(SARATOGA SPRINGS, NY – June 28, 2010) Those people who attended the University of Arizona Racetrack Industry Symposium of 1983 may not remember the event. Twenty-seven years is a long time to harbor a memory, especially when memories aren’t the stock in trade of such boondoggles. One can barely recall what was discussed in the light of day when the haze of the evening is met with cocktails at parties and big meals in Tucson’s top restaurants. Yet, something was said in the panels that should have stuck.

The symposium took place at the dawn of the simulcasting era, on the eve of the Breeders’ Cup. Technology for video-transmitting horse racing action to off-track locations was still in its infancy. Racecourse operators realized that the point of purchase for buying and selling wagers was shifting, although they had no idea of what would come ultimately. Nevertheless, several expert consultants predicted that five or six tracks and foal crops of 15,000 horses would eventually remain after the effects of the technological developments were fully felt. A contraction of the industry was expected; it never happened. The only contraction occurred in the sport’s popularity.

Ironically, that which was to have happened decades ago might be happening now. Racecourses aren’t dropping from the map, but some have disappeared quietly, some are shortening their seasons, some are cutting back on the number of races they present each day. Moreover, breeding programs are feeling the sting of the sport’s dwindling popularity. “The road to excess leads to the palace of wisdom,” wrote the poet William Blake. Is it possible that these are good signs?

There are indications that horse racing is beginning to consider a smaller, more profitable business model. Monmouth Park took the biggest step in the direction of contraction by instituting its weekends-only summer program this season. Jeff Gural, the guru of New York State harness racing, reiterated his theory of “less is more” to the State’s annual Gaming Summit in the keynote address this past week. New York State Racing and Wagering Board chairman John Sabini proclaimed, “The meets that are most successful are ones that have beginnings, middles and ends” – with the emphasis on “end.”

Prior to 27 years ago, racecourse operators believed that they would “tap out” their customers with too much racing, thus rendering the operations of their businesses inefficient. Having the chance to buy product cheaply, every owner of a facility with a pari-mutuel license began offering betting opportunities non-stop, twelve hours/seven, without concern that his customers would run out of money. Before the simulcasting age, operators believed there was a limit to how much people could lose. Once technology kicked in, they began to act otherwise.

The debilitating effect of takeout associated with pari-mutuel betting exasperated the problem. Once state governments accommodated gamblers with casinos, the gamblers had a way to lose money slower. Although the spread of gambling in every corner of the country proves that the pot from which gamblers sup is an all-you-can-eat buffet, it does not appear that the money supply among horseplayers is endless. This has led to the new understanding that horseplayers, in the main, aren’t casino players. This, in turn, will lead to a shift in strategy.

Today, the New York Racing Association is hosting a luncheon to sell its upcoming Saratoga season to the media. As of now, there is dismay in the area of the racetrack over how badly the sport has been trashed in recent months to pry funding from the State to keep operating. Many people aren’t excited about the meet yet and one wonders if 2010 will be a rare year in which ennui affects attendance negatively. The threat of abandonment cast the feeling that history has granted Saratoga the right to have horse racing in the harsh light of economics. The wrong emotions erupted when the romance was let out of the experience.

In any case, NYRA officials will be hip-hip-hooraying the meet. They’ll promote a line-up of graded stakes that should gather most of the sport’s stars (although not the biggest - Zenyatta). A representative of the Danny Meyer’s restaurant group, recently licensed to sell food in the backyard, will explain what a treat it will be for fans to stand in a long line for a hamburger (It's worth it!). The presentation will set forth news about freebies for spinners and Fridays with twilight hours.

In addition, someone is certain to point out that Saratoga will race 40 days and seven weekends, up from 36 days and six weekends last year. Although his statement won’t reveal what this really means, it will mean that the meet is a test of which theory – that of contraction or expansion - is better. Two tracks, within driving distance of the other, will be racing simultaneously and approaching their respective seasons implementing different philosophies. The guess here is when all is said and done, both tracks will claim success, regardless of the numbers.

Ideally, in keeping with the trend to turn back the clock, horse racing in New York State should begin with Belmont Park in mid-April, running summers at Saratoga, and returning to Belmont from early September to late October. But it would take an act of God to get everyone involved in such a cutback together. As for Aqueduct, it’s one of those tracks that the sport doesn’t need, one of those tracks that were rendered obsolete because more isn’t more anymore.

There’s something that horse racing’s even more resistant to than change and that’s the inclination to act quickly. The industry loves consultants; it likes to act in committee. The few mavericks who dare to think differently are either criticized before they can prove that they’re on to something worthwhile or they suffer from Al Davis syndrome. Nevertheless, the future for the sport, beat up as it has been, is not without hope. Just don’t try to predict what it’ll be. That was tried long ago and no one listened.

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