August 18, 2010
Dear Diary,
If only this meet were as easy to read as a few of the most difficult races, it would be possible to put business at the old Spa in some kind of perspective.
But I can’t seem to figure this thing out and it seems that neither can anyone else with any certitude.
The local NBC affiliate, WNYT-Ch. 13, did a feature on business in Saratoga on their Tuesday night news program by going to some of the 60 restaurants in this “city in the country.”
According to the shopkeepers, business was booming and, if not booming, then certainly better than in 2009. If only the racetrack were doing that well.
Attendance figures are now officially disappointing, down 10.7 percent from 2009.
The best theory posited for this is that all those people who did not make reservations per usual this year because they weren’t sure there was going to be a year this year.
Apparently decided to do something else, like make a day trip or two and when they got here decided to spend their money on dinner instead of at the windows.
It is said that you don’t eat your betting money or bet your eating money. Looks like some people are taking that to heart.
Earlier in the meet, attendance figures were lower but were “beating” the national trend. That no longer is the case.
The main event is the Grade 1 Betfair-TVG Alabama Stakes featuring a colossal West meets East matchup between divisional leading Blind Luck and the Eastern filly who would wrest that title away, Devil May Care.
But what do the figures really mean? What can they be compared to? As stated here before, a 40-day meet is a new paradigm, measurable only against itself. Perhaps when the meet concludes on Labor Day, some enterprising bean counter will figure a way to pro-rate 40 days of racing into 2009’s 36.
According to statistics released by the New York Racing Association, on-track handle has slipped at an identical rate to attendance, down 10.7 percent, which measured the first three full weeks of the meet, meaning days 5 through 22, the first four days of the meet incomparable in a meaningful fashion.
While interstate handle figures were also disappointing, all-sources handle reflecting nationwide simulcast wagering was down 4.8 percent, beating the nationwide trend.
That clearly is the good news because it indicates that the Saratoga simulcast product is still the best and most popular offered in this country.
Critics can point to a greater number of lower class claiming and maiden-claiming events, but that’s a national trend reflecting the smaller foal crops in recent years. Good horses, even in the best of times, are an exception, not the rule.
Field size at the meet has been good, averaging 8.47 starters per races, fractionally lower than 2009. Actually, some of the decreased handle reflect six fewer races run this year than last, putting declines in better perspective.
The reality is that all-sources daily handle to date is $13.4 million, after the loss of 10 turf races. There isn’t a track anywhere that wouldn't sign for little more than half that handle number on a daily basis.
Quality has suffered, yes, but not in dramatic fashion when compared to recent years. Even when races haven’t attracted the best stock, the product on the track has produced good wagering fare, competitive racing, and a disproportionate number of exciting, close finishes.
But we’ve seen a legitimate star emerge in Blame, even if he was in receipt of five pounds from Quality Road. We’ve seen Devil May Care develop into possibly the most talented three-year-old filly in the country.
We’ve seen Position Limit emerge is a juvenile filly with a future, and Kantharos win by daylight again, geared down, after spending the first part of the Saratoga Special trying to find his footing after getting bumped at the break.
We’ve seen A Little Warm become a possible Travers favorite with a first rate score in the Jim Dandy and the reigning Horse of the Year work strongly toward a defense of her title.
The meeting is at the five-sixteenths pole and there’s a host of important races remaining, many of them here. Saratoga is approaching headstretch and despite disappointing numbers the vibe still feels positive, just as it was on July 23.
19 Aug 2010 at 06:41 am | #
Mr. Pricci: Quoting you, “Even when races haven’t attracted the best stock, the product on the track has produced good wagering fare, competitive racing, and a disproportionate number of exciting, close finishes.” A fair statement, but isn’t the same true at other racetracks around the country? You keep referring to good horses and quality races, as if only a few racetracks provide such, as if they have a monoply on exciting, bettable races that return nice payoffs.
Just today, in the first four races at Delaware Park, the following sires of entrants are listed:
Mr. Livermore, Forestry, Indian Charlie, Lion Heart, Steven Got Even, More Than Ready, Toccet, Stravinsky, Malibu Moon, and Petionville - certainly quality entrants here.
Just the first three races at Finger Lakes the following sires of entrants are listed: Distinctive Pro, Gulch, Steven Got Even, Budda.
Good horses and quality are at all racetracks, as are good, exciting races. Damn shame that only a handful of racetracks get turf writer coverage, thus negating the appeal of Thoroughbred horse racing to the public.
19 Aug 2010 at 07:00 am | #
Wendell,
If only I were able to clone myself I could be at two tracks simultaneously and cover both.
And I love Delaware Park, which in the past has been referred to as the “Saratoga of the Mid-Atlantic.” No doubt the product of some feeble minded turf writer. When will they ever learn?
19 Aug 2010 at 07:49 am | #
Mr. Pricci: You, and your fellow turf writers coast-to-coast, do not have to be cloned to inform readers that Thoroughbred racing at all racetracks is worthy of their attention; particularly when most racetracks everywhere are virtually brand-new with modern facilities (Delaware, Philly, Presque Isle, Calder, Charlestown, Finger Lakes, and points west); the vast majority of potential neebies live closer to these racetracks than Saratoga, Del Mar, Churchill, Keeneland, etc. Visualize the increase in popularity of racing if a portion of turf writer commentary was directed in their direction.
You say you love Delaware Park. I didn’t know that, how many others did? From all your previous commentary at this site, I don’t recall you ever praising racing at Delaware.
BTW, rolling doubles and pick threes today at Delaware. Leaving now for Mohegan Sun - beautiful day; doesn’t get any better than this.
19 Aug 2010 at 08:15 am | #
My own wagering on Saratoga has certainly declined in the last 2-3 years as the quality of racing diminished and the turf sprints increased. I look at the Spa cards daily but often find only one or two contests that I want to bet. Perhaps others are pleased with the changes, but it is difficult to challenge the numbers.
One issue that I have not seen addressed with regard to the declining off-track handle is the impact of the recent legislative changes that have led many credit card companies to refuse to process deposits to legal ADWs. I know at least two ADWs are being severly affected by this, try as they might to encourage alternative methods of funding. Undoubtedly some who prefer to fund their accounts with plastic have simply stopped wagering. Others have switched to offshores, which can be most creative in getting around U.S. banking laws. But I suppose this is a column for another day.
19 Aug 2010 at 08:40 am | #
I say the meet and numbers at the Spa will finish stronger than a Zenyatta stretch run…
The Alabama looks real like a great east/west matchup that we have waited for.
The Travers looks like a competitive and great wagering race even without Lucky.
The Personal Ensign has the Rachel appeal vs. the now filly Life at Ten.
The Hopeful has the much anticipated Boys At Toscanova vs. Wine Police.
The Woodward brings back QR vs. Rail Trip.
There’s still a chance for an A grade with a strong finish!
19 Aug 2010 at 08:50 am | #
Corrow,
You praise the modern facilities of several racetracks. Have you ever been to any of them??
From what I read from you, it appears you’re nothing more than a chronic complainer who spends his days at dusty OTB parlors.
19 Aug 2010 at 09:09 am | #
Santa Anita is going back to dirt.
Hopefully this is the beginning of the end for synthetics!!
19 Aug 2010 at 09:56 am | #
Thank you John, for another thought provoking article. Clearly, Saratoga remains the #1 signal in racing but the wagering dynamics have changed greatly this summer and that is a big story as well.The story is the Monmouth business model.
I ask you this question John not only as a horseplayer, but respectfully want your opinion because you are a great advocate for racing. What percent of your fan base can follow racing six days a week? What percent of your audience has an extra 30 to 50 hours a week? And if the racing schedule isn’t for your fans, who is it for?
In May, Monmouth hit the ground running with their upgraded meet that raced on weekends.. The question going into July was how will Monmouth fare when Saratoga and Del Mar begin. As far as handle, that question has been answered. Monmouth daily handle remained in the mid $7 million dollar range, basically unchanged from the first 8 weeks of their meet.Obviously part of their $4 million increase a day is coming at the expense of others, including The Spa.
Six day meets, even if they are at the sports top venue, are obsolete.There are important lessons to be learned here,and the big one is how Monmouth showed that improving your racing product on the track and getting rid of your worst days so you can showcase your product on the weekends to a larger audience can yield big dividends.
I truly believe the future of Saratoga is going Friday thru Sunday with a longer meet. Paying all starters would almost guarantee 14 horse fields.Those 14 horse fields would generate the largest payoffs in the sport with the exception of the Derby. Based on Monmouth’s success, I believe the Saratoga average handle would be over $25 million a day with 12 races. The greatest Saratoga meet in recent memory because almost every fan would have to play on those three days. A true renaissance of racing.I can dream, can’t I?
19 Aug 2010 at 11:17 am | #
Great stuff, people. In fact, am cutting and saving and will address more thoroughly in a column or blog.
As Eric said, a column for another day. And yes, PE, plenty of time to earn an ‘A’ great. Then we need to get them to try harder, yes?
Thanks all!
JP
19 Aug 2010 at 01:23 pm | #
I absolutely agree with #8 Michael.
Thursday to Sunday would be a nice sked also.
But the NYRA program must downsize and re-emphasize quality racing. The type of racing that made Saratoga the showcase of the sport.
At the same time, a Belmont Fall Championship season should be bolstered also with a reduction of dates. The NYRA should be able to convince the NYSRWB to allow for a reflection of the times.
Saratoga cannot continue to “steal” from Belmont Park’s roster of stakes races forever. Why not have TWO strong and healthy race meetings in New York?
By neglecting the Belmont Fall Championship meeting, a weakened purse structure and a Philadelphia Park’s “new and improved” condition book for September will prove to be yet another challenge for the New York racing program.
Other racing jurisdictions are taking bold steps
while the NYRA continues to accept handle and attendance declines while proclaiming a “roaring” success.
19 Aug 2010 at 01:55 pm | #
Going to a three or four day meet will certainly allow for increased purses, which supposedly attracts what turf writers call ‘good’ or ‘quality’ horses and full fields.
Monmouth’s shortened meet has attained larger attendance, unfortunately the handle derived from such has not exponentially increased enough to cover the increase in purse money (which all, from management to turf writers, disregard as unimportant).
A shortened meet has and will deprive numerous trainers of the opportunity to race their horses, and give the likes of Pletcher, Asmussen, Dutrow, Mclaughlin, Zito, Baffert, etc. an opportunity to be even more dominant than they are already.
If you commentators could prove to me that you pick more winners wagering on stake and allowance races than claimers, that these races are different than claimers, and that you get more excitement, thrills, etc. I will jump on board.
Having been around racing for decades, I know you don’t, as there is no difference.
BTW, claiming races constitute the vast majority of races run in this country, and they keep numerous owners, trainers, and jockeys in business, making a living. Now, as I said, if stake and allowance races are easier to handicap and to pick winners, and you want to cut off the income of the claiming owners, trainers, and jockeys - go for it!
19 Aug 2010 at 03:26 pm | #
Gary Walker: You are correct. I am a chronic complainer. I believe the opposite of complainer is one who sides with complacency. A complainer keeps the waters churning, preventing plankton, slim, and giving the water oxygen - a healthy situation. Any intelligent person listens to complainers, and finds those complacent either disinterested or not to bright.
Complacency has brought down empires; caused wifes to leave husbands and vis virsa; and is the reason that NYRA racetracks are dependent on slot revenue or casino/state dole to continue in operation.
Complacency is paramount in NYRA management’s reasoning: they simply can’t see the forest beyond the one tree in front of them. It is the same ole’ same ole’ every year. Turf writers expound on the road to the Triple Crown; then the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Stakes; then on to the Travers; then on to the Breeders’ Cup. All the time Thoroughbred racing is declining in attendance and handle coast-to-coast. Does it take a rocket scientist to suggest that something is wrong, that a different presentation or format should be presented to the public? This year’s racing presentation by NYRA, Churchill, Keeneland, and Santa Anita/Del Mar are no different than what was offered twenty years ago.
Slot players by the thousands, at this very moment, are totally unaware that instead of putting $20 into a machine in five minutes, they could wager $20 on nine or ten races over several hours, just play numbers (exactas, trifectas, doubles, pick threes) and they will do much better financially than they will sitting in front of a slot machine. Will they ever know? Hardly, as all the media hype and racetrack management is directing their attention to the next stupid stake race, with a purse totally underserving (to be won, no doubt, by Pletcher, Baffert, Asmussen, etc.
As to whether I have been to Delaware Park or Philadelphia Park is a meaningless question. Of course I have: FYI, both these racetracks are far more modern and clean than Aqueduct, Belmont, or Saratoga.
As to the OTB I patronize. I would be ecstatic if it were merely dusty; unfortunately the facility lacks qualified management, has television sets in disrepair, has chairs that are about ready to collapse, but it does have good food - imagine that (prepared by a very nice, diligent woman). Fortunately, Mohegan Sun and Foxwood casinos are only an hours drive.
19 Aug 2010 at 04:37 pm | #
Mr. Mohegan Corrow,
You said,
If you commentators could prove to me that you pick more winners wagering on stake and allowance races than claimers, that these races are different than claimers, and that you get more excitement, thrills, etc. I will jump on board.
Having been around racing for decades, I know you don’t, as there is no difference.
Mr. Preach picks the feature race every day, usually a stake race or allowance and shows a profitable ROI
Time to jump on board!
19 Aug 2010 at 05:12 pm | #
Personal Ensign: As to Mr. Pricci’s picking the feature race every day, where is the money? I can pick logical favorites all day, but at the end of the day, where is the bundle of money?
Try wagering on doubles and pick threes/fours at any racetrack anywhere, and only include the favorite, if the horse figures, with a couple of medium to long odds nags. You might make some money.
Anyone can pick a logical favorite, but at the end of the day, how big is the bankroll?
19 Aug 2010 at 05:38 pm | #
Mr. Corrow: How about connecting the dots and building doubles, pic3’s, exactas around the feature?
If logical favorites win more often in feature races as oppose to cheap claimers where you have to guess if they have four good feet, then why isn’t it better?
Your way or the highway is not always the answer!
20 Aug 2010 at 07:47 am | #
Let me give an example, I open the card today (friday) at Saratoga, I see loads of 5 1/2 turf prints and the like. Are you kidding me? I’ll save my money. Trainers may like short sprints as they seem to fill, but bettors, for the most part don’t. They just don’t get it. That’s the number one reason for the decline in NY racing, can the racing secretary or his boss.
20 Aug 2010 at 07:49 pm | #
To all:
In terms of choosing from essentially the same race every day--the feature of the day--and showing an ROI of about a 13 percent ROI, which doesn’t include a blended takeout of about 15 percent from the various tracks we play, my question is this:
When is someone going to expose Mr. Corrow as a gambler who has absolutely no idea what he’s talking about or is intellectually dishonest, or both.
Maybe it’s time to start charging money for this handicapping analysis.
When 3-1/2 years of profit isn’t good enough, it just might make sense to do something better with my time.
21 Aug 2010 at 06:28 am | #
Bravo John. I agree that your PROVEN service should be a pay for service. Not to belabor the point, but a profit of 13% over 3 1/2 years is a remarkable feat. The important part for bettors to understand is that the selections come complete with an analysis which validates the wagers authenticity.
I say good luck John (even though I know you will not carry this through) LOL