By Cary Fotias,
On Saturday, over 100,000 racing fans will gather at majestic Belmont Park as I’ll Have Another seeks to become the first Triple Crown winner in 34 years. I have seen every Belmont Stakes since I moved to New York in 1986 - from Woody’s fifth straight with Danzig Connection through Ruler on Ice. In that span, nine horses have taken aim at the Triple Crown, only to come up short.
Believe me when I tell you; there is no sound in all the world of sports like the “New York roar” that builds to a climax as a potential Triple Crown winner enters the final furlongs.
Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, and Smarty Jones – some really good horses have failed the Test of the Champion. Will I’ll Have Another become our twelfth Triple Crown winner?
I guess we’ll have to see what Dullahan, Union Rags, Paynter and Street Life have to say about that. So, get out to Big Sandy on Saturday and see some history.
With all the excitement attendant to the Triple Crown generating the headlines, there are ominous signs for Thoroughbred racing that continue to lurk “below the fold”.
Item: In 2004, I was part of the NTRA Players Panel at the Handicapping Expo in Las Vegas that made over 60 recommendations (one of which was implemented) to the industry to improve the game.
Number one on my list was to lower the takeout dramatically but, unfortunately, this has not happened. The only meaningful takeout reductions have been in Pick-3, Pick-4 and Pick-5 pools.
Reducing the takeout in these pools does little to increase “churn” as the usually large payoffs are shared by only a few bettors who are unlikely to quickly plow back their profits.
It would be much better to lower the take on WinPlaceShow. Almost everyone would benefit from this, including the tracks. Churn would increase significantly and casual players would get more “value” for their entertainment dollar.
It’s so simple an economic concept that it probably has no chance of happening considering the panjandrums that control the game.
Item: In the last few years, total handle on thoroughbred racing in the US has dwindled to $10.6 billion from $15 billion. That’s a 30% decline in just a few years. As the powers that be continue to fight for a bigger piece of a shrinking pie, they should be looking to get a smaller piece of a much, much bigger pie.
The industry has taken the greatest gambling game ever invented and trashed it. It is a testament to “what the outside of a horse does to the inside of a man” that the game has survived the egregious and almost unconscionable decisions of its management.
Item: The aforementioned decline in handle has led to a severe liquidity crisis in the wagering pools. With money spread across so many exotic pools in addition to WPS, the effects of the overall decline are exacerbated. To wit:
In Saturday’s first race at Monmouth Park, widely regarded as a top-shelf venue, My Place Anytime was 3/5 entering the gate. He won, paying $2.60. In the second race at Monmouth on Sunday, Quiet Tiara was 8/5 entering the gate and won, returning $3.40.
There’s nothing fishy going on here. It’s just that a few big bettors, or one really big one, can cause these dramatic changes due to the paucity of money in the win pools.
The solution is simple: LESS IS MORE.
We need a lot less racing, and perhaps fewer betting options on every race, so that pools can attract large bettors with differing opinions. If we ran half the dates we do now, I guarantee overall handle would improve. Why?
Because people will bet more than twice as much on big, competitive fields than they will on a steady diet of five and six horse affairs you always see in Northern California, and recently in Southern California and even Churchill Downs.
Item: Preposterous is the only word that leaps to mind when describing Churchill Downs’ handling of the “late odds drop” phenomenon. Although the industry promised years ago that odds cycling would be reduced to 15 seconds, it has not happened. How has Churchill handled it?
The myopic managers at CDI have decided that rather invest money to help keep the industry’s promise, they simply “blank out the late odds” until they are final.
That way, the supposition goes, no one can complain about late odds drops during the running of the race. So, when you watch races from Arlington, Calder and Churchill, you won’t see odds until mid-race.
I have recommended for years that all final WPS pools and exacta payoff grids should be posted on the tracks’ onsite monitors and websites before the race goes off. That would insure the integrity of the pools.
Players would adjust to the earlier cutoff times and reasonable bettors would consider it more than a fair tradeoff. Time has come for the industry to respect the intelligence of its serious fans and players.
Item: After all the carry-ons at NYRA, the new board will consist of appointments from Gov. Andrew Cuomo and the NYRA, including non-voting members for owners and breeders.
Has anyone ever considered the horseplayers? Hello? It disgusts me that the most vital constituency in the game is consistently given such short shrift.
Item: The New York State Racing and Wagering Board seems to just make up the rules as it chooses. I wouldn’t have a problem with the detention barn for the Belmont Stakes horses if it was also used for $20,000 maiden claimers.
I want to be betting on a “fair” game all the time. The money is just as green in the first race on Wednesday as it is for the Belmont.
And, if you can change the rules on a whim, why not allow I’ll Have Another to race with the nasal strip that is permitted in every other US racing jurisdiction? Lasix is OK, but not a nasal strip? Let’s get real.
Item: Dateline - North Randall, Ohio – Check out this beauty from Daily Racing Form. (Talk about manipulating the pools: I guess the perpetrators inflated the price of the favorite so they could collect more from bookmakers than they invested to drive up the price at the track).
“The intentions of the bettor or bettors who targeted Monday's (May 21) fifth race on Thistledown in Cleveland for $90,000 in late win bets remained unknown on Wednesday, according to officials who are familiar with the investigation into the wagers.
“Investigators have failed to determine how the bettor or bettors figured they would profit from the $15,000 win bets, which were placed on every other horse in the seven-horse maiden race but the 1-5 favorite within 90 seconds of the race going off. The bets drove the odds on the favorite up to 14-1 before a robotic wagering program targeted the favorite with an $8,359 win bet placed just before the race went off.
“The horse who had been the favorite, Eye Look the Part, won the six-furlong maiden race by 16 1/2 lengths. He paid $12.80.”
Sixteen and-a-half lengths! I guess they weren’t taking any chances. These guys better be careful. Bookies don’t take kindly to this type of activity. Baseball bats, anyone?
Even worse than this type of coup is the fact that most tracks allow the cancellation of large bets. This creates a “license to steal” for larcenous operators who pound a horse early (getting others off the horse due to deflated odds) and then pull money out at the last second to inflate the price. This is beyond chicanery and tracks should be very vigilant about this. But sadly, they are not.
Item: The Thoroughbred Owners of California (TOC) have shelved a betting exchange trial for at least a year. That’s right, these fools are fine with 5-horse fields where it’s easy to collect purse money but refuse to allow Betfair to begin an experiment with exchange betting in the U.S.
Betfair purchased Hollywood Park and TVG (Television Games Network) with the obvious intention of introducing exchange betting. Exchange betting has proven wildly successful in Europe.
As win betting accounts for only 20% of US handle, why not give it a try here? The game is dying and a betting exchange might just revitalize the industry by attracting the younger demographic it is constantly seeking.
In addition, a betting exchange solves pool manipulation issues--if you open a horse at 1/9, everyone will short it--and also solves the late odds drop problem. On the exchange, the price you “deal at” is locked in.
Winning at horseracing is all about getting the right price. Serious players only bet when they are “getting the best of it”. But when odds fluctuate so dramatically, except in the largest of pools, a very tough game becomes almost impossible to beat. That’s the point serious players consider fleeing to the safety of 10-year Treasuries yielding 1.47%.
There it is race fans; some of the good, the bad, and the ugly. And, so, as we contemplate and anticipate possibly being a witness to history late Saturday afternoon at Belmont Park, let's hope that more, well informed consideration is given to what is happening on too many other days of the year in Thoroughbred racing, the greatest game played outdoors.
Cary Fotias and John Pricci together will be co-hosting two Belmont Stakes e-seminars on Thursday and Friday nights this week. Please see SaratogaBets.com (Thursday presentation) and Equiform.com (Friday) for details
05 Jun 2012 at 07:43 am | #
I couldn’t agree more on all of these points except exchange wagering. I see it as just another layer of complexity that will cannibalize existing pools. In addition, it’s another chance to stiff favorites such as I recently saw at Emerald Downs and Delta Downs, not that I would ever bet at those tracks. However, this is a well-written article that offers great advice on all of racing’s major issues. If most of them were implemented, I’d throw in the towel on exchange wagering.
05 Jun 2012 at 12:24 pm | #
Hi Greywoof --
Thanks..
If all of my ideas were implemented, the pools would be overflowing with dollars and, as you suggest, there would be little need for exchange betting.
Still, I think exchange betting is a worthy pursuit as it would likely attract more “tech-savvy” younger people to our great game.
As for “fixing” races and “stiffing” favorites, that will always occur to some extent. But the truth is that a betting exchange is much more likely to uncover suspicious behavior/betting patterns than any other entity (just like the books in Vegas in regards to sports betting).
A dramatic lowering of the take would not only improve the player’s lot dramatically, but also provide excess profits to the industry that would enable it to fund the other measures I recommend. Problem is, it might take a year or two for the results to manifest.
It’s such a simple concept, but very difficult to sell to state bureaucrats and politicians who are only focused on short-term budget shortfalls and/or who failed Economics 101.
Let’s start runiing this game like a business, instead of a public utility.
05 Jun 2012 at 03:09 pm | #
Dear Mr. Fotias:
Have no doubt that the 60 recommendations you proposed, if implemented would have brought the game back to its former glory. The problem is that the people in charge of such things are only interested in the IMMEDIATE improvement of the bottom line, and none have the power or the guts to be the first to step out in faith against the tide of stupidity, and the worst of these are the dirty SOBs at the NYRA. Go ahead, ban me from “Pricci,” it would be an honor; somebody has to say it.
Everyone talks about “too much racing,” but I can’t disagree with you more; that is, that there is too much racing. Initially, I do agree, that racing has to be cut back, for the reasons you set forth, but only because of the declines across the board, due to so many reasons, including, most importantly, the proliferation of out-of-pool off shore gambling pools. Query, you state that in the last few years total handle has declined from 10.6 billion from 15 billion pisquagis. I’m no genius, and never went to the Wharton School, but how much do you believe we are losing to these off-shore out-of-pool entities? The money is there, it is being bet; there is no doubt in my mind, but it amazes me that nobody talks about it. These off-shore entities make offers that “you can’t refuse,” to coin a phrase (sorry Godfather), and just like persons who say they don’t admit to cheating on their wives, how many so called “pari-mutuel patriots” are using these off-shore entities?
Instead of the IRS and the United States government harassing gamblers to steal a portion of any score they might make, they should be enforcing any laws against out-of-pool betting on horse races, which is destroying the industry, and implement stricter laws that are enforced. It is obvious to this low-life, degenerate, drunken, railbird, that the reason they do not, is that they must have a vested interest in such entities, and are making millions.
It is obvious that you care deeply for the game, the Sport of Kings, and the animals, but we are pissing into the wind against these [expletive deleted]; they don’t care. They want to steal as much as they can, as fast as they can; and the common man is the one they are stealing from.
The common man, who is best served by fractional betting, cannot do so at most of the major venues due to the restraint of trade they continue to demand. The big gamblers are not playing $.50 triples, Pick 3s and Pick 4s, so why, oh why, would you not implement these bets across the board, so that you can pick up as much money as possible from the little man? It has been proven, by every study I’ve seen, that handle increases, not decreases when this is done. What is their agenda? Are they stupid? Are they arrogant? Are they too cheap to change their computer programs so that this will be possible? What the *%&)!!!!!!
I must say that due to the efforts of such men as yourself, John Pricci, and other honest persons, who are not afraid to speak the truth, and are able to do so, as they have no financial ties that would preclude them from doing so, things are changing. I noticed quite a few tracks are beginning to take fractional betting, including Woodbine, which now offers $.20 pick 3s, and they are thriving, and they now take $1.00 wps, which they did not do until recently.
Limiting racing is a 2-edged sword, and is dangerous. We do not want to further stop investors from getting into the game, purses need to be augmented, and fewer venues will mean more difficulty for placing horses, and may do just the opposite of what you propose.
I don’t claim to have all the answers, but free trade is the first step towards success.
I’ve said enough, in a drunken stupor of rage.
It is indeed frustrating to love a game so much, and to see it going down the toilet, and at the mercy of ignorant bean counters, with no knowledge of, or love of, the horses.
TTT
05 Jun 2012 at 04:25 pm | #
T,
Here’s some A-B-C type information. Thanks for the compliment re: my “honesty,” I think.
But it does come at a price; it’s called advertising revenue. An example.
Dating back to when Vic Zast and Bill Christine were staffers here, the early days, when racing content on the Internet was in its infant stages, the quality was such apparently that aggregators such as Equidaily and Paulick Report--I realize the latter produces its own content--picked up HRI stories just about every other day. This no longer happens.
Zast and Christine are no longer at HRI, due to a lack of advertising support and apparently I’ve lost my touch for the craft. HRI stories, even when our storylines occasionally beat other media on the same topic, many times sharing the same point of view.
My theory is that the aggregators are getting industry support and are afraid to lose it, reticent to re-purpose disparate, politically incorrect opinions. And that’s what they are--- opinions, the foundation of the sport since the first time one man bet another man that his horse was faster.
HRI has its industry advertisers and are proud to be associated with them. Xpressbet has been with us virtually since Day One. Gulfstream Park has been a loyal supporter the last two years; Suffolk Downs even longer. Monmouth Park, despite its economic issues, advertises whenever it can. Calder Race Course, despite our critcisms of the CDI mother ship, came on board without being contacted by Webmaster Mark. There has been support from oversees, all coming voluntarily.
And, most recently, SaratogaBets.com came on board despite the presence of a competitor and also have re-purposed some of our content.
I am very grateful to all, including those I might have forgotten to mention. But the one thing I’m MOST grateful for is the fact that not one ever objected to what we’ve written to the point of writing us off. We’ve gotten an earful on occasion but that’s as far as it has gotten. They realize I have a job to do and a responsibility to racing’s public
But don’t ever think, Ted, the the PURSUIT of truth doesn’t have its price. I would love to have my guys back but simply can’t afford to pay them. I’m indebted to recent contributors, especially Brendan O’Meara, who has given us a fresh and amusing perspective on all things racing.
I don’t have all the answers either, but I’ll keep looking, that I promise you and all our readers-- and let the chips fall. I try to take a macro view. I owe you, and the game, that much.
JP
Now where were we…
05 Jun 2012 at 07:19 pm | #
Cary,
Nice State of the Union Address. Are you available for commissioner of USA horseracing? Doesn’t pay anything, but we need one desperately.
“What the outside of a horse does to the inside of a man and woman” is why we all love this game, and why the game is bullet proof. No matter how bad the industry treats the most important sector, the horseplayers. Unless all horseplayers unite in a strike, nothing will change.
The first 2 legs of the Triple Crown have brought record attendance and handle. The final leg with some weather luck will follow suit. This on the heels of increased handle for Met Mile weekend at Belmont. The Saratoga meet figures to be strong with plenty of stars and increased purses from slots. That’s the positives.
And the beatdown goes on…
A hurricane blows, brings a hard rain
When the blue sky breaks, feels like the world’s gonna change
We’ll start caring for each other like Jesus said that we might
I’m a Jack of all trades, we’ll be alright
The banker man grows fatter, the working man grows thin
It’s all happened before and it’ll happen again
It’ll happen again, they’ll bet your life
I’m a Jack of all trades and, darling, we’ll be alright
Now sometimes tomorrow comes soaked in treasure and blood
Here we stood the drought, now we’ll stand the flood
There’s a new world coming, I can see the light
I’m a Jack of all trades, we’ll be alright…
05 Jun 2012 at 09:09 pm | #
Cat,
You have tickets for The Boss at Vernon Downs Aug. 29? That’s not Travers night, is it?
Anyway, the summer tour is rumored to be more free wheeling; get the cardboard sign ready.
I’ve got a fave. Takes about two minutes to play. I love it because in its way, it’s a horseplayer’s lament.
“When I get home, I’m gonna’ throw that money on the bed
This time she’ll see I wasn’t just talkin’
And I’m gonna’ go out walkin
Hey, Cat, can you catch us a ride?”