the handle of one race, but it depletes the customer’s bankroll and negatively affects churn on the rest of the card. Which is not the point. The point is service, not the smiling Can-I-Help-You-It’s-My-Job-For-The-Next-36-Days kind of service but REAL customer service.
The State Racing and Wagering Board approved it but the $50 excessive-limit-refund is a NYRA house rule. I can’t think of one good reason why such a small amount is the limit unless management just doesn’t want to make refunds of any kind.
Made a mistake? Sorry, you lose. Want a refund? Sorry, you can‘t have one.
In the interests of fairness and common sense, maybe the State Racing and Wagering Board will intervene by explaining to NYRA that the concept of servicing bettors helps pay industry salaries in this state. Maybe they will; it would be a pleasant surprise.
The results? The 4-2-5-1 Dime Superfecta, a.k.a., the 4--ALL--5--ALL, returned $116.85, which was the original superfecta ticket I needed to augment with a 5--ALL--4--ALL.
And, so, as I listened to the explanation of mutuels supervisor Mattes via the mutuel-bay phone, my original super wager, the winning sequence, timed out and was not transacted. I was prepared to wager, and lose, if necessary, $26.20. Bottom line? The fourth at Saratoga cost me, out of pocket, $191.85.
First Allumeuse; now this.
* * *
Getting With the (New Yok-Bred) Program
Business-wise and aesthetically, it’s not been a great meet. Three and half weeks of constant rain had a lot to do with it. Last year’s record meet is also a reasonable consideration as is, certainly, an economy that‘s in the toilet and not in the imagination of the American people.
That’s the trouble with the arrogantly powerful; they believe everyone
Anyway, the most alarming element of the downward trends is the interstate simulcast handle. The cost of gas, hotels and food did not impact as badly when you’re not traveling. So, it must be something else.
Clearly, the rain that forced turf races to be rescheduled to the main track and rendered many interesting races unappealing is the elephant in the room. But then so has the accent on state-bred racing which the betting public, fairly or not, perceives as less than New York racing.
That perception is not out of line, especially since sprints of less than six furlongs, turf or dirt, have become a dominant theme. The backlash it has generated has not made many new converts to the New York breeding program. The argument is that quality racing has been sacrificed at the altar of field size.
Then there was yesterday’s Albany Stakes, a terrific race that only would have been better had not the promising Writingonthewall been scratched.
It featured Tin Cup Chalice, an undefeated winner of six races including three stakes, one in open company, and eligible for the OTB Big Apple Triple bonus of $250,000 for a sweep of Belmont Park’s Mike Lee, Finger Lakes’ New York Derby and the Albany. Under the conditions, he carried highweight of 124 pounds. The scratch of Writingonthewall, a talented frontrunner, was significantly helpful to Tin Cup Chalice, making him lone speed.
From the connections that brought New York-bred Fio Rito to upset the 1981 Whitney when the New York-bred program was in its infancy, they had to spot Big Truck, winner of the Grade 3 Tampa Derby and, prepping, was narrowly beaten in the Samuel F Davis.
Tin Cup Chalice also spotted Icabad Crane three pounds, a winner of the Federico Tesio and third in the Rushaway and G1 Preakness. The three remaining entrants were all stakes placed.
It wasn’t the Travers but it probably was one of the more interesting mid-week races for three-year-olds since the NYRA used to run the Jim Dandy on a Thursday.
Tin Cup Chalice, taking advantage of the pace as expected, held off a gritty challenge by That’srightofficer, sprinting his final eighth-mile off slow fractions in :12.19, stretching his record to 7-for-7. What a cool horse!
Kudos to Pedro Rodriguez, or P-Rod, as he’s known in the New York wine region of Finger Lakes and in Tampa. Good show, just like it looked on paper.
* * *
Not an auspicious beginning for chalk players as Flibberjibit, holding a commanding edge on paper, chased the pace of Crafty N P but was not up to the task, fading off the board at odds on. The winner, trained by Linda Rice, continued her roll. It was her seventh winner of the meet and first since saddling the first four finishers in the Mechanicville Stakes.
Even though he earns recognition, I’m not sure trainer David Donk is truly appreciated as a turf ace. Here he gets Relatively Ready prepared to go 8.5 furlongs on turf off a dirt sprint in May. Pedigree is nice, but then you have to do it. Kudos to Donk and Cornelio Velasquez for timing the run perfectly. Debuting Umbra had winning position throughout, challenged three wide on the turn, and finished somewhat one-paced; expect improvement next out… Debuting Pynaformer finished gamely from the middle lane; follow.
When did Javier Castellano think he had it lost with 8-5 favorite Pretty Carina? Probably when he hit her left handled and she ducked out, practically propped, got back on the stride but the momentum of Awesome I Am carried her to victory. It was a legitimate excuse; dah
. Bet back.
Written by John Pricci
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Jockey Club Lacks Needed Sense of Urgency
Saratoga Springs, NY, August 19, 2008--I’m not as smart as I think but smart enough to know this much: Might doesn’t only not make right but it doesn’t necessarily make smart either.
Making recommendations is no guarantor of making progress, or that the recommendations will solve a problem any better than it treats a symptom. Which brings us to Sunday’s Jockey Club Round Table on Matters Pertaining to Racing, a Saratoga tradition since 1954.
The annual gathering is not really a round table at all. By definition, people sitting around a circular table means that all participants are created equal and that actual dialogue might be taking place. I was not in attendance, but I found the substance of the Round Table meeting at http://www.jockeyclub.com/tsc.asp
Photo by: Toni Pricci
Dinny Phipps is a man who insists on hearing bad news immediately
Indeed, if there were, literally, a Jockey Club table, it would be anything but round. Ogden Mills (Dinny) Phipps is clearly the poohbah de tutti poohbah
, standing at a podium and introducing hand-picked speakers to enlighten the august body, the details of which eventually trickle down to the rest of us who may be lost in a sea of mutuel tickets.
While no one questions the motives of the organization that has as its mission “the improvement of Thoroughbred breeding and racing,” Sunday’s exercise called for more R & D when one would have thought that by now, with Congress lurking since June, racing’s leaders would be farther along in the process.
None of the recommendations were bad ideas. Quite the contrary. It’s just seems a tad late in the game to first develop a business plan for the most efficient and cost-effective infrastructure for equine drug testing and research; the development of testing laboratory standards; development of a request for proposals requiring adherence to standards established by the state racing commissions and, finally, the development and maintenance of a facility to store frozen samples for future analysis.
Drug testing is currently being done by 18 laboratories throughout the United States, the other issue being that drug rules differ in the 38 jurisdictions those labs monitor. It’s a huge, complicated issue.
With the benefit of hindsight, it’s too bad it had to take the running of the 2008 Kentucky Derby to get this ball rolling.
Among other recommendations made were the immediate adoption and implementation by all racing commissions of the RCI Model Rule on Uniform Classification Guidelines and Penalties that apply to trainers, veterinarians and owners, its implementation to be adopted no later than by the end of the year.
As it specifically regards “milkshaking”--a performance-enhancing practice via the use of alkalinizing agents--the committee calls for the overall prohibition of the use of all alkalinizing substances, as recommended under the auspices of Racing Commissioners International, calling for its implementation by requesting that Thoroughbred Tracks in North America “consider implementation… by ‘house rule’.”
Other suggestions are that racing associations, training facilities and individual licensees participate in a commission-approved injury reporting database, whereby interested parties collaborate on the development of standardized protocols and procedures for pre-race, post-race and post mortem exams.
According to the Jockey Club website, Stuart S. Janney III, chairman of the Thoroughbred Safety Committee, said that “medication issues continue to haunt this industry and they are and will continue to be a priority for this committee as evidenced by several of today’s recommendations. We once again vigorously encourage the respective industry organizations to act on these recommendations in a timely manner.”
To its credit, the Jockey Club has launched a dedicated section containing all Safety Committee recommendations and resulting actions on its home page at http://www.jockeyclub.com
, and a transcript of the conference is now available.
In addition to recommendations, several speakers presented the results of studies challenging criticisms of the racing industry since the Eight Belles tragedy. Matt Iuliano, Vice President of Jockey Club registration services, challenged claims that modern practices have weakened the breed.
Iuliano said that pedigree research conducted by the Jockey Club appeared to reveal that no one sire line is responsible for producing horses with a higher degree of unsoundness, and that essentially there was no increase in unsoundness leading to the decline of field size in the last 47 years from more than 11 horses to just over 6.
Dr. Larry Bramlage, a familiar figure to Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup viewers, challenged the notion that two-year-old racing contributes to unsoundness or catastrophic injury. Bramlage presented data indicating that horses which race at 2 run more often with more average earnings per start than horses debuting at 3.
How are racing’s customers supposed to perceive this, as progress, or statistical spin? How will Congress respond to the “progress” this represents? Legislators already are at work on a bill certain to rock industry. But what can racing do when Congress holds simulcasting hostage? No simulcasting; no game.
Isn’t the recommendation to adopt RCI Model Rules old news? Wasn’t milkshaking dealt with definitively years ago? Don’t hear much about milkshaking these days. My fault, or the fault of an industry not known for its transparency?
And so the organization whose charter it is to improve thoroughbred racing and breeding is asking the tracks to consider implementation of their recommendations by house rule. “Consider?” It further wants implementation of a commission-approved injury reporting database using standardized protocols. And this is new news, too? Mary Scollay, D.V.M., has wanted to do this for years. How overdue is it? Ten years, fifty?
The “medication issue continues to haunt the industry and will continue to be a priority as evidenced by several of today’s recommendations,” said Janney. But nary a mention of permissive medications: Butazolidin, an analgesic that allows horses to compete while “racing sound”; Lasix, the granddaddy of masking agents.
Clearly, horses need therapeutic and/or prophylactic treatment. They just don’t need it on race day. But there were no mentions of moving current withdrawal periods or-- heaven forbid someday--a possible return to hay, oats, and two parts hydrogen, one part oxygen.
The fact that no one sire is responsible for the spate of recent breakdowns ignores all empirical knowledge. Just as speed horses beget speed horses and turf horses beget grass runners and even as certain sires transmit track-specific aptitudes to their offspring, so, too, does inherently unsound horses produce runners with a predisposition to unsoundness.
In the sales marketplace, as everyone knows, talented, accomplished runners are retired prematurely. But somehow we must believe that the owners of Raise a Native and Danzig, to name two phenomenally pre-potent studs, wanted to retire those amazing speed merchants to the breeding shed after only a handful of starts?
Of course, research will show horses that race at 2 earned more money on average than horses debuting at 3. Well, not only is there a ton of purse money available to modern-day juveniles but debuting three-year-olds are horses that, whatever the reason, can't
make a start at 2.
If horses could race at 2, they would. Late developers lacking juvenile foundation and seasoning are left behind the developmental curve at 3, hence the lower earnings. It’s the same principle that makes the yearlings which are allowed to romp in their paddocks--as opposed to hot-house sales types--better two-year-olds. It was a specious argument, unworthy of those who would improve the breed.
Written by John Pricci