Wherever I am, Saturday is a Holy Day of Prognostication.
I make no other plans, needing to be at the racetrack or simulcast facility. If I’m not, someone either had the bad taste to get married on a Saturday or I’ve died, in which case I wouldn‘t even be alive in the double.
Saturdays, such as today’s card featuring two Grade 1s; the Woodward, not a great betting race, and the Forego, a real head-scratcher.
Cards that feature high class races generally are more difficult as there generally are not as many easily eliminated no-hopers. Chaos is difficult and time consuming to deal with, but the reward often is more than commensurate with the risk.
I prefer the vertical pools; exactas, trifectas, superfectas. Sorry, no Super 5 spoken here. It’s not that I have an aversion to the “all” button, it’s just that I have too much respect for my bankroll.
Besides, here’s the rule: The cleaner the punch, the better the value.
But I’ll also look at the Pick 6. If there are two legitimate singles, preferably three, I’m in. Otherwise, I’m like 90 percent of the other players; if I can’t afford the spread, I’m out of the pool.
On Thursday, for instance, I spent $24 chasing the $400,000 carryover. Serious players spent a lot more, of course, wagering $1.5 million in search of a score. Four players did just that, taking down $337K.
Thankfully, players like myself are not limited to one track or one life-changing wager. Players can look at 20 or 25 races from around the country and select from the most promising Pick 4 sequences.
When I first started handicapping professionally, some non-regulars would approach me and say something like “the track wants you to lose.”
I explained two things: If that were true, eventually there would be no fans left to play the game, and that, by definition, the word parimutuel derives from the French meaning “between us.”
So it’s you against me, with the track taking a 20 percent blended rake from everybody. At that rate, parenthetically, it’s a wonder that more players haven’t left the game.
But now it turns out that because of disparate takeout rates in the Pick 6, it’s in the vested interest of New York Racing Association tracks that players lose. To wit:
And that’s because now the track wants you to lose money in the Pick 6 pool. At New York Racing Association tracks, the P6 takeout is 16 percent on non-carryover days; 26 percent on carryover days.
In fairness, at least 25 percent is mandated by the state in all pools combining three of more finish positions, a Pick 3 or greater; Trifecta, Super, etc.
I’m no math whiz, but a 16 percent of a $100,000 non-carryover pool nets the association 16 percent of $75,000, after $25,000 was paid out in Pick 5 consolations.
With a carryover in play the next day, the handle would be, say $400,000, which has been roughly the rule of thumb this meet, 4-1, when chasing a carryover. The track’s cut on the new money bet would amount to over $100,000.
From the track’s perspective, disparate rates for different situations is good business.
But the problem here is that not all Pick 6 winnings are churned back the same way conventional wagers are. Some of it goes to buy a new car or pay the rent.
Further, if the sequence is made too difficult by the placement of the most difficult races on the card in the sequence, the tack can backfire when the cost of spreading becomes too prohibitive, even for the biggest players.
Tracks think that high payouts are a great marketing tool. They’re wrong. Winning is the better tool. Straight wagers and multiples such as doubles and exactas keep players in the game longer; it doesn’t bust them out the way super-exotics do.
But if betting a little to make a lot is the preferred tack, fractional betting has been the players’ best friend. All players, not just the rank and file bettors. Monmouth’s Pick 5 is not an easy bet to cash but it’s been highly successful this year, the product lower takeout and lower cost to wager more comprehensively.
The New York Racing Association, meanwhile, has not embraced fractional wagering, with the exception of the Dime Super. On an Internet chat Thursday, NYRA President Charlie Hayward indicated they are “reviewing fractional wagering on other bets.”
However, he lamented that while Dime Supers have been very popular with NYRA’s customers that it did not increase total wagers on superfectas but that‘s OK because it was “income neutral.”
Hayward then explained what would happen in a Pick 6 scenario but never addressed specifically institution of a 50-Cent Pick 4 or Pick 5, which is not very encouraging to its rank and file customers.
When the NYRA approaches the State Racing and Wagering Board next year with requests it’s unlikely they’ll request anything they don’t believe would help the bottom line. Take care of your loyal customers and the bottom line will take care of itself.


03 Sep 2010 at 10:07 pm | #
Timely stuff John. A guy in Vegas, Steve, is famous around town for stepping up. The horizontals were his game and hitting some of them 10 or 20x’s commonplace. Steve had the toughest beat in history. In a multiple pic 6 c/o @ SA paying in the millions he was alive and running 1, 2 at the 1/8th pole with the 3rd horse another 5 back in the last leg when his horse in front went down. You can guess the rest. Anyhow, Steve is gone. Maybe his opinion got too soft, maybe he compromised his work habits. Nevertheless, takeout most certainly helped racing cannibalize 1 of its best customers. Add withholding taxes and tips and the figures stagger. Conservatively, 1.5 million in handle alone/yr went with him. Not sure what % would have kept Steve in the game but obviously 10% of anything beats 26% of 0. Hayward admitted as much on national tv. The sooner the better. Keep beating the drum.
04 Sep 2010 at 05:59 am | #
Mr. Pricci: Quoting you, “Cards that feature high class races generally are more difficult as there generally are not many easily eliminated no-hopers.” Appears that you are agreeing that the odds of winning improve as the class level drops, thus making my beloved claiming races a better choice for bettors. Now, if you would only inform me how the high class races are any different from claiming races from the saddling area, to the post parade, to the race down the backstretch, into the turn, and down the stretch to the human eye; and, how the high class races offer more thrills, excitement, and enjoyment you will have explained to me something that I have been trying to determine for decades.
As to the pick six, I, as probably many other bettors, read Steven Crist’s Saratoga Diary, where he goes into detail every day on wagering on the pick six. I give him credit for emphasizing the gamble aspect of Thoroughbred racing, but in my case he is talking to the wall as I have no intentions of wagering from $800 to $3000 per day on the pick six; and, I can’t imagine that there are many bettors who do. I could be wrong, but I don’t believe he has ‘hit’ the pick six more than once or twice in several years of blogging, which points out several things: 1) the pick six is the worst wager offered, 2) one has to wager heavily to win the pick six consistently, 3) the pick six is a sucker bet, 4) that NYRA promotes it at all, knowing that it fleeces bettors’ bankroll, is a disgrace, and 5) NYRA’s moving races around the pick six, such as a stake race to the third race to make the pick six more difficult, clearly indicates that NYRA does not want anyone to win.
04 Sep 2010 at 08:28 am | #
Corrow, Crist has scored several times on the Pick Six which is great for him, but If I had 3 grand to put in I might have hit a few too. Wonder how successful he’d be playing with a smaller bankroll?
04 Sep 2010 at 09:52 am | #
Wendell, we actually agree on something. The practice of “dissing” your feature race in the interest of increasing the degree of difficulty is a disservice to the sport. As an illustration, I will definitely play thr late Pick 4 today because Quality Road makes it appear more like a Pick 3. I can now afford to spread a little farther. That is handle that would not have been in the pool had it appeared to be an inscrutable sequence.
Right you are, Doug. We look at handle year over year but national handle is down nearly 30 percent over the last eight years. How long can that go on?
Austin, having all the money in the world doesn’t improve one’s opinion but it can hide a multitide of sins. But having watched Steve work for the last quarter-century or so, the sobriquet “Pick 6 King” is deserved.
JP
04 Sep 2010 at 10:35 am | #
I think the Pick 6 has been bad for racing. It has to have a negative effect on handle and churn. It’s high takeout and it concentrates winnings in fewer hands, winnings which get taken off the table in many cases. What is the cumulative effect?
04 Sep 2010 at 02:37 pm | #
So, Mr. Pricci, The Woodward stakes is beneficial to you by allowing you to single it thus making a pick four a pick three, and helping tremendously those involved in the pick six. The Woodward, on paper, will be about exciting as waiting at the airport for your mother-in-law to deplane.
Is the Woodward worth a purse of $750,000? Wouldn’t a purse of $200,000 accomplish the samething, draw the same horses? Thus making available $550,000 to be distributed to the purses of other races, putting more money in more owners pockets to purchase more thoroughbreds.
The Woodward only enriches Edward Evans, Todd Pletcher, and Johnny V., and further increases the stranglehold Pletcher has on the industry.
I hope, of course, Quality Road gets beat. The Woodward means nothing to me in excitement or in creating a wagering interest - a race with that kind of purse is simply disgusting!
04 Sep 2010 at 02:44 pm | #
Agree with Mr Corrow on point A:
Fail to see the benefit of a 1/5 shot in a pick 3 or pick 4 scenario. Sets up a potential small payoff. Would rather key a sequence with a 5/2 prop you can key around.
Also agree that a lower purse of say 350-500k would attract the same field.
05 Sep 2010 at 09:13 pm | #
In a Spa premeet interview Mr Hayward said they were studying the fractioanl bets and it would be done before the meet was over, oh well
01 Jun 2011 at 10:00 pm | #
Nothing like a great race, how’s the atmosphere at Old Hilltop today?
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