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Updated Alternative Rankings Comparison for Kentucky Derby Eligibility - April 2nd


This is the latest in a series that compares actual and proposed Kentucky Derby eligibility rankings as they emerge weekly while potential Derby runners race their way into contention for a berth in the starting gate. Currently, an entrant's eligibility is based on the total purse money it earned in graded stakes races prior to the Derby.

The idea of instead using cumulative points assigned to an entrant's placing at the grade level in each of the same races is not new. However, we believe it is a novel approach to actually generate multiple rankings from carefully considered alternative weighted point systems for continuous review by interested parties. More details regarding the motivation for this effort, and previous ones on which it is based, may be found at (http://www.horseraceinsider.com/The-HRI-Readers-Blog/02292012-the-kentucky-derby-grading-the-road-ahead)

To reiterate, we want to see the best 3YOs available competing for the Triple Crown, and the use of graded points is also likely to result in more competitive Derby prep fields as well as more contenders facing one another beforehand. Dissenting opinions are welcome as well as suggestions for improving ratings effectiveness.

By Indulto


In a point system used by the Breeders' Cup (BC-PTS) to measure the value of finish positions across graded levels, the place and show points at each grade level match the win and place points at the next lower level.

BC-PTS W P S
G11064
G2642
G3421


In another point system (TR-PTS) defined at the “Thoroughbred Report” website (http://www.thoroughbredreport.com), finishing 2nd is also worth more than finishing 1st at the next lower grade level.

TR-PTS W P S
G11086
G2753
G3421


Each TR-PTS value is unique and will used to indicate a horse’s top–rated finish in any graded stakes race as well as to determine a TR_PTS rating. It will also be used as the primary tie-breaker in ranking identical TR_PTS or BC-PTS ratings. The secondary tie-breaker will be the number of Win, Place, or Show (WPS) finishes in graded stakes.

Cumulative earnings and finish point totals in Graded stakes as 2YOs And 3YOs through this past weekend are reflected in the charts below.

The top 24 earnings–qualified horses and the top 24 points-qualified Horses are collectively represented in 4 sections of each chart below.

1) The top 24 earnings-qualified males of which 14 would not qualify on points.
2) The next 13 earnings-ranked males with highest point totals.
3) The top 8 earnings-qualified females of which 3 would not qualify on points.
4) The next 5 earnings ranked-females who would qualify on points.

Horses appear in earnings rank sequence in the first chart, in BC-PTS rank sequence in the second, and in TR-PTS sequence in the third.

In the first chart, the right hand column shows the number of graded stakes in which a horse finished at least third. That column shows the BC-PTS ratings total in the second chart, and the TR_PTS total in the third. Note that rankings for all three charts reflect eligibility regardless of gender, but are grouped within gender. In the second and third charts, 10 females would qualify on both their BC-PTS total and their TR-PTS total.

Indeed there were some dramatic changes to this week’s earnings chart with the results of three virtual WAYI events run this past weekend. Daddy Long Legs’ share of the $2M purse for the G2 UAE Derby propelled him into 2nd place behind leader, Hansen, and in front of the disappointing Union Rags who finished 3rd in the $1M G1 Florida Derby. His conqueror, Take Charge Indy, moved into 5th place just above Creative Cause and, below Wrote Whose UAE Derby finish move him up to 4th position.

Alternative Rankings Comparison for Kentucky Derby Eligibility
through Apr. 1st, 2012 *** EARNGS Seq ***
Horse Earnings
Total
Earnings
Rank
BC
PTS
Rank
TR
PTS
Rank
TR
PTS
Top
# G S
WPS
Hansen
$1400000
1
9
13
10
3
Daddy Long Legs
$1294030
3
45*
46
7
1
Union Rags
$1170000
4
2
2
10
5
Wrote (IRE)
$756630
6
20
29
10
1
Take Charge Indy
$698400
8
15
21
10
2
Creative Cause
$686000
9
1
1
10
6
Hero of Order
$615500
10
46*
47
7
1
Sabercat
$601429
11
86*
89
4
1
Daddy Nose Best
$545558
12
31*
40
4
3
Secret Circle
$470000
14
18
20
7
3
Yang Tse Kiang (FR)
$422211
15
72*
68
5
1
Dullahan
$405000
16
17
18
10
2
Liaison
$393000
17
21
30
10
1
Prospective
$365452
19
33*
38
7
2
Drill
$300000
20
6
6
10
3
Went the Day Well
$282000
22
88*
91
4
1
Rousing Sermon
$270000
23
26*
17
8
3
Mark Valeski
$260000
27
38*
36
5
2
El Padrino
$250000
28
34*
33
7
2
Excaper
$240736
29
32*
32
8
2
Reveron
$220000
31
40*
37
8
2
Basmati
$220000
31
135*
135
2
1
Isn't He Clever
$188000
33
136*
136
2
1
Optimizer
$181375
37
19
14
6
3
 
Alpha
$180000
38
24
23
8
2
Trinniberg
$174500
39
13
11
8
3
Majestic City
$170000
40
14
8
8
3
I'll Have Another
$151000
44
28*
24
7
2
Currency Swap
$150000
45
22
31
10
1
Brother Francis
$120000
53
55*
45
6
2
O'Prado Again
$120000
56
49*
50
7
1
Jack's in the Deck
$105000
61
36*
35
7
2
Gemologist
$103855
62
50*
51
7
1
Vexor
$91000
70
54*
55
7
1
Overdriven
$90000
74
51*
52
7
1
State of Play
$90000
77
52*
53
7
1
Thunder Moccasin
$90000
78
53*
54
7
1
 
My Miss Aurelia (f)
$1350000
2
3
4
10
3
Stephanie's Kitten (f)
$800446
5
8
10
10
2
Grace Hall (f)
$740000
7
4
3
10
4
Weemissfrankie (f)
$522120
13
5
5
10
3
Believe You Can (f)
$369734
18
27*
27
7
2
Now I Know (f)
$300000
20
87*
90
4
1
On Fire Baby (f)
$286729
21
10
9
7
3
Yara (f)
$269000
24
47*
48
7
1
 
Killer Graces (f)
$266200
25
16
22
10
2
Willa B Awesome (f)
$264000
26
11
15
10
2
Stopshoppingmaria (f)
$240000
30
23
19
8
2
Reneesgotzip (f)
$200000
32
7
7
8
3
Eden's Moon (f)
$186000
34
12
12
10
2


Upsetter (100-1) in the $1M G2 Louisiana Derby, Hero of Order, vaulted into 7th position over 2yo G3 virtual WAYI winner, Sabercat, and 3yo G3 virtual WAYI winner, Daddy Nose Best. 2nd place UAE Derby finisher, Yang Tse Kiang, moved into 11th positions below Secret Circle and above Dullahan. All the above-mentioned horses now have earnings of more than $400K and will not lose their eligibility even if some of the higher earning females were entered. 13th and 14th-positioned Liaison and Perspective also seem safe above $350K.

When Hero of order defeated Mark Valeski and Rousing Sermon, he left them at 18th and 17th along with Florida Derby 4th and 2nd-place finishers, El Padrino and Reveron (and a few others) above $200K. They follow recent Spiral winner, Went the Day Well, below Drill’s $300K. This group may have to run again to be sure of staying eligible. Most below them would need a win in of the upcoming Wood, Santa Anita Derby, Illinois Derby, Bluegrass, or Arkansas Derby, to get into the starting gate.

Alternative Rankings Comparison for Kentucky Derby Eligibility,
Through Apr. 1st, 2012 *** BC PTS Seq ***
Horse Earnings
Total
Earnings
Rank
BC
PTS
Rank
TR
PTS
Rank
TR
PTS
Top
BC
PTS
Total
Creative Cause
$686000
9
1
1
10
34
Union Rags
$1170000
4
2
2
10
32
Drill
$300000
20
6
6
10
22
Hansen
$1400000
1
9
13
10
16
Trinniberg
$174500
39
13
11
8
14
Majestic City
$170000
40
14
8
8
14
Take Charge Indy
$698400
8
15
21
10
12
Dullahan
$405000
16
17
18
10
12
Secret Circle
$470000
14
18
20
7
12
Optimizer
$181375
37
19
14
6
12
Wrote (IRE)
$756630
6
20
29
10
10
Liaison
$393000
17
21
30
10
10
Currency Swap
$150000
45
22
31
10
10
Alpha
$180000
38
24
23
8
10
Rousing Sermon
$270000
23
26*
17
8
10
I'll Have Another
$151000
44
28*
24
7
10
Daddy Nose Best
$545558
12
31*
40
4
9
Excaper
$240736
29
32*
32
8
8
Prospective
$365452
19
33*
38
7
8
El Padrino
$250000
28
34*
33
7
8
Jack's in the Deck
$105000
61
36*
35
7
8
Mark Valeski
$260000
27
38*
36
5
8
Reveron
$220000
31
40*
37
8
7
Daddy Long Legs
$1294030
3
45*
46
7
6
 
Hero of Order
$615500
10
46*
47
7
6
O'Prado Again
$120000
56
49*
50
7
6
Gemologist
$103855
62
50*
51
7
6
Overdriven
$90000
74
51*
52
7
6
State of Play
$90000
77
52*
53
7
6
Thunder Moccasin
$90000
78
53*
54
7
6
Vexor
$91000
70
54*
55
7
6
Brother Francis
$120000
53
55*
45
6
6
Yang Tse Kiang (FR)
$422211
15
72*
68
5
4
Sabercat
$601429
11
86*
89
4
4
Went the Day Well
$282000
22
88*
91
4
4
Basmati
$220000
31
135*
135
2
2
Isn't He Clever
$188000
33
136*
136
2
2
 
My Miss Aurelia (f)
$1350000
2
3
4
10
26
Grace Hall (f)
$740000
7
4
3
10
26
Weemissfrankie (f)
$522120
13
5
5
10
24
Reneesgotzip (f)
$200000
32
7
7
8
18
Stephanie's Kitten (f)
$800446
5
8
10
10
16
On Fire Baby (f)
$286729
21
10
9
7
16
Willa B Awesome (f)
$264000
26
11
15
10
14
Eden's Moon (f)
$186000
34
12
12
10
14
Killer Graces (f)
$266200
25
16
22
10
12
Stopshoppingmaria (f)
$240000
30
23
19
8
10
 
Believe You Can (f)
$369734
18
27*
27
7
10
Yara (f)
$269000
24
47*
48
7
6
Now I Know (f)
$300000
20
87*
90
4
4


Majestic City, Trinniberg, Optimizer, Currency Swap, Alpha, and I’ll Have Another would qualify on points, but not on earnings. Daddy Long Legs, Hero of Order, Yang Tse, Kiang, Sabercat, and Went the Day Well qualify on earnings, but not on points.

Alternative Rankings Comparison for Kentucky Derby Eligibility
Through Apr. 1st 2012 *** TR PTS Seq ***
Horse Earnings
Total
Earnings
Rank
BC
PTS
Rank
TR
PTS
Rank
TR
PTS
Top
TR
PTS
Total
Creative Cause
$686000
9
1
1
10
41
Union Rags
$1170000
4
2
2
10
38
Drill
$300000
20
6
6
10
25
Majestic City
$170000
40
14
8
8
18
Trinniberg
$174500
39
13
11
8
17
Hansen
$1400000
1
9
13
10
16
Optimizer
$181375
37
19
14
6
16
Rousing Sermon
$270000
23
26*
17
8
14
Dullahan
$405000
16
17
18
10
13
Secret Circle
$470000
14
18
20
7
13
Take Charge Indy
$698400
8
15
21
10
12
Alpha
$180000
38
24
23
8
12
I'll Have Another
$151000
44
28*
24
7
12
Wrote (IRE)
$756630
6
20
29
10
10
Liaison
$393000
17
21
30
10
10
Currency Swap
$150000
45
22
31
10
10
Excaper
$240736
29
32*
32
8
10
El Padrino
$250000
28
34*
33
7
10
Jack's in the Deck
$105000
61
36*
35
7
10
Mark Valeski
$260000
27
38*
36
5
10
Reveron
$220000
31
40*
37
8
9
Prospective
$365452
19
33*
38
7
9
Daddy Nose Best
$545558
12
31*
40
4
9
Brother Francis
$120000
53
55*
45
6
8
 
Daddy Long Legs
$1294030
3
45*
46
7
7
Hero of Order
$615500
10
46*
47
7
7
O'Prado Again
$120000
56
49*
50
7
7
Gemologist
$103855
62
50*
51
7
7
Overdriven
$90000
74
51*
52
7
7
State of Play
$90000
77
52*
53
7
7
Thunder Moccasin
$90000
78
53*
54
7
7
Vexor
$91000
70
54*
55
7
7
Yang Tse Kiang (FR)
$422211
15
72*
68
5
5
Sabercat
$601429
11
86*
89
4
4
Went the Day Well
$282000
22
88*
91
4
4
Basmati
$220000
31
135*
135
2
2
Isn't He Clever
$188000
33
136*
136
2
2
 
Grace Hall (f)
$740000
7
4
3
10
30
My Miss Aurelia (f)
$1350000
2
3
4
10
27
Weemissfrankie (f)
$522120
13
5
5
10
26
Reneesgotzip (f)
$200000
32
7
7
8
23
On Fire Baby (f)
$286729
21
10
9
7
18
Stephanie's Kitten (f)
$800446
5
8
10
10
17
Eden's Moon (f)
$186000
34
12
12
10
16
Willa B Awesome (f)
$264000
26
11
15
10
14
Stopshoppingmaria (f)
$240000
30
23
19
8
13
Killer Graces (f)
$266200
25
16
22
10
12
 
Believe You Can (f)
$369734
18
27*
27
7
11
Yara (f)
$269000
24
47*
48
7
7
Now I Know (f)
$300000
20
87*
90
4
4


Some might be concerned that three certain Derby qualifiers achieved their status on the basis of a single race, namely the $2M G2 AE Derby, but the $2M G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile also influenced the status of leaders Hansen, Union Rags, Creative Cause, Dullahan, and Take Charge Indy. Although they earned no purse money in that race, Daddy Long Legs, Drill, Optimizer, Alpha, and Prospective, also ran in the BC Juvenile.

My graded earnings totals sources are http://www.linemakers.net/ and http://www.drf.com/news/2012-kentucky-derby-contenders-ranked-graded-stakes-earnings The DRF list includes only 50 entries and On Fire Baby is the only filly included.

For the benefit of alert observers, the former has decided not to post UAE Derby earnings for Daddy Long Legs, Yang Tse Kiang, and Wrote, even though Wrote still appears on their list. I’ve noticed there is a discrepancy between the sources regarding Shared Property’s earnings. This week's charts did not appear to be affected either way.

| Comments (1)




Do you have a take on the state of the game, a favorite race horse, trainer or jockey? Share your ideas. Show the racing industry and media the folly of their ways. The HRI Readers Blog: "When you lose it, Use it." Submit your blog to HRI Webmaster.
 
 

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