We love the idea of a place where The Turf Meets The Price Point offering two new wagers that feature reduced takeout in the hopes that good betting will attract people to good racing.
One of the new bets is the Del Mar Pick Five with a 14 percent takeout fashioned after the one offered at Hollywood Park that proved so popular with SoCal horseplayers, the circuit that made the Pick Six famous.
The bet will be called the 50-Cent Players Pick 5 and offered under the same parameters used by Hollywood.
The wise move was offering it on the first five races of the day so that the sequence could begin around feature-race time at East Coast tracks (read Saratoga here) and end just before dinner time, except on Friday when Del Mar’s first post is 4 p.m.
Speaking of Saratoga, it might pay for the old Spa to promote the fact this bet is available. Tracks don’t make as much as they do from live racing, of course, but it could boost Del Mar simulcast handle significantly, not only on the Pick Five but all races in the sequence.
Players Pick Five requires bettors to select all five winners in the sequence with all monies in the pool going to the Pick Five winners. Unlike Hollywood, however, there is no pool splitting or consolations: If no one picks five, the money is carried over to the following day.
The other wager is low priced, too, but the format is something that hasn’t really been embraced in this country: the head-to-head proposition wager, though the track says it has polling data to the contrary.
We’re thinking soccer on four legs--even if the FIFA women’s finals proved great theater.
The head-to-head wager will be conducted on the feature race each Saturday, the horses chosen by the Del Mar racing office. The prop bet matchup will be publicized in advance, the payoff determined by the parimutuel odds.
Del Mar also plans to seed the Pick Six pool each Sunday with $50,000, in effect providing a carryover with no takeout on the seeded amount. Seed money will not be planted if a regular carryover is in effect.
In a press release, Del Mar President and CEO Joe Harper noted that the new lower takeout wagers were instituted with the approval of the Thoroughbred Owners of California, significant in that it was this group supported a takeout increase that resulted in a horseplayer boycott of Santa Anita this past winter.
Hopefully, this was instituted by the newly installed TOC President, Lou Raffetto, who pushed for and instituted lower takeout rates when he was President of the Maryland Jockey Club.
In order to improve its product on the racing side, Del Mar is offering a $1,000 and a 20 percent boost to overnight purses for horses who made their most recent start outside California and have not raced there in the last six months.
The seaside track needed to do something dramatic to insure that scheduling the first five-day race week in Southern California since the fall of 2010 has a chance to work. There will be days featuring 10, nine, eight and seven-race programs.
Cash incentives have helped to attract new shooters from Canada, Texas, Iowa and the state of Washington. The four-day race week had become the norm recently, the horse shortage having a particularly harmful effect on the SoCal horse industry.
The hope is Del Mar won’t have to go to a four-day schedule for the 37-day meet that begins Wednesday afternoon with its traditional opening day fixture, the Oceanside Stakes, which last year helped attract a record opening day crowd of over 45,000.
The Grade 1 stakes schedule includes the Pacific Classic; the Eddie Read (turf) and Clement L. Hirsch (female turf); the Bing Crosby and Pat O‘Brien (sprints); Del Mar Oaks (3-year-old turf fillies) and the two big juvenile races, the Debutante and Futurity for fillies and colts, respectively.
Mr. Commons, trained by John Shirreffs, will be the heavy Oceanside favorite. When last seen he finished eighth in the Preakness, following a show finish in the Santa Anita Derby. In his only turf start, he broke his maiden sprinting by an impressive five lengths.


20 Jul 2011 at 11:05 am | #
John,
That head to head wager isn’t low priced; it’s a 10% take plus breakage on a two horse proposition. It’s the highest priced bet there is anywhere.
20 Jul 2011 at 11:46 am | #
Kyle,
The head-to-head average takeout will be about 15% not exactly the highest priced bet anywhere. With maximum breakage it can be a 19.9% bet.
20 Jul 2011 at 11:58 am | #
Andy,
So between 7.5 and 10% per betting interest. Would you wager into a six horse field with a 40-50% take? the best case scenario with this wager is if the exact same amount is bet on both horses - both will be 4-5, no breakage. Assuming they are both true even money shots you’re at a 20% disadvantage.
20 Jul 2011 at 12:46 pm | #
Kyle,
You need to compare apples to apples. Using your method if there was a horse that had 50% of the pool in a 10 horse race you would be at minimum disadvantage of 30% assuming a 15% takeout rate and no breakage.
My point was not that it is necessarily a good bet but certainly not the worst bet.
20 Jul 2011 at 12:55 pm | #
Andy, Kyle: Thanks for the wakeup call. Never considered breakage; shame on me. Good job both of you.
Goer: I hear you. Take of about 15% is about the max anyone should be willing to accept on any wager; the lower the better, of course.
Economics aside, hope the Spa and Del Mar do well. The industry needs them to showcase the game.
Hey, there’s been some chatter that opening day Friday could be in jeopardy because of the very high Heat Index. They have canceled due to heat in the past but never opening day. It might be just a bad racetrack rumor but you probably should keep your ear close to the ground.
JP
20 Jul 2011 at 01:10 pm | #
Any reason why NYRA doesn’t try offering a Pick 5?
I’m sure it would be quite popular with a 26% takeout!
Forecast high for Friday is 94 degrees.
Same for Saturday.
Very hot but in the past it had to be around 100 for them to cancel and it’s worth noting no East Coast tracks have cancelled this week due to the heat.
20 Jul 2011 at 01:15 pm | #
Andy,
In a perfectly efficient market you’d be right. In your 10 horse field there will be much more inefficiency, though. With the head to head wager little or none. One, because there is very little space and two because of the nature of the wager handicapping is significantly less relevant. That is one horse just has to finish in front of the other, whether that is first and second or last and next to last. I wish we had a computer guy to help us here to run some kind of simulation. Because I stand by my statement that this is the most highly priced wager offered. That is...the most costly to bankroll over a truly large sample.
Now, I know this is not a serious wager. That it’s being offered to newbies. But it really irks me that this is being touted. First by Joe Harper and now by members of the racing media. We shouldn’t screw new customers with such bad products. It’s just completely assinine. This is only going to handle....what...5k a day? How about reducing the show take to 10%? That would be good for newbies. Or if you wanted to do this why not make it a 3% take? It costs you virtually nothing, you probably get some very good publicity (still mostly undeserved)and if you have a conscience you can sleep better at night.
20 Jul 2011 at 01:53 pm | #
Kyle,
I think we are pretty much in agreement regarding the merits of the bet.
But in keeping with your disadvantage theory (one I agree with) you would be hard pressed to come up with a worse bet than show betting. The DT% can be computed easily by taking the stated takeout rate for any bet plus breakage and dividing it by the percentage of the pool bet on losers. So in your example for head-to-head at 10% it would be 10%/50% or a 20% disadvantage. For a show bet it wouldn’t be unusual to have only 30% losing tickets and with a takeout of 15% plus breakage you are looking at 50% +.
20 Jul 2011 at 02:13 pm | #
I just jumped the shark, math-wise. Anecdotely, I don’t make many show bets and never on a horse with more than 12% of the pool and with an angle that is extremely potent, but I do show a profit with it. Two things, that 50% disadvantage...do you not divide by three because of the three placings? And are you talking net pool pricing?
20 Jul 2011 at 02:49 pm | #
The math works the same regardless of the three placings. Net pool pricing requires much more info and math but the results would not be markedly different.
21 Jul 2011 at 06:30 am | #
Just so we’re clear, Kyle, there’s no advocating of the H-to-H bet here, just an acknowledgement that Del Mar is trying something new. We’ll see if their polling data reflects that reality.
Thanks all.
JP
21 Jul 2011 at 06:52 am | #
Understood John. I’d only quibble with your use of the word “trying.” To me the bet is a non-starter, a cynical sop to those calling for better pricing. It won’t handle (thankfully), and will fade into the pari-mutuel sunset forever the last Saturday of the meet.