Thursday, January 26, 2017
Two-horse Pegasus can still be a good betting race
If Arrogate or California Chrome don't win the Pegasus, it will be the biggest upset since, well, Upset beat Man O War. It's conceivable either of the big two could throw in a clunker or run into trouble. Stuff happens. For both to come up short is inconceivable. Still there are ways to make the Pegasus an interesting betting proposition thanks to multiple horizontal and vertical wagers. But the best strategy is to enjoy these two superstars meeting for the final time.
MIAMI, Jan. 26--The NBA has 30 teams. Outside local loyalists, it would be hard to find anyone who doesnât expect either the Cleveland Cavaliers or Golden State Warriors to win this yearâs championship.
This is analogous to Saturdayâs $12 million Pegasus. Anything can happen in a horse race but it requires a surplus of imagination and optimism to work up a credible case for anyone but California Chrome or Arrogate. One is the newly crowned Horse of the Year, the other was just named the worldâs best race horse. In the Breedersâ Cup Classic, which had a tougher field top to bottom, they put 10-plus lengths on the rest.
To borrow an expression, the others donât breathe the same air. For one of them to beat either of the stars would be a gargantuan upset. To beat both would be cause to think about throwing away the Racing Form and resort to picking names or jockey colors.
For the hardcore, there are still ways to make it an interesting betting proposition. Of course, thereâs the multi-race bets, Pick 3âs, 4âs, 5âs and the Rainbow 6. But even if youâre not alive, there are wide-open exactas and trifectasâthe back end of the superfectas and super hi 5. Do what you will with the top two then put your next two or three below them.
You have to wonder about the race within the race. How many of the 10 field-fillers will just lay back and gun for the $1 million show money. It doesnât matter after that, since fourth through 12th gets the same $250,000.
Keen Ice is an obvious fit for a big minor share. He doesnât have the speed to test the big two, so burnout is less of a threat, he will be running late and heâs had a race over the track. Alas, a standard trifecta including him might pay single digits thanks to his giant killer reputation for running down American Pharoah in the 2015 Travers.
If youâre looking for ticket-makers, you could do worse than Breaking Lucky and Semper Fortis. Both are in sharp hands and have run races good enough to get on the board here. A superfecta box with the big two on top and what amounts to a three-horse box with Keen Ice, Breaking Lucky and Semper Fortis in the third and fourth slots might be a good way to go.
But the big two make this a race to watch and savor. To waste the experience of seeing the superstars coming down to the wire by focusing on the battle for fourth or fifth is sinful.
Likewise, the riders of the also-rans will get $1,000 apiece unless they have a private arrangement, according to Tim Ritvo, COO of The Stronach Group and President of Gulfstream Park. He says all have been advised that they will be expected to go all out to get the lesser spots.
This is merely one of the issues surrounding the Pegasus. But few things are perfect right from the get-go. Secretariat got beat in his first start. So did American Pharoah and Arrogate. You fix what wasnât quite right and go on from there.âLike anything else, you get better with practice,â Ritvo said
The equality of purse money beyond third and paying back to last was a sweetener for stakes-holders and is something that will be reconsidered for the future, Ritvo said. When the $1 million buy-in was conceived there was no confidence a dozen players could be enticed. âMr. Stronach was prepared to buy three shares,â Ritvo said. But the 12 slots were gone within a week. Stronach kept one, which he will use on Shaman Ghost.
Much has been made of each share-holder putting up $1 million. Thanks to the $250,000 guarantee, the ante is really $750,000. This is still a lot of cash but Ritvo tried to put it into an interesting perspective. âThrough the years, people have bought million dollar horses, always looking to get into the big races. What we did was say, âWhy not buy the spot in the gate then try to find your horse?â So we kind of reverse engineered the process.â
The original share-holders also have right of first refusal for future renewals of the Pegasus and the potential to share in the proceeds for media rights. This might be overly optimistic. The Stronach Group is paying NBC to carry the race from 4:30-6 p.m.This is the norm. Only the Triple Crown races command rights fees. All other races, including the long established Breedersâ Cup, pay to be on TV in one form or another. Sponsorships are used to cover the cost.
This is why Ritvo said the most important metric on Saturday isnât crowd size or handle but TV ratings. âWeâre hoping in the future there will be a bidding war between the networks to carry the race?â It will be a greater accomplishment than creating the worldâs richest race if The Stronach Group can ever get TV to pay a rights fee.
In the latest example of Murphyâs Law (If something can go wrong, it will) the worst nightmare for the Pegasus--a standout horse drawing a bad postâcame to fruition when California Chrome pulled the No. 12 pill.Over the past decade, the only horse to win a mile-and-an-eighth race from No. 12 at Gulfstream is Big Brown in the 2008 Florida Derby. Big Brown, who went on to win the Derby and Preakness, didnât have an Arrogate inside him.
Chromeâs trainer, Art Sherman, has such faith in his horse, the draw didnât faze him. âHeâs overcome about every post. He drew the 1 in the Pacific Classic and nobody was winning from there but you saw what happened. Then in Dubai he was on the outside, the 11. It might as well have been the 12. He is just a push button horse. You can get your position coming out of there because heâs got enough early speed to put him in any place you want to.â
The short run to the first turn at nine furlongs has been viewed as problematic since the Pegasus was announced, Ritvo acknowledged. A mile and a quarter was considered. The feeling was a mile and an eighth would attract milers stretching out and mile-and-a-quarter type horses. I'll say it one more time. Why not a mile-and-three-sixteenths, the same distance as The Stronach Group premier race, the Preakness?
One miler stretching out that the Pegasus people had to have in mind was 2015 Eclipse Sprint Champion Runhappy, whose owner James McIngvale was an original subscriber. âMattress Macâ spent 2016 trying to get Runhappy to stretch out with the Pegasus the target. He wound up wasting a year of a great horseâs career and having to settle for Argentinian import Eragonâa miler.
Some feel the No. 1 post could be disadvantageous to Arrogate, if he doesnât break sharply. Money Mike Smith, who will be aboard, doesnât share this concern.âIt worked good for us in the Travers. You hope it works again.â
Heâd take any post over the one California Chrome wound up with. âThe post I didnât want to draw the most is the 12. The 1 isnât the post I would have chosen, either, but it is what it is. Heâs sharp right now. Heâs been training aggressive in the morning, so heâs going to be aggressive leaving there.â
He better be. âChome is on his game,â a supremely confident Sherman said. âHeâs as good as Iâve ever seen him. Itâs going to be a great race.â
Minor issues notwithstanding, kudos to The Stronach Group for making it happen.
Written by Tom Jicha
Thursday, January 19, 2017
Cuomo’s re-privatization of NYRA proposal loaded with land mines
New York governor Andrew Cuomo has come up with another proposal to re-privatize NYRA. It would include night racing at Belmont and fewer winter dates at Aqueduct. Each of these is sure to stir opposition from horsemen and citizen activist groups. This might be Cuomo's intention. He could delay turning back NYRA and blame it on others.
MIAMI, Jan. 19, 2017--Racing after dark could be coming to Belmont and winter racing could be going at a re-privatized New York Racing Association.
These bombshells were first dropped on Tuesday in the midst of a hearing of the New York Senate Racing, Gaming and Wagering Sub-Committee. As he conducted the hearing, Sen. John Bonacic was handed a blog post from the Albany Times-Union reporting Cuomo was planning to turn back NYRA as part of his new state budget. The report was confirmed later in the day.
Evening racing at Belmont and an unspecified reduction in racing during the cold weather months is a part of the governorâs plan.
Sen Bonacicâs panel was essentially a gripe session. Others present are as unhappy as Bonacic is with Gov. Cuomo maintaining control of NYRA two years past the deadline for returning it to private hands. So Cuomoâs proposal, which came out of the blue, could be just blowing smoke by the politically savvy governor. Cuomo knew he was going to take a beating at the hearing and probably wanted to change the narrative in media coverage, which he did.
It is not cause for New York racing fans to begin kissing each other in Times Square. Cuomo had a plan last year to supposedly re-privatize NYRA but it was basically a sham in which Cuomo flunkies would still control NY racing. This one could be more of the same.
A new NYRA board would have 15 members, eight from the private sector, six appointed by the governor and NYRAâs CEO Christopher Kay. So Cuomo would start with seven votes in his pocket. All he would need to maintain control is to win over one of the private sector representatives. This wouldnât be a daunting challenge considering the power the governor has over areas of commerce in which private sector representatives likely to be chosen participate.
The same citizenâs coalitions that kept slot machines out of Belmont could reorganize to oppose evening racing in their neighborhood. Even if this is avoided, thoroughbred racing after dark in the metropolitan area at the Meadowlands never proved to be the wild success it was forecast to be. In fact, the harness horses did better, probably a product of the trotters and pacers having a history and fan base after the sun went down. Itâs easy to say, âWell, that was New Jersey,â but the Meadowlands is located closer to parts of the Bronx and Manhattan than Belmont Park on Long Island is.
How greatly winter racing will be curtailed would be a major issue with horsemen and their employees, who canât afford to winter in Florida. Also, horsemen at every venue where night racing has been introduced have raised objections to their people having to cool out horses after midnight then be at the barn a few hours later for normal training procedures.
This proposal also represents the latest indication that the governor remains determined to shut down Aqueduct as a race track and use the land to expand the casino and surround it with a hotel and convention center.
So these reports might be nothing more than a tactic to get horsemen and others to raise objections, which would allow Cuomo to pass blame for another delay in surrendering control of NYRA.
Sunshine (not nearly) Millions
Anyone who doubts how difficult it is to get horsemen to agree on anything, even when itâs in their best interests, need not look any further than Gulfstream Park this Saturday. The annual Sunshine Millions will be renewed but this year the title is a misnomer.
In the past, there were six races with cumulative purses of more than a million dollars: the Classic for $250K, the Distaff for $200K and the Turf, Filly & Mare Turf, Sprint and the Turf Sprint for $150K apiece. This year, the Turf Sprint has been dropped, the Classic has had its purse reduced to $200K and the other four will go for $100K apiece.
Itâs fair to ask how can this be when Gulfstream recently announced wagering on live races last year was up 13% to more than a billion and a half dollars?
Simple answer. The Florida Thoroughbred Breeders and Owners Association (FTBOA) and the Florida Horsemen âs Benevolent and Protective Association (FHBPA) are in a tinkling war, which essentially boils down to who is going to have the loudest voice in South Florida racing and control the vast amount of dollars gleaned from handle.
The sides are pointing blame at each other but the end result of their circular firing squad is everyone will compete for less than 60% of what they could have.
Keep in mind, both organizations have members who also race at the NYRA tracks and will have a voice in the re-privatization proposal.
Circus closing a warning to Greatest Show on Turf
Most folks probably felt a tinge of sadness at the announcement that the Ringling Bros. and Barnum & Bailey Circus is shutting down after 146 years. It might be years since the last time you went to the âgreatest show on Earthâ but itâs disheartening to see a once cherished piece of Americana die.
The demise of the circus can be traced to several factors. Changing tastes is a big one. If the circus was turned into a video game, kids these days might take interest. Also, the cost of staging a traveling road show has exploded.
Another major factor--the reason I bring it up here--was years of battling animal rights groups, the same hassles horse racing is experiencing. Organizations like the Humane Society and PETA are relentless. It matters not if their allegations are unfounded or outright lies. Feld Entertainment, owner of RBB&B, won a $25 million settlement last May from activists for baseless charges that the circus mistreated its elephants.
Alas, it took 14 years and became a Pyrhhic victory. In the meantime, cities, most notably Los Angeles and Oakland, jumped on the bandwagon and banned elephants and other elements of the circus. To appease them, RBB&B eliminated the elephants, a concession not unlike California thinking it could get PETA off its back by instituting a whip rule. Feld Entertainment said the elimination of the elephants led to the loss of customers, the same effect the whip controls could have on horse racing.
Now, not only the elephants are gone. The entire circus is about to fade into nostalgia.
Over the past few years, animal rights crusaders also have gotten greyhound racing banned almost everywhere but Florida. With decoupling in Florida looking inevitable, theyâll probably soon be able to claim another victory. They still wonât stop. If anything, they will be emboldened. They need villains, real or invented, to keep fund raising going.
I was going to say horse racing could be the next big target but their campaigns have already started. In addition to the whip rule cave-in, there have been pickets at racingâs biggest events the past few years, which always get plenty of media coverage.
Appeasement wonât succeed any more than it does in politics. Situations like the whip rule are almost an admission of wrong-doing. Instead of the losing strategy of giving in incrementally, racing has to mount a vigorous campaign to answer, resist and discredit these organizations or the game could go the way of the circus.
Written by Tom Jicha
Thursday, January 12, 2017
Masochistic BC ban should be the model for drug offenses
The Breeders' Cup has introduced a new penalty for drug violations. They are banning Masochistic from competing in next year's events. This is an idea that deserves wider consideration. If owners knew they would not only lost a purse but also the use of their horse, they would not be so tolerant of cheater trainers.
MIAMI, Jan. 12, 2016--The Breedersâ Cup dropped the anticipated hammer on Ron Ellis and Masochistic this week. For an overage of the steroid stanozolol, the purse for Masochisticâs second in the Breedersâ Cup Sprint has been redistributed and Ellis and Masochistic are both banned from competing at the 2017 Breedersâ Cup.
The punishment, in my opinion, doesnât fit the crime for Ellis. He has a reputation for running a clean shop with hardly any violations in a long and distinguished career. Moreover, the overage in Masochisticâs system was so minuscule--something like a few trillioniths of a gram--it wouldnât enhance the performance of an ant carrying a crumb across the floor.
By every indication, this was a case of a permitted out-of-training pharmaceutical not clearing a horseâs system in the time it was supposed to clear.
Also, the Santa Anita stewardsâwhy do they always seem to be at the heart of every controversy?--were aware that Masochistic might not pass his post-race drug test. Nevertheless, they allowed Ellis, who was totally transparent about the situation, to enter him.
Being banished from next yearâs Breedersâ Cup is a tough blow for Ellis. He is unlikely to be given any top stock with Breedersâ Cup potential and could lose some already in his barn. As I wrote last week, absolute rules with zero tolerance occasionally produce unjust results. This is another of those instances.
On the other hand, itâs almost karmic justice for Masochistic, who was used in my opinion and that of numerous others, in one of the greatest betting coups ever on Derby Day 2014. A non-competitive fifth in a Cal-bred MSW at Santa Anita at 7-1, he came back in an open MSW at Churchill Downs, was bet off the board on the day when more money is wagered than any other and crushed his rivals by 14.
In assessing this unprecedented penalty against Masochistic, the Breedersâ Cup might have created a paradigm for how to deal with medication violations. In addition to fining and/or suspending trainers, a horse found to have run juiced should be barred from the entries for 60 days. My original inclination was to say 30 days but in this era of overly conservative training, 30 days is coming back quickly for a lot of barns.
A second offense should increase the penalty to six months. Any additional violations should rule the horse off for life. Itâs unlikely it would ever get to the latter. Owners who look the other way, wink and smile en route to the winnerâs circle might have a different attitude toward their trainer if a positive meant they would not only lose the purse but also use of the horse.
Another mockery of the rules
Irad Ortiz has been spending the past week serving a five-day suspension for an infraction last October at Belmont. As is often the case, he used the appeals process to drag out serving his time until now.
How is there any equivalency between a week in frosty January, when few important races are being run, and what used to be called the Belmont fall championship meet, which is endowed with numerous stakes and huge purses?
Ortiz hit the gaming-the-system lottery when a winter storm knocked out racing both weekend days.
To alleviate exploitations of the appeals process, most of which are frivolous attempts to delay justice, appeals should be heard and ruled upon promptly, within a week or less, and the penalty enforced without delay.
Any rider who pursues his case beyond the stewards and loses should be subject to additional significant penalties. There is precedent for this in the legal system. If you get a traffic infraction and take it to court, the penalties are far more severe than if you plead guilty and pay the fine.
Whatâs an extra half-furlong?
Racing is a game where a quarter of an inch can be the difference between riches and despair. I recall a controversial circumstance from several years ago at old Gulfstream. It was clear the official timer was off by quite a bit race after race. Sharpies, who time the races themselves, provided ample evidence that it was a consistent problem.
Track officialsânot the ones running the show nowâfelt compelled to call a press conference to deal with the subject. The person in charge of the timer hemmed and hawed about how this wasnât that big a deal. Pressed on the absurdity of this stand, he finally blurted out. âWhat difference does 3/5ths of a second make?â
A media wise guy came up with the perfect retort. âItâs the difference between Alydar being a Triple Crown champion instead of Affirmed.â
Flash ahead to the present. The Dania Beach Stakes and its filly counterpart, the Ginger Brew, were each supposedly contested at 7 Â˝ furlongs on the Gulfstream turf course last Saturday. This is how they were listed. In fact they actually were much closer to one-mile races. So weâre talking about substantially more than 3/5ths of a second.
The run-up last Saturday was 296 feet. For non-math majors, this translates to almost 99 yards longer than the listed distance but only 11 yards short of a one-mile race. This is the case, give or take a few yards, with all 7 Â˝ furlong turf races at Gulfstream. It would be more accurate to list the distance as about one mile than 7 Â˝ furlongs.
Iâve asked why this is done and the answer is a head-scratcher. Essentially, some trainers donât think their horses can handle a mile race. This might seen illogical but if the race was in the books at one mile, there also would be a run-up so horses would have to run further than a mile.
This discrepancy is a disservice to handicappers, especially simulcast players not familiar with the layout of Gulfstream and those who use comparative times.
Ironically, Gulfstream might be the only track in America where one-mile races on the main track are truly contested at a mile, because the eight furlong chute is almost flush with the back of the track. This is why, contrary to the norm for racing everywhere, the second quarter is usually run a second or two faster than the opening quarter.
Those who create their own figs as well as the better known commercial figs guys all compile the actual running time of a race from the moment the gate springs to the finish line and make note of the run-up.
To be fair, this is not a problem peculiar to Gulfstream or to grass courses. Itâs one of those âthis is how itâs done everywhere and how it always has been done.â
But the run-up varies so widely from day to day that itâs long overdue that either the gate be placed at the precise distance from the wire as listed or the Racing Form parenthetically report the run-up for each event, dirt and turf.
Written by Tom Jicha