(CHICAGO, IL – May 17, 2010) This is not how stories about becoming a horseplayer begin. They are usually about sitting on your father’s knee, booking bets for your classmates in high school or falling in love with the Black Stallion book series. But on Saturday, Chicagoan Joel Thomas - which for purposes of this story is the alias of a real-life protagonist - walked into an off-track betting shop on Weed Street, made several wagers totaling $1000 on the Preakness, went home to watch the race on his living room television set and looked on as three horses he backed - Lookin at Lucky, First Dude and Jackson Bend – crossed the finish line ahead of the pack.
The Preakness was not the first time Thomas scored a 130 percent profit with a $1000 wager. It was the second. Two weeks ago, he bet $1000 on the Kentucky Derby, hit the Super Saver-Ice Box exacta and landed up with about $2300. In both races, his method was to bet $100 on a few horses the experts expected to win, a few $20 exacta boxes combining his choices with longshots, and $20 across the board wagers on a smattering of runners whose names simply “stuck with” him. After two races, and roughly four minutes of tension, the fortune-blessed Thomas is up $2600.
Now, you may think that a score of $2600 is insignificant compared to the $900,000 won by the guy on TV who gambled $100,000 of somebody else’s money. But Thomas’s accomplishment is eye-opening. He had wagered on a horse race before, maybe 20 or 25 times in his lifetime. But, each time he purchased a betting slip, the cost of his ticket was $5 or $10 – not more. To say the least, Thomas was an unlikely patron to visit the Weed Street bookmakers with a g-note in hand and anti-freeze for blood. He knows little about horse racing, also.
“I think I was bored,” the retired ad executive said about why he tried his luck at horses. “The amount got my attention and allowed me to enjoy the Derby more than if I had simply watched it. I was willing to lose the money for the thrill,” Thomas said.
Thomas has respect for the Triple Crown as an American institution, in the same sense he watches the Indy 500 despite not being an active fan of motor sport. And so he concocted his plan to address boredom by searching for excitement on the first Saturday in May. Regardless, this past weekend meant even more to him. “I found myself very involved in this second leg,” Thomas said. “The Preakness was a sit-down occasion. I enjoyed every minute,” he added.
Lacking experience, Thomas wasn’t able to comprehend from the telecast where his horses were until they were strung out in the homestretch. But when he heard Tom Durkin call First Dude’s name in contention with Lookin at Lucky, he became focused. “I knew that if I didn’t win, the exacta would be the only way for me to get my money back,” Thomas said. It was the exacta and an across-the-board bet on First Dude that paid off for him.
Thomas bet $100 to win on First Dude, Jackson Bend and Aikenite. He had First Dude boxed with Lookin at Lucky and Super Saver for $20. Unlike experienced handicappers, who knew that the Preakness was a race that could favor a front runner but that First Dude’s fractions didn’t favor the horse staying on for 1 3/16 miles, all Thomas was concerned about was that what he was seeing was indeed what was happening. But Thomas made up for his lack of abilities pertaining to race watching with a significant understanding of how cash allocation can result in positive result, even in the toughest market.
Like managing a financial portfolio, Thomas spread his risk over several wagers. He pulled the trigger on 11 different transactions and scored with only two. But those two reflected trends he knew about – that 31 of the last 37 Preakness winners competed in the Kentucky Derby and that five of the last eight Preakness exactas averaged a $122 payout, which portended a favorite in combination with a longshot. “I feel a little better about myself than if I just came back from a blackjack table with the same result,” Thomas admitted.
Thomas’s warm feelings about his wagering experience represent the main contention of many horseplayers that horse racing has come up short in promoting the positive nature of gambling on horses. These frustrated individuals cite the game’s intellectual challenge, its reliance on analysis and fascinating complexity as clearly superior to other opportunities for risk-taking. But Thomas’s success, attained without the appurtenance of perspective, also leads to other controversies. For example, what really is the connection between knowing the game and being proficient at it?
Notwithstanding this issue, it would be truly unusual if the story of one anonymous punter would change anything in the type of coverage horse racing receives in the media or the kind of respect horseplayers get in relation to other practitioners - the horses, owners, trainers, jockeys and breeders. But the feelings and conclusions expressed by Thomas taught at least one hack who, as they say in the press box, buys ink by the barrel, that there is human interest, if not news, to be found in the consequence of luck. It’s ironic that the winner was Lookin at Lucky, when Thomas has been lucky beyond what he has earned.
“For this level of betting, I think I’ll remain a Triple Crown bettor. Had I lost the thousand in the Preakness, I might have bet all my Derby winnings ($300) on one horse in the Belmont,” Thomas confessed, delighted, of course, that it hadn’t come to that. “But I’d be very much surprised if I didn’t find myself out at Arlington Park this summer,” he predicted.
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17 May 2010 at 03:25 am | #
Vic,
Have your man go to Arlington on Million weekend!
Meanwhile, sure there was luck involved wih his good fortune but this was no wild stab.
Thomas used trend analysis and quite often-- especially in major events where horsemen their runners providng their have the proper tools-- certain variables will repeat.
I’ve been advocating for the last several years that the traditional handicapping paradigm needs to change. More on how that could be accomplished in a future column.
And you are correct in hinting that a minute or two on handicapping/wagering on a national broadcast might be interesting perhaps even instructive.
But if that entails getting a couple of name-brand handicappers from, say, Daily Racing Form, with its vested interests and close ties to the industry, then, frankly, don’t bother.
If people are interested in growing the game by infusing it with new ideas, time to think outside the traditional handicapping box. Thanks for a fun read.
JP
17 May 2010 at 03:34 am | #
You are correct on all counts, JP.
18 May 2010 at 01:01 am | #
Betting against oneself is about the fastest way I know to deplete a bankroll.
18 May 2010 at 04:10 am | #
Tell the hedge funders about that.
18 May 2010 at 04:44 am | #
I would have been disappointed if wmcorrow had not commented on this column, no matter what he wrote. He is one of the readers who repeatedly encourages turf writers to write about horse racing in terms of the financial success that people can have betting on horse races.
I generally write about what interests me and what I believe most people haven’t thought about, disregarding the marketplace. Writers know the topics that editors will publish and they gravitate to them in order to get published, e.g. anything about Barbaro is a slam-dunk; this week everyone’s writing about the Triple Crown (I did that four weeks ago).
“Lessons of Weed Street” offers a study of a successful horseplayer that approached betting the Derby and Preakness despite a lack of experience. My intention was to make the point that expertise in the game may not be the requirement for turning a profit that everyone thinks. In addition, I thought the piece would please my readers who are horseplayers first, fans secondly. Despite some differences in opinion, I’m grateful for them.
Regardless of the betting strategy that Joel Thomas employed, he’s ahead $2600 on two races. In one regard, Thomas was better at predicting the future than I. I expected more thoughtful reader response than “betting against yourself” advice as a result of the column. Thomas would read that one comment and ask, “How did that guy do?” And who’s to say that he wouldn’t be right in asking?
18 May 2010 at 04:55 am | #
Vic,
Let’s give Jet his props. Wall Street proved you can bet against yourself and score out, especially if you bet ON yourself first.
JP
18 May 2010 at 11:37 am | #
First of all, I fail to understand or appreciate how the Wall Street crooks, who apparently bet against themselves, can be compared to us bettors who are trying to make a few buck on the nags.
I am pleased that Mr. Zast commented on a bettor who made money wagering on a horse race; however, the bettor who wagered a $1000 is not representative of the thousands of bettors who wager throughout the year: just how many wager $1000 on one race?
I could never understand, and still don’t,
Steven Crist’s Saratoga Diary, where he goes into detail everyday on how to win the pick six during the Saratoga meet. Interesting, but who is he talking too? Not me, as I simply cannot afford to wager from $750 to $2500 per day, hoping to win the pick six.
Just about all bettors who are involved in Tboroughbred racing wager no more than $200 a day.
It would be nice, and beneficial to racing,if you turf writers dropped commentary on the usualy suspects (Pletcher, Baffert, Zito, Dutrow, et cetera) and directed your commentary to how racing is an exciting gambling option to casino gambling; and, stop commenting that slot players do not come over to racing as handicapping racing is to difficult - has a learning curve. Bull! Most hare-core gamblers are not Rhodes scholars.
“Play it again Sam”: Thoroughbred racing’s only attraction is the ability to gamble. If there were no betting windows at a racetrack, the place would be empty. Visualize anyone giving the Kentucky Derby a second thought if there were no betting windows.