Vic Zast

From the perspective of being an owner, an industry pioneer in corporate sponsorship, a track president and fan, Vic Zast writes the "Destinations" column for The Blood-Horse. His five-star ratings of international events have shed light on racing in all corners of the globe - from England, Australia, Hong Kong, Dubai to Japan.

Vic is a regular contributor to MSNBC.com, a columnist for the Illinois Racing News and has written on racing for ESPN.com, National Public radio and The Age, Australia's leading daily.

Vic makes his home in Chicago and lives in Saratoga Springs in August.

Most recent entries

Monthly Archives

Syndicate


Saturday, May 15, 2010


How to Bet a “Thou” on the Preakness


Preakness Factoids

In the last 37 years, 31 Preakness winners competed in the
Kentucky Derby (84%).
Horses that fit this profile this year are:
Super Saver (winner)
Paddy O’Prado (third)
Lookin at Lucky (sixth)
Dublin (seventh)
Jackson Bend (twelfth)

Fourteen of these 31 Preakness winners (45%) had won the Kentucky Derby. (38% of 37 total Preakness winners.) One horse fits this profile:
Super Saver

Seven of the last 13 Preakness winners won the Kentucky Derby (54%). But the previous eight Preakness winners did not win the Derby (Please note that several heavy favorites lost in upsets.) One horse fits this profile:
Super Saver

Seven of the last 13 Preakness exactas paid under $40 (54%). But five of the last eight Preakness exactas have paid more than $40 (62.5%). The last eight Preakness exactas paid:
2001 - $81.40
2002 - $327.00
2003 - $120.00
2004 - $24.60
2005 - $152.60
2006 - $171.60
2007 - $23.20
2008 – $36.30 (Note: exacta payout was reduced in value because 2-5 heavy favorite won; second place horse was 26-1 longshot)
2009 - $39.20

The average payout for last eight Preakness exactas was $122.00, suggesting that it makes sense to bet a couple of favorites with various longshots hoping to catch the longshot.

My “throw-out” horses with reason why:
Aikenite (still eligible for non-winners of one other than maiden)
Northern Giant (class deficiency)
Yawanna Twist (class deficiency)
Jackson Bend (should be a miler)

My “puzzled over these” horses:
First Dude (he looks on the improve, but might have distance limitations)
Dublin (gets nation’s best jockey, but this race might be too far for him)
Caracordato (his best racing might have occurred in Jan-March)
Schoolyard Dreams (wise guy horse, but no better than third…I think)

My “must include” horses:
Pleasant Prince (was nose shy of best Derby horse, Ice Box, in Fla. Derby)
Paddy O’Prado (ran credible third in the Derby despite troubled trip)

My “horses to beat”:
Super Saver (he had the perfect trip to win the Derby; can he get it again?)
Lookin at Lucky (was terribly unlucky in three losses; finished respectable sixth in the Derby despite horrendous trip)

Betting strategy: (The horses listed are not choices, just examples. Substitute your choices, as preferred.) Bet two or three horses to win, choosing one as your prime choice and the second as your backup (e.g. $200 win on Lookin at Lucky, $100 win on Super Saver); take a stab at a few low-cost trifectas using the two favorites with various longshots (e.g) $5 trifecta Lookin at Lucky, Super Saver with Aikenite, First Dude, Caracartado and Super Saver, Lookin at Lucky with Pleasant Prince, Dublin and Schoolyard Dreams; try two or three medium-priced longshots across the board – win, place and show (e.g. $20 win, place and show on Pleasant Prince; $20 win, place and show on First Dude); combine a couple favorites with longshots in exacta boxes (e.g. $20 exacta box on Super Saver, Lookin at Lucky and Schoolyard Dreams; $20 exacta box on Super Saver, Lookin at Lucky and Paddy O’Prado), try a few exacta boxes using only one favorite (e.g. $10 exacta boxes Lookin at Lucky, Paddy O’Prado and Dublin, $10 exacta boxes Super Saver, Pleasant Prince and First Dude), and then take a flyer with low-cost exactas using your first choice with crazy longshots (e.g. straight $5 exactas – Super Saver with Northern Giant, Lookin at Lucky with Aikenite, Paddy O’ Prado with Schoolyard Dreams, etc.).

Best advice:
Proceed at your own risk. I'm a guy who bets (and wins with) hunch bets.


Written by Vic Zast

Comments (0)

BallHype: hype it up!
 
 

Page 1 of 1 pages