The HRI Readers Blog

The racetrack is a treasure trove of stories, and many writers, insiders and fans relate to this world in literary fashion. Short stories cross the editorial desk at HRI from time to time, and so it is our intention to share the most entertaining of them with you.

Do you have a take on the state of the game, a favorite race horse, trainer or jockey? Share your ideas. Show the racing industry and media the folly of their ways. The HRI Readers Blog: "When you lose it, Use it." Submit your blog to HRI Webmaster.

Note: HRI holds the right to edit any material or not post a submission due to its content.

Contributors

Recent 'Readers Blogs'

Monthly Archives

Syndicate


UPDATED Alternative Rankings Comparison for Kentucky Derby Eligibility


This is the latest in a series that compares actual and proposed Kentucky Derby eligibility rankings as they emerge weekly while potential Derby runners race their way into contention for a berth in the starting gate. Currently, an entrant's eligibility is based on the total purse money it earned in graded stakes races prior to the Derby..

The idea of instead using cumulative points assigned to an entrant's placing at the grade level in each of the same races is not new. However, we believe it is a novel approach to actually generate multiple rankings from carefully considered alternative weighted point systems for continuous review by interested parties. More details regarding the motivation for this effort, and previous ones on which it is based, may be found at "The Kentucky Derby: Grading the Road Ahead"

To reiterate, we want to see the best 3YOs available competing for the Triple Crown, and the use of graded points is also likely to result in more competitive Derby prep fields as well as more contenders facing one another beforehand. Dissenting opinions are welcome as well as suggestions for improving ratings effectiveness.

By Indulto


In a point system used by the Breeders' Cup (BC-PTS) to measure the value of finish positions across graded levels, the place and show points at each grade level match the win and place points at the next lower level.

BC-PTS W P S
G11064
G2642
G3421


In another point system (TR-PTS) defined at the “Thoroughbred Report,” finishing 2nd is also worth more than finishing 1st at the next lower grade level.

TR-PTS W P S
G11086
G2753
G3421


Each TR-PTS value is unique and will used to indicate a horse’s top–rated finish in any graded stakes race as well as to determine a TR_PTS rating. It will also be used as the primary tie-breaker in ranking identical TR_PTS or BC-PTS ratings. The secondary tie-breaker will be the number of Win, Place, or Show (WPS) finishes in graded stakes.

Cumulative earnings and finish point totals in Graded stakes as 2YOs And 3YOs through this past weekend are reflected in the charts below.

The top 24 earnings–qualified horses and the top 24 points-qualified Horses are collectively represented in 4 sections of each chart below.
1) The top 24 earnings-qualified males of which 12 would not qualify on points.
2) The next 11 earnings-ranked males with highest point totals.
3) The top 9 earnings-qualified females of which 2 would not qualify on points.
4) The next 3 earnings ranked-females who would qualify on points.

Horses appear in earnings rank sequence in the first chart, in BC-PTS rank sequence in the second, and in TR-PTS sequence in the third.

In the first chart, the right hand column shows the number of graded stakes in which a horse finished at least third. That column shows the BC-PTS ratings total in the second chart, and the TR_PTS total in the third.

Note that rankings for all three charts reflect eligibility regardless of gender,but are grouped within gender. In the second chart, 10 females would qualify on their BC-PTS total whereas in the third chart only 9 would qualify on their TR-PTS total.

One highly ranked horse, Algorithms, is already off the Derby Trail.

Alternative Rankings Comparison for Kentucky Derby Eligibility
through Mar. 25, 2012 *** EARNGS Seq ***
Horse Earnings
Total
Earnings
Rank
BC
PTS
Rank
TR
PTS
Rank
TR
PTS
Top
# G S
W P S
Hansen $1,400,000
1
8
10
10
3
Union Rags $1,070,000
3
2
2
10
4
Creative Cause $686,000
5
1
1
10
6
Sabercat $601,429
6
77*
80
4
1
Daddy Nose Best $545,558
8
27*
33
4
3
Wrote(IRE) $540,000
9
16
25
10
1
Secret Circle $470,000
11
14
17
7
3
Dullahan $405,000
12
12
14
10
2
Liaison $375,000
13
17
26
10
1
Prospective $365,452
14
30*
32
7
2
Drill $300,000
15
5
5
10
3
Went the Day Well $282,000
18
79*
82
4
1
Excaper $240,736
21
28*
29
8
2
Algorithms (Off Trail) $240,000
22
80*
83
4
1
Basmati $220,000
24
128*
128
2
1
El Padrino $200,000
25
31*
30
7
2
Isn't He Clever $188,000
26
129*
129
2
1
Optimizer $181,375
28
15
11
6
3
Alpha $180,000
29
21
19
8
2
Trinniberg $174,500
30
23
16
8
2
Majestic City $170,000
31
10
7
8
3
Rousing Sermon $170,000
32
29*
23
8
2
Castaway $162,000
33
82*
85
4
1
Finale $153,345
35
93*
96
4
1
  
I'll Have Another $151,000
36
24
20
7
2
Currency Swap $150,000
37
18
27
10
1
Brother Francis $120,000
47
47*
38
6
2
O'Prado Again $120,000
50
41*
42
7
1
Jack's in the Deck $105,000
55
32*
31
7
2
Gemologist $103,855
56
42*
43
7
1
Vexor $91,000
63
46*
47
7
1
Overdriven $90,000
67
43*
44
7
1
State of Play $90,000
70
44*
45
7
1
Thunder Moccasin $90,000
71
45*
46
7
1
Power World $61,354
90
48*
49
5
2
  
My Miss Aurelia(f) $135,0000
2
3
3
10
3
Stephanie's Kitten(f) $800,446
4
7
9
10
2
Grace Hall(f) $560,000
7
6
6
10
3
Weemissfrankie(f) $522,120
10
4
4
10
3
Now I Know(f) $300,000
16
78*
81
4
1
On Fire Baby(f) $286,729
17
9
8
7
3
Killer Graces(f) $266,200
19
11
18
10
2
Yara(f) $260,000
20
38*
39
7
1
Stopshoppingmaria(f) $240,000
23
20
15
8
2
  
Eden's Moon(f) $150,000
38
19
28
10
1
Reneesgotzip(f) $140,000
39
13
12
8
2
Charm the Maker(f) $116,400
52
22
13
8
2


This week, Daddy Nose Best’s earnings from the Sunland Derby vaulted him into 5th place just behind Sabercat, the other G3, virtual Win-and-You’re-In (WAYI) race winner. Neither would qualify on points at this time.

Went the Day Well moved into 18th with his G3 Spiral Stakes win, but he would be 12th if the top 5 earning fillies aren’t taken into account. Prospective remains at 14th without being points-qualified. That leaves 8 other horses currently among the top 24 in earnings, but not points.

Alternative Rankings Comparison for Kentucky Derby Eligibility,
Through Mar. 25, 2012 *** BC PTS Seq ***
Horse Earnings
Total
Earnings
Rank
BC
PTS
Rank
TR
PTS
Rank
TR
PTS
Top
BC
PTS
Total
Creative Cause $686,000
5
1
1
10
34
Union Rags $1,070,000
3
2
2
10
28
Drill $300,000
15
5
5
10
22
Hansen $1,400,000
1
8
10
10
16
Majestic City $170,000
31
10
7
8
14
Dullahan $405,000
12
12
14
10
12
Secret Circle $470,000
11
14
17
7
12
Optimizer $181,375
28
15
11
6
12
Wrote(IRE) $540,000
9
16
25
10
10
Liaison $375,000
13
17
26
10
10
Currency Swap $150,000
37
18
27
10
10
Alpha $180,000
29
21
19
8
10
Trinniberg $174,500
30
23
16
8
10
I'll Have Another $151,000
36
24
20
7
10
Daddy Nose Best $545,558
8
27*
33
4
9
Excaper $240,736
21
28*
29
8
8
Rousing Sermon $170,000
32
29*
23
8
8
Prospective $365,452
14
30*
32
7
8
El Padrino $200,000
25
31*
30
7
8
Jack's in the Deck $105,000
55
32*
31
7
8
O'Prado Again $120,000
50
41*
42
7
6
Gemologist $103,855
56
42*
43
7
6
Overdriven $90,000
67
43*
44
7
6
State of Play $90,000
70
44*
45
7
6
   
Thunder Moccasin $90,000
71
45*
46
7
6
Vexor $91,000
63
46*
47
7
6
Brother Francis $120,000
47
47*
38
6
6
Power World $61,354
90
48*
49
5
6
Sabercat $601,429
6
77*
80
4
4
Went the Day Well $282,000
18
79*
82
4
4
Algorithms (Off Trail) $240,000
22
80*
83
4
4
Castaway $162,000
33
82*
85
4
4
Finale $153,345
35
93*
96
4
4
Basmati $220,000
24
128*
128
2
2
Isn't He Clever $188,000
26
129*
129
2
2
   
My Miss Aurelia(f) $135,0000
2
3
3
10
26
Weemissfrankie(f) $522,120
10
4
4
10
24
Grace Hall(f) $560,000
7
6
6
10
20
Stephanie's Kitten(f) $800,446
4
7
9
10
16
On Fire Baby(f) $286,729
17
9
8
7
16
Killer Graces(f) $266,200
19
11
18
10
12
Reneesgotzip(f) $140,000
39
13
12
8
12
Eden's Moon(f) $150,000
38
19
28
10
10
Stopshoppingmaria(f) $240,000
23
20
15
8
10
Charm the Maker(f) $116,400
52
22
13
8
10
   
Yara(f) $260,000
20
38*
39
7
6
Now I Know(f) $300,000
16
78*
81
4
4


Creative Cause, Union Rags, Drill, Optimizer, Dulanan, and Secret Circle currently qualify under all rankings. Wrote and Liaison qualify on earnings and BC-PTS only. Majestic City and Optimizer qualify on points, but not earnings.

Alternative Rankings Comparison for Kentucky Derby Eligibility
Through Mar. 25 201 *** TR PTS Seq ***
Horse Earnings
Total
Earnings
Rank
BC
PTS
Rank
TR
PTS
Rank
TR
PTS
Top
TR
PTS
Total
Creative Cause $686,000
5
1
1
10
41
Union Rags $1,070,000
3
2
2
10
32
Drill $300,000
15
5
5
10
25
Majestic City $170,000
31
10
7
8
18
Hansen $1,400,000
1
8
10
10
16
Optimizer $181,375
28
15
11
6
16
Dullahan $405,000
12
12
14
10
13
Trinniberg $174,500
30
23
16
8
13
Secret Circle $470,000
11
14
17
7
13
Alpha $180,000
29
21
19
8
12
I'll Have Another $151,000
36
24
20
7
12
Rousing Sermon $170,000
32
29*
23
8
11
Wrote(IRE) $540,000
9
16
25
10
10
Liaison $375,000
13
17
26
10
10
Currency Swap $150,000
37
18
27
10
10
Excaper $240,736
21
28*
29
8
10
El Padrino $200,000
25
31*
30
7
10
Jack's in the Deck $105,000
55
32*
31
7
10
Prospective $365,452
14
30*
32
7
9
Daddy Nose Best $545,558
8
27*
33
4
9
Brother Francis $120,000
47
47*
38
6
8
O'Prado Again $120,000
50
41*
42
7
7
Gemologist $103,855
56
42*
43
7
7
Overdriven $90,000
67
43*
44
7
7
  
State of Play $90,000
70
44*
45
7
7
Thunder Moccasin $90,000
71
45*
46
7
7
Vexor $91,000
63
46*
47
7
7
Power World $61,354
90
48*
49
5
7
Sabercat $601,429
6
77*
80
4
4
Went the Day Well $282,000
18
79*
82
4
4
Algorithms (off Trail) $240,000
22
80*
83
4
4
Castaway $162,000
33
82*
85
4
4
Finale $153,345
35
93*
96
4
4
Basmati $220,000
24
128*
128
2
2
Isn't He Clever $188,000
26
129*
129
2
2
  
My Miss Aurelia(f) $1,350,000
2
3
3
10
27
Weemissfrankie(f) $522,120
10
4
4
10
26
Grace Hall(f) $560,000
7
6
6
10
23
On Fire Baby(f) $286,729
17
9
8
7
18
Stephanie's Kitten(f) $800,446
4
7
9
10
17
Reneesgotzip(f) $140,000
39
13
12
8
15
Charm the Maker(f) $116,400
52
22
13
8
14
Stopshoppingmaria(f) $240,000
23
20
15
8
13
Killer Graces(f) $266,200
19
11
18
10
12
  
Eden's Moon(f) $150,000
38
19
28
10
10
Yara(f) $260,000
20
38*
39
7
7
Now I Know(f) $300,000
16
78*
81
4
4


Several virtual WAYI races of 9 furlongs or more remain on the Derby Trail: 1. the Florida Derby, 2. the UAE Derby, 3. the Louisiana Derby, 4. the Wood Memorial, 5. the Santa Anita Derby, 6. the Bluegrass, 7. the Arkansas Derby, and, possibly, 8. the Illinois Derby.

Each time one of them is won by a top-ranked contender, the points ranked systems should gain effectiveness in identifying the more competitive horses among those that remain.

Three shorter graded stakes with $200,000 purses follow the above for possible last-minute adjustments to the Derby field.

See you next week with the results of the first three remaining virtual WAYI events and, possibly, some dramatic chart updates.

| Comments (5)




Do you have a take on the state of the game, a favorite race horse, trainer or jockey? Share your ideas. Show the racing industry and media the folly of their ways. The HRI Readers Blog: "When you lose it, Use it." Submit your blog to HRI Webmaster.
 
 

Page 1 of 1 pages