Thursday, November 10, 2016
BC Classic rematch is a must for the Pegasus
The $12 million Pegasus at Gulfstream now has a chance to become the instant classic Frank Stronach designed it to be. To achieve this goal, "the world's richest race" must find a way to stage a rematch between Arrogate and California Chrome on Jan, 28. Anything less and it's just another Saturday feature. California Chrome is being pointed toward the race, which will be the last of his career. Arrogate is the challenge. His connections are not among the dozen $1 million subscribers. Even if Gulfstream has to give him a scholarship, it must be done.
MIAMI, Nov. 10--Memo to Frank Stronach: You have to make Arrogate-California Chrome happen again in the Pegasus. This should be your over-riding priority for the next two months.
Skepticism has abounded about whether "the world's richest race" will actually happen on Jan. 28 and what it will look like if it does. If Gulfstream can arrange an encore of the Breeders' Cup Classic, the race will be an instant classic, the goal since its inception.
People will be talking about horses rather than money. The purse was a creative way to capture attention in the racing community and media. However, it means nothing to fans. Even-money pays the same $4 on a snowy January night at Penn National as it will on sunny (hopefully) Jan. 28 at Gulfstream.
Round two of Arrogate-California Chrome will excite the masses. I don't know if it will excite them enough to go for the $100 general admission charge. This really needs to be rethought. But it will put eyeballs in front of TV screens, which will matter when it's time to go back to NBC to negotiate the 2018 renewal.
Anything less than a Breedersâ€™ Cup rematch and it's just another Saturday feature. With only one of the two stars, it's a non-appealing walkover. What was it, about half a furlong back to the third-place finisher in the Classic? Who is there, who wasn't in the Classic, who could be taken seriously against Arrogate or California Chrome?
It looks like California Chrome is a sure thing. His people are among the original $1 million subscribers. Arrogate's connections are not. They are the ones who have to be courted and cajoled.
There should be plenty of berths in the starting gate up for negotiation. One is owned by Stronach. It probably was ticketed for Shaman Ghost, whose status is uncertain after his scratch from the Classic. The upset winner of the Woodward is a nice horse but he adds nothing in the way of star power.
The $1 million buy-in for Arrogateâ€™s Juddmonte gang is tip money but they are in a position to play hardball. So even if Stronach has to give Arrogate a scholarship, it has to be done.
The first call should go to the pizza guy in Illinois, who bought one of the dozen berths on speculation. He doesn't own a single horse to run around the track for the minimum $200,000 purse or a share in the $400,000 consolation stakes, so he should be amenable to a reasonable offer.
About that $200,000 guarantee; this is another thing that has to be re-imagined. It could create a sham situation, where those who own the 12 slots but don't have a credible contender dig deep into their barn, or even claim some cheap horse to run around the track, to get back what they can from their investment.
It was a savvy move in August to drop the participation reward $50K from $250,000 to moderately buck up fourth and fifth money. However, the guarantee for sixth to 12th has to go in the future, so that place and show rewards can be bolstered.
As it is now, the $1.75 million for second constitutes only a small profit after expenses and the $1 million for third represents a negative return when the traditional 10 percent each for the trainer and jockey are deducted.
The minor awards need to be kicked up to about $2.5 million and $1.5 million. With the $7 million top prize etched in stone, $1million would still be available to divvy up among the fourth and fifth finishers. There should be no rewards for lesser placings. Participation awards are as bad an idea in racing as they are in youth sports.
Not everything stays in Vegas
"What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas" is one of the most clever ad slogans ever. But there is an exception. Bad feelings about ill treatment go home with visitors.
There used to be a welcome mat around town for horse players, especially since the advent of simulcast pari-mutuels, which took the gamble out of racing and guaranteed casinos a profit.
This is no longer the case. In addition, the extraneous perks that made Sin City such a delight are fading faster than Runhappy in the Mile.
Inexpensive rooms and entertainment are relics of the past. Cheap buffets no longer exist. Some cost as much as $30. Itâ€™s going to get worse. Nevada legalized recreational marijuana on Tuesday. You can just see people toking up before attacking the all-you-can-eat lines.
The MGM properties on the Strip now charge up to $10 a day for parking, a trial balloon for all of Las Vegas, I fear.
I was a regular at the once horseplayer-friendly Orleans, home of the World Series of Handicapping each spring, for many years. For a change of pace, the past few years I switched my tack to the newer South Point, which still rolls out the red carpet for racing fans. Unfortunately, I procrastinated making my Breeders' Cup weekend reservations and got shut out at South Point.
I foolishly opted for a return trip to the Orleans. I was quickly and constantly reminded that I left the Orleans for reasons beyond South Point's newness. There now seems to be a contempt for horse players at the Boyd property.
In a stupefying decision, Racing Forms, which were $2 (you have to buy three to cover the major tracks) at the Orleans, are now $3 apiece the night before. The rationalization is the extra dollar discourages players from picking up a Form at the Orleans then going somewhere else the next day.
Right, people are going to make a special stop at the off-the-Strip hotel to save a buck. Measure this against betting revenue lost from guests at the hotel, who can't handicap overnight. The casinoâ€™s cut from one extra $10 bet the next day would cover the surcharge.
Itâ€™s not the dollar. Itâ€™s the attitude it conveys.
Simulcasts were piped into the guest rooms for years. No more. Itâ€™s not that there is no space on the closed-circuit system. The channels that used to carry racing now lie vacant.
Drinks used to be free without hassles while you were playing. A few years ago, the Orleans instituted a ticket system. You have to ask for one when you make a bet or the cocktail server can't bring you a drink. Fair enough. There are free-loaders, who sit in the race and sports book all day without making a bet.
The tickets could be used at any bar 24/7. This was eventually revised so they could only be used at the bar nearest the race book. This came in handy when the cocktail servers were slammed. Now they can be used only through the server.
On Breeders' Cup Day, one harried server was assigned the entire race and sports book, which seats a couple of hundred. Slower service translates to fewer drinks.
It doesn't end there. A ticket formerly got you your drink of choice. Now if you want a premium beer--Corona or Heineken--or a brand-name liquor, it's three tickets.
These are fringe issues. On Breeders' Cup day, half the screens in the racebook area had football games, so a lot of seats were filled by sports fans, who didn't move, pushing out horse players.
You had to search the top row of monitors to find the racing signals. It was worse on Sunday when NFL games were displayed on all the prominent monitors in the race book. You couldn't see and play, say Aqueduct and Santa Anita, because the sets showing them were so far apart on opposite sides of the room. Churchill Downs was isolated down in a corner.
Meanwhile some NFL games were on two or three monitors in the race book even though the sports book area has ample TV's to show every game.
The worst was yet to come. For more than an hour on Saturday, covering the second and third races at Santa Anita, the computers went down and there didn't seem to be any urgency to fix the problem. Scores of players were shut out.
Regulars said this is a common occurrence at the Orleans, due to antiquated equipment. Indeed. I bet a few games the night before I left. When I went down to cash in the â€ś24-hourâ€ť sports book in the morning en route to catching my flight home, they were down again.
Did I mention there are five restrooms spread around the casinoâ€”all a hike from the race book--and three went out of service for all or part of Saturday?
Las Vegas is still the greatest but the sour feeling of this weekend at the Orleans, which will be my last there, will not stay in Vegas.
Written by Tom Jicha
Thursday, November 03, 2016
A single on Friday and an audible on Saturday
Pick 3's are my bet of preference, especially when I feel strongly enough to single one race, allowing me to spread in the other legs. I zeroed in on such a horse both Friday and Saturday and neither of them is named Songbird or California Chrome. This strategy paid well last year when even with 1-2 Liam's Map in the middle, a very playable Pick 3 returned $117.50 for every $1 combination. Then a late scratch of Lord Nelson forced an audible.>
MIAMI, Nov. 3, 2016--Check out the BC Dirt Mile. You wonâ€™t find American Pharoah or California Chrome (Texas is not California).
The Triple Crown champion and season-long No. 1 in the NTRA poll are the only horses who have won races in which Dortmund ran and didnâ€™t win. This is why I see Dortmund as the safest single on Fridayâ€™s card; maybe the entire BC weekend.
This is like dĂ©jĂ vu. A year ago, I felt the same way about Liamâ€™s Map. He came through while overcoming adversity that only an exceptional horse could. The difference is Dortmund, who is ducking California Chrome and his stablemate Arrogate just as Liam's Map ducked American Pharoah, will not be 1-2, maybe not even odds-on. Thanks for this goes to the presence of Eclipse-winning sprinter Runhappy, whose connections opted not to have him defend his BC Sprint title. I made it clear last week how little I think of his chances to win his first race beyond seven furlongs in his debut around two turns.
If I was going to save, I prefer Vyjack over Runhappy in a trainerâ€™s play. Those in the East are familiar with Vyjack but perhaps not so much with his trainer Phil Dâ€™Amato. All you need to know about him is he is the left coast version of Chad Brown, the gameâ€™s next superstar. Everything the protĂ©gĂ© of Mike Mitchell sends out is worth a second and third look.
But I am not hedging. I am all in on Dortmund. I plan to use my favorite Pick 3 strategy, singling Dortmund and going deep in the other legs looking for an upset. It worked beautifully last year. With standout Liamâ€™s Map in the middle, a $1 Pick 3 including Catch a Glimpse ($14.80), one of two North American runners I used, and Aidan Oâ€™Brienâ€™s Euro shipper Hit It a Bomb ($16.40), the Pick 3 returned $117.50 for every $1 ticket.
The two races surrounding this yearâ€™s Dirt Mile could not be better for this. As usual, the Juvenile Turf and its filly counterpart are wide open due to a plane load of Euros.
A lesson I have learned at some expense over the years is itâ€™s folly to try to come to a definitive conclusion based on overseas form. Itâ€™s a different game over there, played on straightaways and right-hand turns on courses much softer than the Santa Anita pool table. Itâ€™s a question of which ones best adapt. So I throw them all in on at least one ticket.
So Fridayâ€™s ticket will start with Oâ€™Brienâ€™s pair, Lancaster Bomber, who has been chasing Euro standout Churchill, and Grade 3 winner Intelligence Cross, along with top North Americans Good Samaritan, winner of the Summer Stakes at Woodbine, and Oscar Performance, whose devastation of a strong Pilgrim Stakes field was the strongest grass performance by an American 2-year-old in memory. Alas, he drew post 13. Then again, Hit It a Bomb started from the 14 stall.
On the other side of Dortmund, a herd of Euros will force me to go really deep. Aidan Oâ€™Brien has two, Hydrangea and Roly Poly, and his son Joseph will attempt to one up Dad with Intricately, who I think is the Euro to beat. Iâ€™ll follow my own rule and throw in Euros Spainburg, Cavalee Doree and Madam Dancelot. I was really impressed by La Coronelâ€™s Jasmine runaway so sheâ€™ll be my lone North American.
Thatâ€™s a $28 ticket. If you want to swing for the fences, a Pick 4 with these and Songbird at the end will cost another $14.
A scratch changes things
As you might imagine, I produce this column about 24 hours before publication. This week, because I would be traveling to Las Vegas, I had it set on Tuesday.
Then I woke up Thursday morning to the disclosure that my Saturday single, Lord Nelson, has been scratched with an injury. So I've called an audible. I like these selections but not with the conviction I had with Lord Nelson as the key and a single.
Iâ€™ve already expressed my support for Florida shipper Three Rules in the Juvenile. Heâ€™ll certainly be on my ticket but this Juvenile is loaded with colts with star potential. So Iâ€™ll also include dominant Breedersâ€™ Futurity winner Classic Empire, who has never lost when he didnâ€™t throw his rider, and Not This Time, who Dale Romans thinks might become the best horse he has ever trained.
Because this ticket is relatively inexpensive, Iâ€™ll include Champagne winner Practical Joker and Front Runner Stakes runnerup Klimt, who had a much tougher trip than the winner Gormley. With Todd Pletcherâ€™s want-the-front pair of Theory and Syndergaard, there will be no easy leads for Gormley this time.
In the Turf, I canâ€™t go past defending champion Found, Highland Reel, who chased her home in the Arc, and Flintshire, North Americaâ€™s best. One thing concerns me about the latter. If you check his form, itâ€™s noticeable that he has a case of second-itis on the worldâ€™s biggest stagesâ€”the 2014 and 2015 Arc; Hong Vase last December; the 2015 Dubai Sheema Classic and the 2014 BC Turf.
I will go against my own Euro rule by leaving out Ulysses, who I donâ€™t think classes up.
I'll wrap up a $15 Pick 3 with Carina Mia, whose connections made the right choice in entering her in the Filly & Mare Sprint rather than the Distaff, which was under consideration. She won't run into three Eclipse winners in the shorter race. I mentioned in my previous column that I don't think defending champion Wavell Avenue is the same filly this year.
I guess itâ€™s incumbent to at least take a shot at the Classic. After what he did for me in the Travers, I have to go back to Arrogate.
I have other preferences but none I couldnâ€™t be talked out of, inasmuch as Iâ€™ll be spending the two Breedersâ€™ Cup Days in Las Vegas with the boss, who will have his mountain of research, and Paul Cornman. Life is good.
Written by Tom Jicha
Thursday, October 27, 2016
Build BC bankroll by beating these champions
The key to a profitable day at the races is to beat short-priced horses, whose odds over-estimate their chances to win. There are a half-dozen Breeders' Cup champions who fit into this category next weekend. Also, trainer Art Sherman is making a compelling case that it makes more financial sense to keep California Chrome in training for his 6-year-old season than it does to send him off to the breeding shed.
MIAMI, Oct. 27, 2016--The first step to picking Breedersâ€™ Cup winnersâ€”weâ€™ll do that next week after the post draw-- is to identify losers. That is, horses who, barring the unforeseeable, will not hit the winnerâ€™s circle.
Obviously, there are dozens of horses, many 20-1 and up, who can be tossed on Nov. 4-5. The key to a profitable Breedersâ€™ Cup is to zero in on well bet horses unlikely to win.
(My wagering preferences are win, daily doubles, Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. At the Breedersâ€™ Cup there are always more than a few boxcar-priced horses, who get into exactas, triâ€™s and supers. The ones I am drawing a line through are top end only.)
The low-priced throw-out of this season is defending Sprint champion Runhappy, the epitome of the expression â€śthrowing good money after bad.â€ť Jim â€śMattress Macâ€ť McIngvale, his eccentric owner, is one of the dozen dreamers who put up $1 million to buy a starting berth in the Pegasus. Runhappy is his only world class horse.
Alas, Runhappy is world class only up to seven furlongs. What will become the new worldâ€™s richest race on Jan. 28 is a nine-furlong, two-turn event. McIngvale is trying to force his square peg into a round hole. It is like Usain Bolt entering the Olympics 1500 meters.
Runhappyâ€™s only loss in his first two seasons of racing was a dismal ninth in the mile-and-70 yards LeComte, after which he reeled off six straight sprint wins, including the Breedersâ€™ Cup. With the Pegasus as the ultimate goal and the BC Dirt Mile as a stepping stone, McIngvale brought Runhappy back off a nine-month layoff in Churchillâ€™s one-turn Ack Ack mile. It was clearly beyond his scope as he ran a non-competitive fourth.
McIngvale is nothing if not stubborn, so instead of turning back to defend his BC Sprint title, Runhappy will continue his march toward the Pegasus in the two-turn Dirt Mile. This pig-headedness provides an opportunity for savvy players. Off his entire body of work, Runhappy will probably be well supported by the thousands of non-sophisticated fans at the Breedersâ€™ Cup. In my opinion, he will get nothing.
The lure of Pegasus' riches is also going to contribute to the further tarnishing of the reputation of Breedersâ€™ Cup Juvenile and Kentucky Derby champion Nyquist. Since the first Saturday in May each of his starts has been more disappointing than the previous one. He ran third in the Preakness, fourth in the Haskell and sixth in the Pennsylvania Derby, his losing margin increasing each time.
He is not the horse who won his first eight races. However, his owner, Paul Reddam, is another of those with a million dollar stake in the Pegasus, so he has been kept in training and, unless he embarrasses his connections, will go on to Gulfstream. He has no shot in the Classic but the magic of â€śKentucky Derby winnerâ€ť will keep his odds about half what they should be.
A couple of other defending champions look to me like solid bet-againstâ€™s. Catch a Glimpse, winner of the 2015 BC Juvenile Fillies Turf, appears to be on the downward arc of her form cycle. She had never lost in eight grass starts until this summerâ€™s Lake Placid at the Spa. It was no disgrace to be run down by a neck by Time and Motion, who has won five of six this year, the only blemish a half-length defeat by Catch a Glimpse in the Belmont Oaks. But the Lake Placid offered a small hint Catch a Glimpse wasnâ€™t the dominant filly she had been.
What came next solidified this notion. She ran an inexplicable seventh, beaten 10 lengths in the QE II. Her trainer, Mark Casse, said during a Breedersâ€™ Cup conference call on Wednesday that her dull effort was a head scratcher. He knew she was in trouble in the first quarter-mile. He told Florent Geroux he wanted her on the lead but the Frenchman had to put the pedal to the metal to get there, something that had not happened before.
Another sign all is not as it should be with Catch a Glimpse is Casse cross-entered her in the Turf Sprint as well as the Filly and Mare Turf, which everyone assumed was her destination. Casse said he just wanted to take a look at the two fields and he is 95 percent certain Catch a Glimpse will run in the Filly and Mare Turf. But the fact that he hedged even 5 percent is not a good sign.
It might be suicidal to dismiss a Chad Brown contender but I donâ€™t like the way defending Filly and Mare Sprint champion Wavell Avenue is coming up to this yearâ€™s renewal. Wavell Avenue went into last yearâ€™s race the right way, off a win and a close second after a troubled break. Since she has won only once in six 2016 starts, an ungraded stakes.
She had every chance to take her BC prep, the Gallant Bloom, but pretty much spun her wheels in the stretch. If you want to give her an excuse, it was over an off track, unfamiliar terrain to her. But then you have to explain her off-the-board effort in the Ballerina, when it looked like she was rounding to her best form.
The upside to bucking Brown is his horses get over bet.
If you want to make it an even half-dozen, Iâ€™m leaving out two-time Breedersâ€™ Cup champion Beholder in the Distaff. However, this one I do with less conviction than the others.
My thinking is Stellar Wind beat her on the square in their last two confrontations and had the tougher trip when Beholder got the best of her three races back in their series. So I canâ€™t make a case for Beholder beating Stellar Wind and I think Songbird is better than both of them.
More California Chrome?
The biggest news to come out of the Breedersâ€™ Cup conference call is that Art Sherman is making a case to keep California Chrome in training for his 6-year-old season. Shermanâ€™s logic is California Chrome can run for $27 million next year, far more than his potential earnings in the breeding shed.
Assuming what Sherman has in mind, he actually was a million short: $12 million in the Pegasus, $10 million in the Dubai World Cup and $6 million in the BC Classic. Granted, he would be running for only the winnerâ€™s share of those purses but this comes to about $17 million without taking into account any other rich races, such as the Pacific Classic, California Chrome could make.That kind of money will not be available to a first-year sire with a blue collar pedigree, no matter what his record on the track is.
"I think his 6-year-old season would be the peak of his career," Sherman said. "I would love to see him around that long."
So would millions of racing fans.
Written by Tom Jicha