Thursday, February 25, 2016
Super over-used but it fits this Saturday
Gulfstream's Fountain of Youth Day is a rarity. It's worthy of the over-used superlative Super Saturday.The main event will feature undefeated Mohaymen's toughest test to date. But the card is loaded with other stars, including Cathryn Sophia, the East Coast's answer to Songbird; X Y Jet prepping for the Golden Shaheen; and the return of Divisidero,who looked like a budding turf star last season. On another front, the Kentucky Derby was included in a not-very-well-thought-out roster of 10 sporting events that have lost their luster.
MIAMI, Feb. 25, 2016--Super Saturday has become a ridiculously over-used superlative. A half-dozen state-bred races doesnât make a Saturday super. Then there is this coming Saturdayâs card at Gulfstream, the reason the term was coined.
The Fountain of Youth on its own would make any Saturday super. This yearâs is especially strong. Mohaymen looks like the real deal, one of those horses people come out to see. But heâs not getting a layup in going for his fifth win in an undefeated career.
A couple of Awesome upset possibilities should test him like never before. Awesome Banner is three-for-three by a combined 19 lengths, all over the Gulfstream strip. The question is will he handle two turns the way he has handled one?
Awesome Speed had a hiccup in his debut at Laurel. Since, he has reeled off three straight, including the Mucho Macho Man.
Ignoring an unbeaten Todd Pletcher 3-year-old like Zulu is a ticket to Bust Out City. Pletcher has come to Gulfstream the past two winters with unraced maidens, who left in April as Florida Derby champions.
What Songbird is on the West Coast, Cathryn Sophia is to East Coast fillies. But she better be that good in the Davona Dale. Carina Mia was second to Stageplay in her debut then broke her maiden and won the Golden Rod. Lewis Bay has an almost identical pattern. Second first time out, then a maiden-breaker followed by a score in the Demoiselle.
The great racing doesnât stop. Recently purchased X Y Jet, a winner of his last four, with the three in South Florida by more than 18 lengths, will tune up for the Golden Shaheen in Dubai in the Gulfstream Park Sprint.
Also Divisidero, who looked like a turf superstar in the making before going to the sidelines last summer, returns in the Canadian Turf Handicap. All he has to do is run down Heart to Heart, going for his fourth graded stakes in five starts.
(JP will handicap these races in depth on HRI Friday.)
Four other quality stakes will get completely lost. Not to belabor a point but this is a textbook example of overkill. Any of these races would have fortified last Saturdayâs single ungraded stakes program or another in two weeks with a couple of ungraded turf sprints.
10 not always a magic number
America loves lists and there seems to be an unwritten rule that they have to have at least a field of 10.
This forced RealClearSports.com to go to tortured extremes to come up with a Top 10 of sporting events that have lost their luster.
Some of the inclusions are inarguable: the Davis Cup, non-Olympic track and field, the Americaâs Cup, the Tour de France, the heavyweight championship, the National Invitation Tournament and the Army-Navy football game.
The difficulty the writer had stretching to 10 is obvious in the final two, the World Series and the Kentucky Derby. Expanded playoffs and games that end after midnight in the East have contributed to the World Series slippage. But to suggest the Fall Classic is no longer one of Americaâs premier sports events falls between ignorant and insane.
The logic offered for the Kentucky Derbyâs supposed loss of luster is another argument that the list should have ended with eight. The contention to support the loss of luster begins with the point that the Derby went into a television ratings decline in the late â70s.
Guess what? So did every show on television as cable expanded the viewing options in many homes from three channels to dozens and eventually hundreds. "Hill Street Blues," which I consider the finest broadcast network drama ever, wound up 87th of 96 prime time shows in its first season, 1981.
The rating--number of homes tuned in--today would make "Hill Street Blues" a Top 3 show, No.1 some weeks. By the way, the ratings for last Mayâs Kentucky Derby put it into the Top 3 among all programs that week, which fell during the important May ratings sweeps when every network trots out its glitziest product.
Live attendance at the Derby, 170,513. was the all-time record by more than 5,000 fans. Nevertheless the writer argues the Derby is not the institution it once was. What's not the institution it once was is thoughtful, responsible journalism.
As long as Iâm on the subject of stories that begin with a conclusion then seek facts to support it, there was one in the Bradenton Herald and other Florida newspapers that said Florida pari-mutuels seeking slots might be late getting to the party.
Slots are on the decline was the premise of the piece. A key point to buttress this was a marketing survey among the cherished millenials, 21-to-34 year-olds, which showed 21 percent took a theme park vacation last year but only 9 percent took a vacation âprimarily to gamble.â
Forgetting the fact that many in the 21-to-34 demographic are still paying off college loans and dealing with the expenses of establishing their own homes and families, which diminish disposable income, how many people are going to admit to a stranger that they take vacations âprimarily to gamble.â It makes you look like a degenerate.
I go to Las Vegas for a couple of weeks every year. But if someone I didnât know asked if I go primarily to gamble, Iâd say, âNo, I go for the restaurants and shows.â This is known as the socially acceptable responseâAKA, a lie.
The lack of thinking things through really jumps out in the statistic that 21 percent of millienials took a theme park vacation. What do a lot of 21-to-34 year-olds have in common: children! Letâs see how often they take theme park vacations when the kids are grown.
This story reminded me of a classic in a Dallas newspaper several years ago. Some enterprising writer discovered what he felt was a revealing statistic and ran with it without thinking it through. The gist of that story was that Dallas was known as a Bible Belt city but more people went to Las Vegas from Dallas than any other market in the nation.
The dots the writer failed to connect were that Dallas is a hub for American Airlines. So Las Vegas-bound travelers from around the nation connected to their flights to Sin City through Dallas-Fort Worth airport.
This is why it's said there are lies, damn lies and statistics.
Written by Tom Jicha
Thursday, February 18, 2016
Decoupling debate turning against thoroughbred industry
The Florida legislature appears hellbent to allow greyhound, harness and quarterhorse tracks to decouple their parimutuel activities from their slots and poker rooms. A powerful Florida legislator is proposing that Gulfstream and Tampa Bay Downs be given purse supplements as a consolation for allowing their competitors to become free-standing casinos. Gulfstream would be surrounded by 10 of them. As has been shown in Pennsylvania, Indiana and, only this past week, West Virginia, these supplements can be taken away as easily as they are awarded. The only hope for horsemen is to decouple the debate from approval of the Seminole Compact, the engine driving the bill.
MIAMI, Feb. 18, 2016--The war in Florida over decoupling seems to be slipping away from the thoroughbred side. Momentum is shifting toward greyhound, harness and quarterhorse tracks, who want to be relieved of their responsibility to operate pari-mutuels to keep their slots and poker licenses.
The latest indication came Wednesday. State Sen. Joe Negron championed an amendment that would give Gulfstream and Tampa Bay Downs $40-$45 million a year toward purses from the Seminoles and tracks that choose to decouple.
In an indication how settled the issue is in Negron's mind, he said he feels he has bent over backwards to satisfy thoroughbred interests. Negron isnât just another state legislator. He is the Senate president-in-waiting. Next year, he will rise to a position that will make him the second or third most powerful political figure in the state, someone who can bottle up or advance a bill at his pleasure. So he is not someone other legislators are anxious to cross, especially over a bill for which most of them have no vested interest.
The best hope left, a Hail Mary pass of sorts, for the thoroughbred industry to slow the decoupling express might be with a different decoupling strategy. It should strive to decouple the issue from the monstrous Seminole compact bill, the engine driving the process.Approval of the Seminole compact, which promises Florida $3 billion over its first seven years, seems inevitable. It should be.
This is a dropped-from-Heaven windfall for the state for essentially extending the status quo. The compact guarantees that the Seminolesâ seven casinos around the state will face no new competition with the exception of one new slots operation in Miami and another in Palm Beach.
However, there is no reason pari-mutuel decoupling should have to be a part of the Seminole compact deal. Decoupling is just a tack-on to an already mammoth bill.
If itâs not too late, the thoroughbred industry should emphasize that decoupling is important enough and has sufficient nuances to Floridaâs multi-billion dollar pari-mutuel industry that it deserves a full debate on its own, separate from the Seminole compact negotiations, the legislatureâs priority.
Among the negative ramifications would be rewarding Churchill Downs Inc. for obnoxious behavior at Calder. It will be able to keep its casino license without the obligation to have Gulfstream conduct an eight-week race meeting.
Another indication that the tide is turning came last week after a House committee meeting. Marc Dunbar, attorney for Gulfstream Park, said The Stronach Group is open to a deal similar to the one proposed by Negron. To that moment, Gulfstream had been adamantly opposed, at least publicly, to decoupling.
It appears Gulfstream realizes all is lost and is trying to salvage the best deal it can cut. Otherwise itâs difficult to understand how the company as a whole would benefit. Its slots and poker room would be surrounded by five competitors (including the new one) in Miami-Dade County; three in its home county Broward and the new slots operation in Palm Beach County.
Flush with cash saved from not having to support racing, Gulfstreamâs competitors would be able to upgrade their facilities and introduce perks Gulfstreamâs casino would be unable to match.
This is to say nothing of the Seminole Hard Rock, which has sweetened its pitch to lawmakers by promising to build a landmark guitar-shaped 800-room hotel if the compact is approved. Thousands of temporary construction jobs and eventually permanent hotel jobs would be created.
This will put Gulfstreamâs casino in the position of being like a 7-11 surrounded by ten Walmart Super Stores.
Floridaâs horse industry should have felt a biting chill in the midst of the decoupling debate. A proposal was introduced in the West Virginia legislature to allow Charles Town and Mountaineer race tracks to decouple horse racing from their casinos. The state wants the money that goes to thoroughbred purses to be redirected to the general fund.
If this proposal proceeds successfully through the legislative process, thoroughbred racing is almost certain to cease to exist in West Virginia within the next year or two.
West Virginia is part of a national trend. Indiana and Pennsylvania have redirected money promised to horsemen when casinos were introduced. New Jersey racing is in its death throes since purse supplements Atlantic City was supposed to contribute were eliminated. There are rumblings out of New York that Resorts World, which runs the casino at Aqueduct, is looking for ways to limit its future contributions to horse racing.
If Gulfstream and Tampa Bay Downs have to swallow this deal, they had better make sure the length of the agreement is in perpetuity or as close to that as they can negotiate. Anything less and itâs just a matter of time before the decoupled tracks and/or the state start looking for an escape hatch.
The South Florida racinos had barely opened their doors when they began bellyaching that their tax rate was onerous and they needed relief. Another element of the Seminole compact package will reduce their tax bite. The horsemen might not have access to the right ears but the casino people apparently do.
How long into the purse fund contributions do you suppose it will be before they complain that they should not be compelled to support what amounts to a competitor. Something Negron said indicates they will find a sympathetic ear in Tallahassee. âWe have generous purse pools that frankly are coming from people involved in another activity. Weâre taking money from them to subsidize people that want to race and raise horses.â
Clearly, someone on the cusp of becoming one of the most powerful lawmakers in the state, doesnât have a clue about how important thoroughbred racing and breeding is to Floridaâs tourism and overall economy. This in itself is frightening.
The war isn't over. Decoupling is still rattling around committees and is far from the finish line. United Florida Horsemen, a coalition of thoroughbred, standardbred and quarterhorse interests, isnât giving up the fight. It issued a statement on Wednesday saying it strongly opposes any form of decoupling whatsoever.
Separating the decoupling issue from the Seminole Compact negotiations appears to be the only hope to derail, or at least delay, what is increasingly appearing to be inevitable.
Written by Tom Jicha
Thursday, February 11, 2016
Super Saturdays wouldn’t be hurt if some stakes were spread out
Super Saturdays are becoming regular occurrences at Gulfstream. They're great. But in packing these cards with stakes, non-Super Saturdays are suffering. The next two weekends feature a six-horse stakes for older females and a five-furlong turf sprint for 3-year-old fillies. This is not what racing fans have come to expect from the prime winter meeting. In an unrelated matter, some of the sports biggest stars are pointing to the March 26 World Cup program in Dubai. They all race on Lasix in the U.S. but will race without it in the Middle East. So much for the argument that Lasix is essential.
MIAMI, Feb. 11, 2016--There can be too much of a good thing in racing.
Gulfstream has had Super Saturdays on three of the past four weekendsâtwo six-stakes cards and a five-stakes card. They're great. But fans, who enjoy serious stakes action every weekend, will pay the price the next two weeks as they did on the one Saturday that wasnât Super in the past month when there was only a single non-graded stakes.
There is only one stakes apiece on the next two Saturdays. This coming Saturdayâs Grade 2 Royal Delta has come up light with only six entrants. Next weekendâs solo stakes, the ungraded Melody of Colors, is a five furlong turf sprint for 3-year-old fillies.
It borders on foolhardy to argue with success and Gulfstream is having a dynamite season. This past Saturdayâs Donn Handicap program handled $20 million. So Gulfstream has the figures on its side. But couldnât we make these Super Saturdays just a little less Super and spread out the stakes throughout the season?
Would Super Saturdays be that much less Super if they had four stakes with an extra one or two reserved for weekends like the next two? Saratoga has Super Saturdays but there are still multi-stakes cards on the other Saturdays.This is Presidents Day weekend coming up, the busiest three-day tourist period of the winter in the Miami area. It cries out for an alluring Saturday card.
To give credit where itâs due, Gulfstream is trying to dress up its holiday card on Monday with 12 starter allowances. Despite a lack of advance fanfare, the dandy dozen drew an astounding 270 nominations, including several horses with stakes credentials.
With this kind of interest and support, letâs hope this isnât a one-shot deal. A couple or three starter allowances on Saturdays would be way preferable to the bottom level maiden claimers and beaten claimers, which have shown up with far too much frequency.
The scheduling of the Fred W. Hooper this past Saturday is the strongest example of over-scheduling stakes on Super Saturdays. Why stage a race for older horses on the same day as the Donn? The argument that the Hooper is a one-turn mile and the Donn is a two-turn mile and an eighth wouldnât score points in any debate.
These two races were essentially drawing from the same pool. Indeed, the Hooper winner, Tommy Macho, was coming out of four straight nine-furlong stakes. Runner-up Stanford had raced a mile and an eighth in three of his five most recent starts and a mile and a sixteenth in the other two. The Hooper surely would have bolstered the Royal Delta or Melody of Colors programs.
The Holy Bull card two weeks ago included turf stakes for 3-year-olds of both genders, the Sweetest Chant and Kittenâs Joy. They got lost that day but also would have added luster to the cards the next two weekends.
A little bit less on Super Saturdays could be so much more on Saturdays that are not quite Super.
No Lasix; no problem
Frosted set a track record the other night in Dubai. California Chrome is scheduled to have his World Cup prep at Meydan in a couple of weeks. Mshawish, who took the Donn, will soon be leaving for the Middle East. Keen Ice, who got what his connections wanted from his practice run in the Donn, is ticketed for Dubai, too. Lady Shipman, who ran away with the Ladies Turf Sprint on the Donn undercard, is also heading to Dubai for a $1 million grass sprint. Crack sprinter X Y Jetâs connections are still hoping for an invitation to a rich sprint on the World Cup undercard. Hoppertunity and Donworth are going from the West Coast to Dubai.
These stars all have something in common besides being pointed to the mega-rich World Cup program on March 26. They all race on Lasix in the U.S. but they will race without it in one of the biggest races of their careers next month.
Keep this in mind the next time you hear a horseman argue that Lasix is essential.
A different kind of bad beat
Bad beats come in all shapes and sizes. Iâve been suffering through one with my cable TV for almost a year.
I switched to AT&T U-verse about five years ago because it offered both TVG and HRTV. A couple of years ago, TVG was suddenly dropped. I was annoyed but I assumed this was one of those contract disputes I used to have to cover all the time when I was a TV writer. The one thing I stressed to readers was complaining is futile. Big business does what it wants, the public be damned. (AT&T U-Verse customers in the Miami area have been blacked out of the local Fox affiliate for about a month now.)
HRTV still had most of the major tracks, especially NYRA and the Southern California circuits, so I learned to live with the new normal because of the hassle that comes with switching cable providers.
Then TVG purchased HRTV. My worst fear was racing was about to disappear from my lineup, which has almost 500 channels.This fear didnât materialize but another disappointment has. Where HRTV used to be, I now get TVG again. But not the main TVG channel with the major tracks. I get TVG2, which is primarily devoted to lesser thoroughbred tracks and a lot of harness racing.
The races from Laurel, Tampa Bay Downs and Oaklawn are fine but not at the expense of being blacked out of Aqueduct, Gulfstream and Santa Anita. When Santa Anita is running on TVG, I get Flamboro Downs on TVG2.
So on behalf of racing fans nationwide, who have AT&T U-verse, I want to make a plea to TVG. As long as you are back on our system, is it too much to ask that you give us the main TVG feed? You would make a lot of friends among racing fans.
Written by Tom Jicha