Thursday, January 21, 2016
$12 million race? Why not $100 milliion? Neither is going to happen
Frank Stronach thinks big. It's one of his virtues. But he doesn't always think things through. His proposal for a $12 million race is unworkable in countless ways. Maybe it's just a distraction from the National Racing Club Sweepstakes 6 in Oregon, the worst idea ever inflicted on thoroughbred racing.
MIAMI, Jan. 21, 2016--Frank Stronachâ€™s ideas fall into two categories: brilliant and visionary or â€śwhat is he thinking?â€ť
Rebuilding Gulfstream as part of a vast entertainment and shopping complex and keeping the track operating year-round falls mostly into the first category. The track is doing magnificently, the bars and restaurants are doing mostly OK but the retail stores are struggling, largely because they are within walking distance of one of the grandest malls in Florida, Aventura. This should have been considered in advance but Stronach is a big picture guy, who rarely gets into details.
This is at the heart of the issues with his latest grandiose scheme, a $12 million race in January at Gulfstream or Santa Anita. He announced the idea at a Thoroughbred Owners Conference last week, part of Eclipse week at Gulfstream. Plaudits to him and the Gulfstream staff for elevating the Eclipse Awards from one night in a hotel ballroom into a week of festivities.
Maybe Stronach wanted to make a splash in front of potential new blood in the game or maybe he just wanted to steer the conversation away from the godawful National Sweepstakes 6 at his Portland Meadows track. It's astonishing that only now are racing officials beginning to realize that races with horses all owned by the same entity, Frank's son Andy, whose stated goal is to create life-changing jackpots, is not the best idea for the sport.
The $12 million race, under the terms he unveiled, has as much chance of coming to fruition as the twin hotels he promised to sandwich around the Gulfstream grandstand and the elaborate water theme park in the north parking lot. That is to say, no chance.
What would be the worldâ€™s richest race is clearly Stronachâ€™s attempt to top Dubaiâ€™s World Cup. But while the World Cup is funded by the black gold being pumped out of the desert sands, Stronach is proposing that 12 investors fund the event by purchasing shares at a million bucks apiece.
This would give them the right to enter a horse in the big race and share in 70 percent of any profitsâ€”Stronach keeps 30 percent-- generated by TV rights, sponsorships and the betting handle on the race. This is where Stronach went off the rails.
Peeling $1 million off a bankroll without knowing if you would have a horse good enough to race in such an event is not something a lot of horse people are going to be anxious to do, even with the opportunity to sell or assign the starting berth. Using the standard purse distribution model, a horse would have to run no worse than third in the projected 12-horse field for the shareholder to recoup the investment.
The purse would be the only means of recouping anything on the investment. The race would have to handle more than double the Kentucky Derby to generate the $12 million purse from the trackâ€™s share of the takeout.
Television pays a rights fee for the Triple Crown events because they draw millions of eyeballs. Otherwise, racing has to pay TV, directly or through guaranteed commercials, to get coverage. Scheduling would be a challenge with football bowl games and NFL playoff games dominating TV on most January Saturdays. No ratings, no rights fees and no big commercial rates.
This is also the period on the calendar when the previous yearâ€™s thoroughbred stars are laying up between seasons or have already headed to the breeding shed.
The gargantuan purse might induce some owners to keep a horse in training but luring a dozen worthy of a race with such an unprecedented payoff is more wishful thinking than reality. Forget Euros. Theyâ€™re back home hibernating in their winter coats. Itâ€™s more likely you would wind up with the equivalent of the Halâ€™s Hope for about 80 times the purse.
Stronach could make just as big a splash by bumping up the purses of the Donn Handicap at Gulfstream, the Big Cap at Santa Anita and the Pimlico Special at his Maryland property to $2 million apiece with a $6 million bonus for a sweep. This would have the added appeal of diminishing the big race in Dubai by keeping the American stars at home. Thanks to the worldwide collapse of the oil market, the World Cup might not be around too much longer anyway.
A classy show
Getting back to the Eclipse Awards, the industry can be proud again of the polished show race track people, most of whom are not regularly seen or heard on TV, presented. Jeannine Edwards, one of the few with extensive TV experience, has become to the Eclipse Show what Billy Crystal used to be to the Oscars.
She kept the show bright, breezy and moving despite not always getting cooperation from the winners. Immediately after she prefaced the presentation of awards by making a plea that winners not filibuster by thanking everyone they have ever met in racing, the first honoree went ahead and did just that. Thankfully, most of the other winners played by the rules. If they hadnâ€™t the show would still be going on.
The only segment that dragged was Jay Hovdeyâ€™s moving but long-winded tribute to Award of Merit recipient Leonard Lavin of Glen Hill Farm, who wasnâ€™t able to attend.
James â€śMattress Macâ€ť McIngvale was characteristically less than gracious in failing to recognize Maria Borell, who trained his Sprint Champion Runhappy to five consecutive wins, including the Breedersâ€™ Cup Sprint. His boorish behavior was a surprise only to those unfamiliar with him.
However, the enduring memory of the night is Team American Pharoah being summoned to the podium five times yet finding something appropriate to say on each visit. Classy horse, classy people, classy show.
No more free parking in Vegas
Horseplayer advocate and friend of HRI Andy Asaro alerted me to a piece in the Los Angeles Times that reveals a number of hotels on the Las Vegas Strip plan to start charging as much as $10 per day for parking.
The hotels that have come out in support of this plan are the Aria, Bellagio, Circus Circus, Delano, Excalibur, Luxor, MGM Grand, Mirage, Monte Carlo, New York-New York and Vdara.
I can see the higher end hotels, where pricing is not an issue with their well heeled clientele, getting away with this. However, I suspect the more moderately priced hotels, where prices are part of the appeal, such as Circus Circus and Excalibur will take a steep hit.
Other properties are undoubtedly waiting to see how this trial balloon floats before deciding if they will take part in this price gouge. Another factor could be if every hotel on The Strip suddenly, after free parking forever, decided at the same time to introduce a fee, they could be facing the mother of all anti-trust price fixing suits.
The only hotels who have said they have no plans to charge for parking, according to the story, are the Venetian and Palazzo.
This could turn into a bonanza for off-the-Strip hotels such as the Station properties, the Orleans and South Point (which is on Las Vegas Blvd, but well south of The Strip). Horse players especially could be expected to gravitate toward racebooks where there is not what amounts to a $10 cover fee.
This comes a few years after the furor over another consumer fleece, resort fees. These hidden charges, which range as high as $25 per day for things that used to be free, including parking, started at a few hotels and has now spread to just about all of them. I fear this will be the case with the parking fee as well.
Written by Tom Jicha
Thursday, January 14, 2016
Jackpot bets could bring the end of racing as we know it
First there was the Pick 6. This begot the Rainbow 6. Unfortunate byproducts of both were stakes races being moved out of their featured positioning because they had an overwhelming favorite or not enough entrants to bolster the number of possible combinations. The trend has hit rock bottom with a new wager in Oregon in which quality and form are undesirable. Horses unable to compete at mainstream tracks, conditioned by trainers who can't attract clients and ridden by novices, are racing in six two furlong dashes with the goal to build a lottery-like jackpot. If it builds the bottom line, the incentive to attract better horses with higher purses will no longer exist.
MIAMI, Jan. 14-2016--Thoroughbred racing Armageddon has erupted at Portland Meadows . It could be coming to a track near you.
The Oregon facility has created a new jackpot bet that (hopefully) brings chasing-the-dream wagers to their nadir. The de-evolution from Pick 6 to Rainbow 6 to now National Racing Club Sweepstakes 6 is hopefully complete.
Other pie-in-the-sky wagers were manageable through solid handicapping. The Sweepstakes 6 is all but impossibleâ€”by design. The idea is to make the races so difficult to handicap that you might as well just pick numbers, like playing the lottery.
This could be the least of the problems for racing because of the way the bet is constructed. Portland Meadows will run six races with 12 horses in each after its regular Monday cards. This, of course, is for starters. If the Powerball-rivaling bet catches on, itâ€™s 1-to-9 to become a daily fixture.
The horses who will be competing, the trainers â€śconditioningâ€ť them and the jockeys aboard them invite tragedy, which will tarnish the entire sport, even though the relationship of the Sweepstakes 6 and traditional horse racing is virtually non-existent.
The thoroughbreds, which have been purchased en masse by Portland Meadows, have been culled from herds of horses who can no longer compete even at the lowest claiming levels on regular racing circuits. In many cases, this means animals with serious infirmities, making them candidates to break down with their next stride.
The races for a purse of $3,000 will be two furlongs. Laymen might think the short distance isn't too demanding. In reality, the necessity to run hard every step puts more stress on a horse than longer races in which they don't have to run full-out for at least part of the trip.
These slow and broken down animals will be prepared by trainers having trouble getting clients. Someone who canâ€™t attract horses at Portland Meadows is probably a wannabe, who should be in another line of work. They will be ridden by novice jockeys trying to break into the game.
To summarize, a dozen horses on their last legs, trained by wannabes with unskilled riders aboard will break balls to the wall from the gate. I cringe to think of what might happen. The likelihood of carnage is so great, The New York Times might station a full-time reporter at the track. You can be sure PETA will be monitoring closely.
Bettors also will be taken for a debilitating ride. The track will assign horses to each race so that there are no obvious favoritesâ€”i.e., singles. The goal, of course, is to build an attention-grabbing jackpot as quickly as possible.
It shouldnâ€™t take long. If Portland Meadows can find 72 horses who can walk to the starting gate without breaking down, there will be almost 3 million possible combinations. (2,985,984 to be exact, according to my calculations.) With a base wager of 20 cents, it would take about $600,000 to cover the board.
The takeout is an outrageous 22 percent but thatâ€™s only the start of the horse player abuse. If there isnâ€™t a single ticket winner, 40% will be carried over to the next Sweepstakes 6.
For round numbers, letâ€™s say $10,000 is bet. The 22% takeout skims this down to $7,800 to be returned to bettors. Subtract another 40%--$3,120--for the carryover and only $4,680 is left to be paid to winners. Thatâ€™s an effective takeout of more than 53%. State lotteries are a bargain in comparison.
If, God forbid, the Sweepstakes 6 catches on, racing as we know and love it will be on a slippery slope to oblivion. Once tracks realize they can bolster their bottom lines by rolling out bottom-of-the-barrel horses for minuscule purses and fans will respond the way they do to Powerball, the incentive to attract better horses with higher purses will dissipate. Breeders should shudder.
We should have seen this coming once Grade 1 races started getting relegated to the early races on the card because they had an overwhelming favorite or a short field, both of which decrease the number of reasonable combinations in the jackpot bets.
Coincidentally, even before I became aware of the Sweepstakes 6 I was going to comment this week on where jackpot bets are leading. The catalyst was last Saturdayâ€™s card at Gulfstream, which introduced an early Pick 5 this season.
Gulfstream generally makes an effort to card races for the better horses on Saturdays. But this seems to be on its way out. Last Saturdayâ€™s sequence included a pair of $12,500 maiden claiming races and an open $6,250 claimer, which is where most winners of $12,500 maiden claiming races go. These are horses who are candidates to be bought and shipped to Oregon for the Sweepstakes 6.
To illustrate how impossible these races are to handicap--which is the idea--even with the Marshuaâ€™s River included and Sandiva winning at even-money, no one was able to pick five. There is no carryoverâ€”executives at Gulfstream are probably wondering how they let this happen--so four out of five paid $584.
This emerging emphasis on creating lottery-like payoffs over quality racing might be good for race tracks' bottom lines but they are bad bets for players and have the potential to sabotage everything there is to love about the sport.
Written by Tom Jicha
Thursday, January 07, 2016
Baffert pass makes things easy for California Chrome
The first anticipated showdown of 2016 won't happen this weekend. Bob Baffert has opted to keep Dortmund in the barn rather than take on California Chrome in the San Pasqual. This leaves only an off track and the effects of a 10-month layoff to hinder the 2014 Kentucky Derby champion. As for the 2016 Derby outlook, the big winner from last weekend's preps in New York and Florida was Mohaymen, who never left the barn. Flexibility, who tried him twice in vain, ran away with the Jerome.
MIAMI, Jan. 7, 2016--Dortmund has never lost a race that hasnâ€™t been won by a Kentucky Derby champion. Bob Baffertâ€™s newly turned 4-year-old is 8-for-10 through his juvenile and 3-year-old seasons. The blemishes came in American Pharoahâ€™s Kentucky Derby (Dortmund was third) and Preakness (Dortmund wound up fourth).
Make what you will of this in light of Baffertâ€™s decision to not run Dortmund against California Chrome in Saturdayâ€™s San Pasqual. Baffert made the call a day after California Chrome sizzled six furlongs in 1:10 last Saturday in his final work for his first race since last winterâ€™s Dubai World Cup.
Dortmund had what was thought to be his final San Pasqual work Sunday, seven furlongs in 1:25 4/5. Baffert said this wasnâ€™t good enough. He didnâ€™t like the way the newly turned 4-year-old finished, so he wonâ€™t run Saturday.
You have to wonder if Dortmund would have been kept in the barn this weekend if California Chromeâ€™s workout had been less eye-catching or his connections had decided to make his return in some other race.
On the other hand, Baffert canâ€™t be faulted for opting for discretion over valor. California Chrome looks like the only older horse west of the Rockies who can cause Dortmund any grief and the Derby winner is ticketed for another trip to Dubai. The San Pasqual is likely to be his only U.S. prep.
Once California Chrome heads for the Middle East, Dortmund should be able to gallop through the talent deficient West Coast handicap division without breaking a sweat. So why risk gutting him in his first start as a 4-year-old?
Moreover, the San Antonio on Feb. 6, Baffertâ€™s new target, has a $500,000 purse while the San Pasqual is only $200,000.
So instead of an attention-grabbing early season showdown between the nationâ€™s ranking older starsâ€”there isnâ€™t much on the East Coast at this point--fans will get what amounts to a California Chrome walkover in the San Pasqual and a Dortmund walkover in the San Antonio.
It appears the only things that can beat California Chrome are the layoff and the strong possibility of an off track. Weather forecasts are for Noah-frightening amounts of rain the next few days.
His main opposition is expected to come from Baffert second-stringer Hoppertunity, a hard trying colt who is simply not in California Chromeâ€™s class. They have met twice and Hoppertunity hasnâ€™t gotten within five lengths.
The other threat appears to be Hard Aces, whose main claim to fame is out-bobbing Hoppertunity in the Hollywood Gold Cup last June. He has been sixth in all three starts since.
3-year-olds get busy
Thank goodness for the 3-year-old division, which carries racing the first half of the year. Gulfstream and NYRA got right into action last Saturday with a trio of stakes on dirt for Classic age colts.
The only thing we really learned is Mohaymen, who stayed in the barn, might be everything he has been cracked up to be. Flexibility, who chased him home without impact in the Nashua and Remsen, demonstrated that when Mohaymen isnâ€™t around, heâ€™s a star in his own right. Aided by a pluperfect trip, he toyed with seven rivals in the Grade 3 Jerome.
There was speculation after the race that Chad Brown might ship him to the Florida sunshine to prepare for the spring classics rather than deal with the prospect of erratic winter weather in New York. Brown put this to rest for at least the time being. Flexibility will remain in New York and point for the Withers Stakes on Jan. 30, Brown said.
This is another example of discretion over valor. Jan. 30 is the day Mohaymen is scheduled to make his 3YO debut in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream.
Gulfstreamâ€™s two sophomore stakes last Saturday produced a couple of â€śAwesomeâ€ť victories. However, it did little to clarify the local Triple Crown picture.
Awesome Speed delivered as expected in spite of early trouble in the Mucho Macho Man. The mile was his longest route to date after three six furlong sprints. But he wasnâ€™t beating any budding stars and he still hasnâ€™t attempted two turns.
His breeding gives him license to stretch out. His sire, Awesome Again, won the Breedersâ€™ Cup Classic. His dam sire, Aptitude, was second in the Derby and Belmont and won a pair of Grade 1 stakes at 10 furlongs as a 4-year-old.
Awesome Banner, by Awesome Againâ€™s son Awesome of Course, might have been more impressive in running away with the six furlong Hutcheson. First time out in June, he shattered the Gulfstream record for 4 Â˝ furlongs. A bone chip in his knee, which has been surgically repaired, kept him on the sidelines until last Saturday.
Trainer Stanley Gold knew he had a nice colt but didnâ€™t know what to expect. â€śSometimes 2-year-olds run fast and they never come back to it.â€ť Awesome Banner came back to it. He dueled for a half-mile through respectable fractions then pulled away to win by almost five.
There was quality in his wake. Noholdingback Bear and Sheik of Sheiks, who ran second and third, finished one-two (in reverse order) in the Juvenile Dirt Sprint at Keeneland on Breedersâ€™ Cup weekend.
Gold is taking a patient approach. Rather than tackle the heavyweights in the two-turn, mile and a sixteenth Holy Bull, heâ€™s pointing Awesome Banner for the seven furlong Swale the same afternoon.
The jury will have to remain out on the filly companion stakes, the Old Hat, until we hear from the testing lab. Lucy N Ethel, shipping in from Pennsylvania, crushed five rivals. But she is trained by another of those Parx 30-percenters, Ramon Preciado.
A few days after the Old Hat, Preciado was hit with a pair of suspensions totaling 21 days and a $1,500 fine, which is a joke, for clenbuterol positives at Delaware Park.
One involved Trouble Kid, a horse who a little more than a year ago was getting beat for $12.5K maiden at Gulfstream, about as weak as it gets in South Florida. A month after Preciadoâ€™s claim in July out of a $15K maiden race in which he was beaten, Trouble Kid won an allowance by 9, setting a track record. This is the race from which he came back positive.
Trouble Kidâ€™s remarkable improvement continued when he won the Grade 3 Gallant Bob on the Pennsylvania Derby undercard, then the Valley Forge and finished first in the DeFrancis Dash only to be disqualified for interference going to the far turn.
The other positive was for Jake N Elwoodâ€™s 7 Â˝ length romp in the New Castle Stakes. Coincidentally, Lucy N Ethel is a half-sister to Jake N Elwood.
Preciado said last weekend, before the suspensions came down, her next start will be in the Forward Gal on Jan. 30. He will still be sitting out his suspensions that day. So if she goes, another trainer will have to be listed on the program.
Please hold your laughter.
Written by Tom Jicha