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Illinois Derby Winner Done Talking: Bumper or Bumpee?


By Indulto

Saturday's million dollar Arkansas Derby and $750,000 Bluegrass Stakes offer two final chances for less well-known and/or accomplished horses to win their way into the Derby starting gate. The most likely to pull that off is Bodemeister, who will have to beat his already-qualified stablemate Secret Circle and virtual win-and-you're-in juvenile winner of the Delta Jackpot, Sabercat, at Oaklawn Park.

These events also present four opportunities to move up to second-tier almost-eligible--and potentially also-eligible horses--clustered below the charmed 16 having earnings of at least $380K. Drill and Prospective are both expected to try to move up against already-qualified Hansen and Dullahan at Keeneland.

Went the Day Well has not gone to the well enough times and consequently will have to run again to get his ticket punched. The Lexington Stakes the following weekend is reportedly under consideration for that purpose by his connections who brought last year’s Derby winner, Animal Kingdom. Their support for the synthetic-to-dirt sequence for surface success undoubtedly will stimulate speculative submersion in the pari-mutuel pools.

At this juncture, it appears that four horses among the 13 highest points-rated runners are unlikely to answer the starter's gun. They are Drill, Trinniberg, Majestic City and Optimizer. Conversely, four relatively low points-rated horses would be guaranteed a slot, if entered. These are Daddy Long Legs, Sabercat, Yang Tse Kiang and Daddy Knows Best.

Hero of Order would also fall into the latter category if his connections hadn’t forced him into supplemental status which likely will prevent him from competing despite earnings that would normally qualify a G2 Louisiana Derby winner. Indeed, his victims Rousing Sermon and Mark Valeski, as well as Risen Star hero but Florida Derby disappointment El Padrino,* must now run again to get in. Had any of them beaten the upsetter, that horse would have qualified on both points and earnings. Will there be any attempts to retrace Nehro’s steps to Kentucky last year?

G3 Illinois Derby winner Done Talking is on the cusp of eligibility. If the likely favorites at Oaklawn and Keeneland live up to their billing the Marylander will remain eligible assuming, of course, that none of the connections among the five highest-earning fillies contract a case of Derby fever. Although the highly points-rated Trinniberg has more earnings than Done Talking, he is unlikely to enter the Derby and hope on the trail in Baltimore.

The following horses whose names are bolded but not italicized below are reportedly preparing to compete in one more graded stakes prior to the Derby. Those whose names are bolded and italicized reflect earnings close enough to merit another pre-Derby start if still on the Derby Trail. Reveron’s placing in the Florida Derby and Optimizer’s second in the Rebel suggest they may be back for more in Arkansas.

Those whose point rankings are bolded are earnings-qualified on the basis of a single WPS finish in a graded stakes. Liaison’s race was a juvenile G1 at 8.5 furlongs.(The four top earnings-qualified females are also points-qualified).

Ed. Note: Further commentary related to this week’s eligibility changes follows each chart below. Additional details defining chart content appear at the bottom.

Alternative Rankings Comparison for Kentucky Derby Eligibility
Through Apr. 7th, 2012 *** EARNGS Seq ***
Horse
Earnings
Total
Earnings
Rank
BC
PTS
Rank
TR
PTS
Rank
TR
PTS
Top
# G S
WPS
1. Hansen
$1,400,000
1
12
16
10
3
2. Daddy Long Legs
$1,294,030
3
50*
51
7
1
3. Union Rags
$1,170,000
4
2
2
10
5
4. Creative Cause
$836,000
6
1
1
10
7
5. Wrote (IRE)
$756,630
7
19
21
10
2
6. Gemologist
$703,855
9
11
14
10
2
7. Take Charge Indy
$698,400
10
20
27
10
2
8. Hero of Order
$615,500
11
51*
52
7
1
9. Sabercat
$601,429
12
91*
94
4
1
10. I'll Have Another
$601,000
13
8
9
10
3
11. Daddy Nose Best
$545,558
14
34*
43
4
3
12. Secret Circle
$470,000
16
22
25
7
3
13. Yang Tse Kiang (FR)
$422,211
17
77*
72
5
1
14. Dullahan
$405,000
18
21
22
10
2
15. Liaison
$393,000
19
25*
32
10
1
16. Alpha
$380,000
20
13
11
8
3
17. Prospective
$365,452
22
36*
41
7
2
18. Trinniberg
$324,500
23
10
10
8
4
19. Done Talking
$311,000
24
92*
95
4
1
20. Drill
$300,000
26
6
6
10
3
21. Went the Day Well
$282,000
30
94*
97
4
1
22. Rousing Sermon
$270,000
31
30*
20
8
3
23. Mark Valeski
$260,000
35
41*
39
5
2
24. El Padrino
$250,000
36
37*
36
7
2
 
25. Excaper
$240,736
37
35*
35
8
2
26. Reveron
$220,000
39
43*
40
8
2
27. Optimizer
$181,375
47
23
17
6
3
28. Majestic City
$170,000
48
17
12
8
3
29. Currency Swap
$150,000
52
27*
34
10
1
30. O'Prado Again
$120,000
64
53*
54
7
1
31. Jack's in the Deck
$105,000
68
39*
38
7
2
32. State of Play
$100,000
73
44*
49
7
2
33. Vexor
$91,000
79
56*
57
7
1
34. Overdriven
$90,000
85
54*
55
7
1
35. Thunder Moccasin
$90,000
88
55*
56
7
1
,
My Miss Aurelia (f)
$1,350,000
2
3
4
10
3
Stephanie's Kitten (f)
$850,446
5
7
7
10
3
Grace Hall (f)
$740,000
8
4
3
10
4
Weemissfrankie (f)
$522,120
15
5
5
10
3
Believe You Can (f)
$369,734
21
31*
29
7
2
On Fire Baby (f)
$286,729
28
14
13
7
3
Killer Graces (f)
$284,200
29
18
23
10
3
Willa B Awesome (f)
$264,000
34
15
18
10
2
Reneesgotzip (f)
$200,000
42
9
8
8
3
Eden's Moon (f)
$186,000
44
16
15
10
2
 
Millionreasonswhy (f)
$145,000
53
24
26
7
3


The G1 victories of newly-eligible Gemologist and I’ll have another brought 2 more expected starters that would qualify on points as well as earnings to join Creative Cause, Union Rags, Hansen, Alpha, Take Charge Indy, Dullahan, Secret Circle, and Liaison for a total of 10.

Alternative Rankings Comparison for Kentucky Derby Eligibility,
Through Apr. 7th, 2012 *** BC PTS Seq ***
Horse
Earnings
Total
Earnings
Rank
BC
PTS
Rank
TR
PTS
Rank
TR
PTS
Top
BC
PTS
Total
Creative Cause
$836,000
6
1
1
10
40
Union Rags
$1,170,000
4
2
2
10
32
Drill
$300,000
26
6
6
10
22
I'll Have Another
$601,000
13
8
9
10
20
Trinniberg
$324,500
23
10
10
8
18
Gemologist
$703,855
9
11
14
10
16
Hansen
$1,400,000
1
12
16
10
16
Alpha
$380,000
20
13
11
8
16
Majestic City
$170,000
48
17
12
8
14
Wrote (IRE)
$756,630
7
19
21
10
12
Take Charge Indy
$698,400
10
20
27
10
12
Dullahan
$405,000
18
21
22
10
12
Secret Circle
$470,000
16
22
25
7
12
Optimizer
$181,375
47
23
17
6
12
Liaison
$393,000
19
25*
32
10
10
Currency Swap
$150,000
52
27*
34
10
10
Rousing Sermon
$270,000
31
30*
20
8
10
Daddy Nose Best
$545,558
14
34*
43
4
9
Excaper
$240,736
37
35*
35
8
8
Prospective
$365,452
22
36*
41
7
8
El Padrino
$250,000
36
37*
36
7
8
Jack's in the Deck
$105,000
68
39*
38
7
8
Mark Valeski
$260,000
35
41*
39
5
8
Reveron
$220,000
39
43*
40
8
7
 
State of Play
$100,000
73
44*
49
7
7
Daddy Long Legs
$1,294,030
3
50*
51
7
6
Hero of Order
$615,500
11
51*
52
7
6
O'Prado Again
$120,000
64
53*
54
7
6
Overdriven
$90,000
85
54*
55
7
6
Thunder Moccasin
$90,000
88
55*
56
7
6
Vexor
$91,000
79
56*
57
7
6
Yang Tse Kiang (FR)
$422,211
17
77*
72
5
4
Sabercat
$601,429
12
91*
94
4
4
Done Talking
$311,000
24
92*
95
4
4
Went the Day Well
$282,000
30
94*
97
4
4
 
My Miss Aurelia (f)
$1,350,000
2
3
4
10
26
Grace Hall (f)
$740,000
8
4
3
10
26
Weemissfrankie (f)
$522,120
15
5
5
10
24
Stephanie's Kitten (f)
$850,446
5
7
7
10
20
Reneesgotzip (f)
$200,000
42
9
8
8
18
On Fire Baby (f)
$286,729
28
14
13
7
16
Willa B Awesome (f)
$264,000
34
15
18
10
14
Eden's Moon (f)$186,0004416151014
Killer Graces (f)$284,2002918231013
Millionreasonswhy (f)$145,000532426711
       
Believe You Can (f)$369,7342131*29710


As of this past weekend, 17 horses would have qualified with double-digit point totals on BC-PTS -- and 21 on TR-PTS -- due to the latter’s higher value for second-place finishes. Gemologist ranks higher than Alpha and Majestic City on BC-PTS, but not on TR-PTS. Majestic City has been reported off the Derby Trail. The absence of Yang Tse Kiang and Excaper from the DRF’s top 50 list suggests they also are not expected to participate.

Alternative Rankings Comparison for Kentucky Derby Eligibility
Through Apr. 7th 2012 *** TR PTS Seq ***
Horse
Earnings
Total
Earnings
Rank
BC
PTS
Rank
TR
PTS
Rank
TR
PTS
Top
TR
PTS
Total
Creative Cause
$836,000
6
1
1
10
49
Union Rags
$1,170,000
4
2
2
10
38
Drill
$300,000
26
6
6
10
25
I'll Have Another
$601,000
13
8
9
10
22
Trinniberg
$324,500
23
10
10
8
21
Alpha
$380,000
20
13
11
8
20
Majestic City
$170,000
48
17
12
8
18
Gemologist
$703,855
9
11
14
10
17
Hansen
$1,400,000
1
12
16
10
16
Optimizer
$181,375
47
23
17
6
16
Rousing Sermon
$270,000
31
30*
20
8
14
Wrote (IRE)
$756,630
7
19
21
10
13
Dullahan
$405,000
18
21
22
10
13
Secret Circle
$470,000
16
22
25
7
13
Take Charge Indy
$698,400
10
20
27
10
12
Liaison
$393,000
19
25*
32
10
10
Currency Swap
$150,000
52
27*
34
10
10
Excaper
$240,736
37
35*
35
8
10
El Padrino
$250,000
36
37*
36
7
10
Jack's in the Deck
$105,000
68
39*
38
7
10
Mark Valeski
$260,000
35
41*
39
5
10
Reveron
$220,000
39
43*
40
8
9
Prospective
$365,452
22
36*
41
7
9
Daddy Nose Best
$545,558
14
34*
43
4
9
 
State of Play
$100,000
73
44*
49
7
8
Daddy Long Legs
$1,294,030
3
50*
51
7
7
Hero of Order
$615,500
11
51*
52
7
7
O'Prado Again
$120,000
64
53*
54
7
7
Overdriven
$90,000
85
54*
55
7
7
Thunder Moccasin
$90,000
88
55*
56
7
7
Vexor
$91,000
79
56*
57
7
7
Yang Tse Kiang (FR)
$422,211
17
77*
72
5
5
Sabercat
$601,429
12
91*
94
4
4
Done Talking
$311,000
24
92*
95
4
4
Went the Day Well
$282,000
30
94*
97
4
4
 
Grace Hall (f)
$740,000
8
4
3
10
30
My Miss Aurelia (f)
$1,350,000
2
3
4
10
27
Weemissfrankie (f)
$522,120
15
5
5
10
26
Stephanie's Kitten (f)
$850,446
5
7
7
10
23
Reneesgotzip (f)
$200,000
42
9
8
8
23
On Fire Baby (f)
$286,729
28
14
13
7
18
Eden's Moon (f)
$186,000
44
16
15
10
16
Willa B Awesome (f)
$264,000
34
15
18
10
14
Killer Graces (f)
$284,200
29
18
23
10
13
Millionreasonswhy (f)
$145,000
53
24
26
7
13
 
Believe You Can (f)
$369,734
21
31*
29
7
11


Cumulative earnings and finish point totals in Graded stakes as 2YOs and 3YOs through this past weekend are reflected in the charts above.

The top 24 earnings–qualified horses and the top 24 points-qualified horses are collectively represented in four sections of each preceding chart. 1) The top 24 earnings-qualified males of which 11 would not qualify on points.
2) The next 11 earnings-ranked males with highest point totals.
3) The top 10 earnings-qualified females of which 1 would not qualify on points.
4) The next 1 earnings-ranked female qualifying on points in the first chart and
the remaining 1 earnings-qualified female in the second and third charts.


Horses appear in earnings rank sequence in the first chart, in BC-PTS rank sequence in the second, and in TR-PTS rank sequence in the third.

In the first chart, the right hand column shows the number of graded stakes in which a horse finished at least third. That column shows the BC-PTS ratings total in the second chart, and the TR_PTS ratings total in the third.

Note that rankings for all three charts reflect eligibility regardless of gender, but are grouped within gender. In the second chart and third charts, 12 males and 9 females would qualify on both their BC-PTS total and their TR-PTS total.

In a point system used by the Breeders' Cup (BC-PTS) to measure the value of finish positions across graded levels, the place and show points at each grade level match the win and place points at the next lower level.

BC-PTSWPS
11064
2642
3421


In another point system (TR-PTS) defined at the “Thoroughbred Report” website (http://www.thoroughbredreport.com),finishing 2nd is also worth more than finishing 1st at the next lower grade level.

TR-PTSWPS
11086
2753
3421


Each TR-PTS value is unique and will used to indicate a horse’s top–rated finish in any graded stakes race as well as to determine a TR_PTS rating. It will also be used as the primary tie-breaker in ranking identical TR_PTS or BC-PTS ratings. The secondary tie-breaker will be the number of Win, Place, or Show (WPS) finishes in graded stakes.

This is the latest in a series that compares actual and proposed Kentucky Derby eligibility rankings as they emerge weekly while potential Derby runners race their way toward a berth in the starting gate. Currently, an entrant's eligibility is based on the total purse money it earned in graded stakes races prior to the Derby.

The idea of using cumulative points assigned to an entrant's achievements at the graded level in each of the same prep races is not a new one. However, we believe it is a novel approach to actually generate multiple rankings from carefully considered alternative point-weighted systems for continuous review by interested parties.
* correction made 041012

| Comments (5)




Do you have a take on the state of the game, a favorite race horse, trainer or jockey? Share your ideas. Show the racing industry and media the folly of their ways. The HRI Readers Blog: "When you lose it, Use it." Submit your blog to HRI Webmaster.
 
 

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