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Earnings vs Points—2012 Derby Pre-race


By Indulto

Neither the Lexington nor the Jerome produced a new Derby qualifier on either earnings or points. However, including a previously unprocessed juvenile Group 2 turf victory by Daddy Long Legs now gives him an additional 6 points on BC-PTS and 7 on TR-PTS, moving him into 15th position on points to qualify him on both earnings and points. (BC-PTS and TR-PTS point systems are defined at bottom.)

Unlike the 2011 Derby field, which many felt was unusually weak, this year’s group appears poised to accomplish more -- not only in contesting the Triple Crown Legs, but in the summer and fall events as well. We’ll have to see if the synthetic-to-dirt models implemented by trainers Motion and O’Brien will replace the more traditional ones of Baffert and Pletcher.

Graham Motion is attempting to repeat Animal Kingdom's back-to-back victories in the Spira and KY Derby with Went the Day Well. Aiden O'Brien is trying to improve on Master of Hound's UAE Derby/KY Derby parlay with Daddy Long Legs. Master of Hounds followed his second in Dubai with a fifth in Louisville.. Daddy Long Legs won his UAE Derby, and my "Spidey Sense" tells me his trainer is getting into a "zone" at Churchill Downs having succeeded with last year's Breeders' Cup Turf victor at that same venue.

Watching replays of Bodemeister’s AK Derby brings Bellamy Road’s Wood Memorial to mind, and doesn’t give me the confidence I felt in Barbaro and Big Brown.

For 2012, the top 13 remaining points-qualified are also earnings-qualified. The top 9 of these are bolded. Doubtful starters are italicized.

15 of the top 24 earners are ranked higher on earnings than points.

Alternative Rankings Comparison for Kentucky Derby Eligibility
Through Apr. 21st, 2012 *** EARNGS Seq ***
Horse
Earnings
Total
Earnings
Rank
BC
PTS
Rank
TR
PTS
Rank
TR
PTS
Top
# G S
WPS
1.Hansen $1,550,000
1
8
7
10
4
2.Daddy Long Legs$1,294,030
3
24
24
7
2
3.Union Rags $1,170,000
4
2
2
10
5
4.Dullahan $855,000
5
6
8
10
3
5.Creative Cause $836,000
7
1
1
10
7
6.Wrote (IRE)$756,630
8
22
25
10
2
7.Gemologist$703,855
10
14
17
10
2
8.Sabercat$701,429
11
43*
42
6
2
9.Take Charge Indy$698,400
12
23
29
10
2
10.Secret Circle$670,000
13
12
12
8
4
11.Bodemeister$660,000
14
17
20
10
2
12.Hero of Order$617,375
15
54*
55
7
1
13.I'll Have Another$601,000
16
10
11
10
3
14.Daddy Nose Best$545,558
17
37*
47
4
3
15.Yang Tse Kiang (FR)$422,211
19
85*
80
5
1
16.Liaison$393,000
20
27*
35
10
1
17.Alpha$380,000
21
15
14
8
3
18.Prospective$367,327
23
39*
45
7
2
19.Trinniberg$324,500
24
13
13
8
4
20.Done Talking$311,000
25
100*
103
4
1
21.Drill$300,000
27
7
6
10
3
22.Went the Day Well$282,000
31
102*
105
4
1
23.Rousing Sermon$270,000
32
32*
23
8
3
24.Mark Valeski$260,000
36
45*
43
5
2
  
25.El Padrino$250,000
37
40*
39
7
2
26.Excaper$240,736
38
38*
38
8
2
27.Reveron$220,000
40
47*
44
8
2
28.Optimizer$184,708
47
25*
19
6
3
29.Majestic City$170,000
51
20
15
8
3
30.Currency Swap$150,000
55
29*
37
10
1
31.The Lumber Guy$150,000
56
58*
59
7
1
32.O'Prado Again$120,000
68
57*
58
7
1
33.Jack's in the Deck$105,000
76
42*
41
7
2
34.State of Play$100,000
82
48*
53
7
2
  
1.My Miss Aurelia (f)$1,350,000
2
3
4
10
3
2.Stephanie's Kitten (f)$850,446
6
9
9
10
3
3.Grace Hall (f)$740,000
9
4
3
10
4
4.Weemissfrankie (f)$522,120
18
5
5
10
3
5.Believe You Can (f)$369,734
22
33*
32
7
2
  
6.On Fire Baby (f)$286,729
29
16
16
7
3
7.Killer Graces (f)$284,200
30
21
26
10
3
8.Willa B Awesome (f)$264,000
35
18
21
10
2
9.Reneesgotzip (f)$200,000
43
11
10
8
3
10.Eden's Moon (f)$186,000
46
19
18
10
2


Alternative Rankings Comparison for Kentucky Derby Eligibility,
Through Apr. 21st, 2012 *** BC PTS Seq ***
Horse
Earnings
Total
Earnings
Rank
BC
PTS
Rank
TR
PTS
Rank
TR
PTS
Top
BC
PTS
Total
1.Creative Cause $836,000
7
1
1
10
40
2.Union Rags $1,170,000
4
2
2
10
32
3.Dullahan $855,000
5
6
8
10
22
4.Drill$300,000
27
7
6
10
22
5.Hansen$1,550,000
1
8
7
10
22
6.I'll Have Another$601,000
16
10
11
10
20
7.Secret Circle$670,000
13
12
12
8
18
8.Trinniberg$324,500
24
13
13
8
18
9.Gemologist$703,855
10
14
17
10
16
10.Alpha$380,000
21
15
14
8
16
11.Bodemeister$660,000
14
17
20
10
14
12.Majestic City$170,000
51
20
15
8
14
13.Wrote (IRE)$756,630
8
22
25
10
12
14.Take Charge Indy$698,400
12
23
29
10
12
15.Daddy Long Legs$1,294,030
3
24
24
7
12
16.Optimizer$184,708
47
25*
19
6
12
17.Liaison$393,000
20
27*
35
10
10
18.Currency Swap$150,000
55
29*
37
10
10
19.Rousing Sermon$270,000
32
32*
23
8
10
20.Daddy Nose Best$545,558
17
37*
47
4
9
21.Excaper$240,736
38
38*
38
8
8
22.Prospective$367,327
23
39*
45
7
8
23.El Padrino$250,000
37
40*
39
7
8
24.Jack's in the Deck$105,000
76
42*
41
7
8
  
25.Sabercat$701,429
11
43*
42
6
8
26.Mark Valeski$260,000
36
45*
43
5
8
27.Reveron$220,000
40
47*
44
8
7
28.State of Play$100,000
82
48*
53
7
7
29.Hero of Order$617,375
15
54*
55
7
6
30.O'Prado Again$120,000
68
57*
58
7
6
31.The Lumber Guy$150,000
56
58*
59
7
6
32.Yang Tse Kiang (FR)$422,211
19
85*
80
5
4
33.Done Talking$311,000
25
100*
103
4
4
34.Went the Day Well$282,000
31
102*
105
4
4
  
1.My Miss Aurelia (f)$1,350,000
2
3
4
10
26
2.Grace Hall (f)$740,000
9
4
3
10
26
3.Weemissfrankie (f)$522,120
18
5
5
10
24
4.Stephanie's Kitten (f)$850,446
6
9
9
10
20
5.Reneesgotzip (f)$200,000
43
11
10
8
18
6.On Fire Baby (f)$286,729
29
16
16
7
16
7.Willa B Awesome (f)$264,000
35
18
21
10
14
8.Eden's Moon (f)$186,000
46
19
18
10
14
9.Killer Graces (f)$284,200
30
21
26
10
13
  
10.Believe You Can (f)$369,734
22
33*
32
7
10


Alternative Rankings Comparison for Kentucky Derby Eligibility
Through Apr. 21st 2012 *** TR PTS Seq ***
Horse
Earnings
Total
Earnings
Rank
BC
PTS
Rank
TR
PTS
Rank
TR
PTS
Top
TR
PTS
Total
1.Creative Cause $836,000
7
1
1
10
49
2.Union Rags $1,170,000
4
2
2
10
38
3.Drill$300,000
27
7
6
10
25
4.Hansen$1,550,000
1
8
7
10
24
5.Dullahan$855,000
5
6
8
10
23
6.I'll Have Another$601,000
16
10
11
10
22
7.Secret Circle$670,000
13
12
12
8
21
8.Trinniberg$324,500
24
13
13
8
21
9.Alpha$380,000
21
15
14
8
20
10.Majestic City$170,000
51
20
15
8
18
11.Gemologist$703,855
10
14
17
10
17
12.Optimizer$184,708
47
25*
19
6
16
13.Bodemeister$660,000
14
17
20
10
15
14.Rousing Sermon$270,000
32
32*
23
8
14
15.Daddy Long Legs$1,294,030
3
24
24
7
14
16.Wrote (IRE)$756,630
8
22
25
10
13
17.Take Charge Indy$698,400
12
23
29
10
12
18.Liaison$393,000
20
27*
35
10
10
19.Currency Swap$150,000
55
29*
37
10
10
20.Excaper$240,736
38
38*
38
8
10
21.El Padrino$250,000
37
40*
39
7
10
22.Jack's in the Deck$105,000
76
42*
41
7
10
23.Sabercat$701,429
11
43*
42
6
10
24.Mark Valeski$260,000
36
45*
43
5
10
  
25.Reveron$220,000
40
47*
44
8
9
26.Prospective$367,327
23
39*
45
7
9
27.Daddy Nose Best$545,558
17
37*
47
4
9
28.State of Play$100,000
82
48*
53
7
8
29.Hero of Order$617,375
15
54*
55
7
7
30.O'Prado Again$120,000
68
57*
58
7
7
31.The Lumber Guy$150,000
56
58*
59
7
7
32.Yang Tse Kiang (FR)$422,211
19
85*
80
5
5
33.Done Talking$311,000
25
100*
103
4
4
34.Went the Day Well$282,000
31
102*
105
4
4
  
1.Grace Hall (f)$740,000
9
4
3
10
30
2.My Miss Aurelia (f)$1,350,000
2
3
4
10
27
3.Weemissfrankie (f)$522,120
18
5
5
10
26
4.Stephanie's Kitten (f)$850,446
6
9
9
10
23
5.Reneesgotzip (f)$200,000
43
11
10
8
23
6.On Fire Baby (f)$286,729
29
16
16
7
18
7.Eden's Moon (f)$186,000
46
19
18
10
16
8.Willa B Awesome (f)$264,000
35
18
21
10
14
9.Killer Graces (f)$284,200
30
21
26
10
13
  
10.Believe You Can (f)$369,734
22
33*
32
7
11


In a point system used by the Breeders' Cup (BC-PTS) to measure the value of finish positions across graded levels, the place and show points at each grade level match the win and place points at the next lower level.

BC-PTSWPS
G1$1064
G2$642
G3$421


In another point system (TR-PTS) defined at the “Thoroughbred Report” website (http://www.thoroughbredreport.com), finishing 2nd is also worth more than finishing 1st at the next lower grade level.

TR-PTS WPS
G1$1086
G2$753
G3$421


Each TR-PTS value is unique and will used to indicate a horse’s top–rated finish in any graded stakes race as well as to determine a TR_PTS rating. It will also be used as the primary tie-breaker in ranking identical TR_PTS or BC-PTS ratings. The secondary tie-breaker will be the number of Win, Place, or Show (WPS) finishes in graded stakes.

This is the latest in a series that compares actual and proposed Kentucky Derby eligibility rankings as they emerge weekly while potential Derby runners race their way into contention for a berth in the starting gate. Currently, an entrant's eligibility is based on the total purse money it earned in graded stakes races prior to the Derby.

The idea of instead using cumulative points assigned to an entrant's placing at the grade level in each of the same races is not new. However, we believe it is a novel approach to actually generate multiple rankings from carefully considered alternative weighted point systems for continuous review by interested parties


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Do you have a take on the state of the game, a favorite race horse, trainer or jockey? Share your ideas. Show the racing industry and media the folly of their ways. The HRI Readers Blog: "When you lose it, Use it." Submit your blog to HRI Webmaster.
 
 

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