Wednesday, May 14, 2014
If Not California Chrome, Who?
In my view, California Chrome faces a lackluster group of challengers in the Preakness. Only two horses who chased him home in the Derby, Ride on Curlin and General a Rod, are coming back for more, one of the smallest numbers in years. What's more, there are holes in the resumes of the new shooters. But there is a creative way to make a good score if he wins.
MIAMI, May 14, 2014--â€śLooking for a danger, canâ€™t find oneâ€ť is a pet Trevor Denman phrase for a race with a runaway winner. This also sums up how I feel about Saturdayâ€™s Preakness.
Like most horse players, Iâ€™m always looking to beat the favorite, especially in a race with the ego satisfaction of the second jewel of the Triple Crown. Maybe Iâ€™ll have an inspiration as post-time draws closer. But a few days out, I canâ€™t find a horse among those scheduled to run who can upset Derby champion California Chrome.
I would have loved to see Oaks winner Untapable take a shot but that isnâ€™t going to happen.
(I wonder if Steve Asmussen is gun shy about the attention running his filly against colts would bring. This wasnâ€™t a factor when he sent out Rachel Alexandra to beat Mine That Bird in 2009 but that was then and this is now. The uproar if anything happened to Untapable would be deafening, even though fillies routinely run against--and beat--the boys everywhere else in the world).
Actually, there will be a filly running against the males. Ria Antonia, one of the most mismanaged horse in years, is being thrown into the fray. Her problem is not that she is a filly. Itâ€™s that sheâ€™s a filly who has given no indication that she is good enough to have an impact on a race like the Preakness. She has gotten to the wire first only once in eight career starts, a maiden sprint at Woodbine last July. She got kissed into the Breedersâ€™ Cup Juvenile Fillies winnerâ€™s circle when an exhausted Sheâ€™s a Tiger bore out late.
Ria Antoniaâ€™s owners have been hell bent on challenging males since the Breedersâ€™ Cup. Their first target this year was the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds. Her then-trainer Jeremiah Englehart chose a more prudent spot; the Rachel Alexandra against her own sex, and she finished fourth.
That was it for Englehart. Next stop was the California barn of Bob Baffert, who got her to finish second in the Santa Anita Oaks. But after Ria Antonia ran sixth in the Kentucky Oaks, she was moved from Baffert to Tom Amoss, who agreed to enter her in the Preakness.
To make matters worse, Ria Antonia, as the only girl against the boys, will be seriously over-bet by drunks trying to score points with their girlfriends and women supporting one of their own.
California Chrome even has history on his side. Only three horses who did not run in the Derby have won the Preakness in the past 30 yearsâ€”Rachel Alexandra, Bernardini and Red Bullet. Taking nothing away from Bernardini, who went on to establish himself as a great horse, his victory was tarnished when Barbaro broke down shortly after the start.
Is there anyone who mistakes Ride on Curlin and General a Rod for Rachel Alexandra, Bernardini or Red Bullet? Between them, these Derby also-rans have accounted for one stakes this year, General a Rodâ€™s win in the one-turn mile Gulfstream Park Derby on New Yearâ€™s Day.
Iâ€™ve been saying all winter and spring that General a Rod is a game animal but I could not see him getting a mile and a quarter. I feel the same way about a mile and three-sixteenths.
Ride On Curlin, who was given a highly questionable ride by Calvin Borel in the Derby, almost always gives you a late run. He could pick up some minor pieces in the Preakness but heâ€™s zero-for-seven in stakes races.
Iâ€™d be tempted to take a shot with Bayern or Social Inclusion if one or the other wasnâ€™t in the race. But since they each seem to have one-dimensional front-running styles, they could race each other into the ground, a perfect set-up for the stalking California Chrome.
There seems to be no doubt that Social Inclusion, who appears to have the sharpest early lick, is going to the lead after his final work on Monday, a half-mile in a bullet 47 seconds. Baffert indicated heâ€™s going to a new strategy for Bayern, whose final work of 1:02 3/5 was atypically slow for Bullet Bob.
Baffert is taking off the blinkers, tipping his hand that he doesnâ€™t want Bayern dueling on a hot pace. Still, there is only so much you can do to harness a horse's natural tendencies.
If Bayern can be successfully rated he could be double tough. He deserved to be taken down in the Derby Trial but, if you watch the race and the gallop-out, you will see that Embellishing Bob and Myositis Dan were not going to pass him.
Even if Bayern doesnâ€™t go all out early, Social Inclusion should have company on the front end. Illinois Derby winner Dynamic Impact, Tampa Bay Derby winner Ring Weekend and Pablo Del Monte, who led the Blue Grass into the stretch, as well as General a Rod, are likely to be prominent early, although this could be suicidal for the lesser lights.
Every Preakness has at least one local shooter. This year, itâ€™s Kid Cruz although heâ€™s not exactly a native son, being based in New York. However, he did ship south to the Free State to win the Federico Tesio and Private Terms.
However, a Maryland spring-stakes winner who didnâ€™t start in the Derby hasnâ€™t upset Pimlicoâ€™s signature race since Deputed Testimony in 1983. But they do occasionally hit the board at generous odds and Kid Cruzâ€™s late-running style could be the right way to go if the early fractions are as hot as they figure to be.
Iâ€™m looking for the danger to California Chrome but I canâ€™t find it. Heâ€™s on top of my tickets with Bayern, Ride on Curlin and Kid Cruz in supporting positions.
The price on the Derby champ, even in exactas, is likely to be so short that there might be a better way to try to make a buck. Buy as many Belmont Stakes reserved seats before Saturday as your budget allows. If he wins, they will be like gold, shooting up in value because a Triple Crown will be on the line. If he doesnâ€™t win, you werenâ€™t going to collect anyway but the Belmont tickets, unlike losing pari-mutuel tickets, will still have some value.
Written by Tom Jicha
Friday, May 09, 2014
Derby Handicapping 101 Reminder: Keep It Simple, Stupid
LAS VEGAS, May 9, 2014--The 140th Kentucky Derby taught many lessons, the most important being don't ignore the obvious when handicapping the race. California Chrome was a standout and ran like one. Also, if you have never been to Las Vegas for a Derby, it's something to put on your bucket list.
So what did we learn from Kentucky Derby 140?
Sometimes the best handicapping advice is, â€śKeep it simple, stupid.â€ť California Chrome jumped off the past performance page as the most talented horse. Every prep seemed to be won by a different hopeful.
But California Chrome went into the Derby with a perfect 4-for-4 resume in 2014. The significance of Beyer Speed Figures are diminished or dismissed by some handicappers. This year, the Beyers were right on. California Chrome was what is known as a â€śdouble fig.â€ť Each of his last two races produced numbers faster than anyone else in the field had ever run.
Toss horses who winter in New York. If their connections had legitimately high hopes for them, they would be in Florida, Louisiana, Arkansas or California. Even two-time stakes winner Samraat commuted to Florida between his Big Apple scores. You canâ€™t properly train up to the Derby dodging blizzards. Gary Contessa, who trains Samraatâ€™s rival Uncle Sigh, said if he had it to do over, he would have taken Uncle Sigh to Florida.
The curse of Apollo is not a coincidence. Every year a herd of late developers, who didnâ€™t race as 2 year-olds, inject new excitement into Derby prep season. Last year, it was Verrazano. The year before it was Bodemeister. Going back a bit, Curlin and Pulpit couldnâ€™t beat the jinx.
This yearâ€™s crop was exceptionally loaded: Constitution, winner of the Florida Derby; Rebel winner and Santa Anita Derby runnerup Hoppertunity; Bayern and Social Inclusion, each exciting multi-length winners of their maiden and entry level allowance heats.If the hex was to be broken, this seemed like the year. It wasnâ€™t. It never is. The four outstanding colts didnâ€™t even make the field for one reason or another.
Keep this in mind next winter, especially if you are foolhardy enough to bet Derby futures.
The search for the next Derby winner starts the day after the current yearâ€™s Derby. Donâ€™t get sucked in. Enjoy the summer stakes at Belmont, Saratoga and Del Mar but donâ€™t put any stock in how they project toward the following spring.
California Chrome did win a state-bred stakes at Del Mar last summer but it was at 5 Â˝ furlongs and he came out of it to run sixth twice as the distances extended. Orb didnâ€™t break his maiden until Thanksgiving weekend. Iâ€™ll Have Another was sixth in the Hopeful and didnâ€™t win his first stakes until the following February. Animal Kingdom had only a late October maiden win going into his 3-year-old season.
Street Sense in 2007 is the only winner in the history of the Breedersâ€™ Cup Juvenile to double in the Derby. This is no longer a small sample.
Humongous betting pools on Derby Day make it the ideal situation for a betting coup. The California connections of a maiden named Masochistic might have made life-changing scores in the third race last Saturday.
The California-bred colt by $2,000 sire Sought After had raced only once, a fifth-place finish in a state-bred maiden race in March. That he had been shipped cross-country for an open maiden race, which paid only pennies more than he could have run for in a restricted race at Santa Anita, was the first red flag.
I had totally dismissed him during my night-before handicapping but my head was lifted when he opened an overwhelming favorite. Then the money continued to pour in. Masochistic must have made many horseplayers feel that way when he ran off by 14 lengths as the 2-1 favorite.
Derby Day in Las Vegas
Derby Day beckons almost as early in Las Vegas as it does on the Churchill Downs backstretch. Damn that three-hour time difference.
The alarm in my hotel room sounded the call to the post at 5:45 a.m. I knew if I wasnâ€™t downstairs by 6:30â€”an hour before the first race in Louisville--there would be no places available in South Pointâ€™s spacious race book. I might have to set the clock earlier next year. By 6:20 I was lucky to find a spot in a corner. Otherwise I would have had to wait in line for the 8 a.m. opening of the 800-seat Grand Ballroom and the showroom near the racebook, which is pressed into service for the spillover on Derby Day.
Only in Louisville is Derby Day bigger than Las Vegas. The difference is they donâ€™t rip you off in Vegas. Seats are free. Drinks are free. Forms are free. If you bet a decent amount, your meals are free. Bet enouigh and your room is free, too.
Churchill Downs did its best to screw this up. When the meet opened on April 26, the Nevada race books had not settled on a new contract, so Churchillâ€™s races were blacked out. In its customary greed, Churchill wanted to keep all or most of the new elevated takeout it inflicted on horse players. Nevada race books balked.
The only consolation is it was made clear the casinos planned to book Oaks and Derby Day, just like old times. This would have afforded me the double pleasure of betting the big days without contributing a dime to Churchillâ€™s bottom line, which is my plan unless and until the takeout is rolled back.
But a deal was struck on Thursday afternoon, too late for that dayâ€™s races, but in time for business as usual on Friday and Saturday. I canâ€™t tell you the satisfaction I got to read that all sources Churchill betting was down on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. You have to figure a lot of the shortfall was a result of the Las Vegas blackout.
I expect this was Part One of the lesson Churchill is going to learn this year: when you raise the takeout, you donâ€™t make more money, you make less. But you do make more enemies.
Churchillâ€™s cold-heartedness is boundless. Ron Turcotte won back-to-back Derbies with Riva Ridge and Secretariat before a 1978 racing mishap resulted in him being confined to a wheelchair. In the years since, Turcotte has been serving as an ambassador for the sport, signing autographs and chatting up Derby fans at the Racing Museum near the paddock.
A couple of years ago, Churchill pulled Turcotteâ€™s access to a handicapped parking spot. A documentary film maker, doing a piece on Turcotte, reportedly came up with $500 to buy a spot for him. (Churchill has no qualms about ripping off even the significantly disabled). This year, Turcotte was told he had access only to the museum, not to any place where he could actually see the race for which he and Secretariat still hold the record for fastest Derby ever.
Itâ€™s the same with horsemen. Rick Porter, owner of Normandy Invasion, who was entered in the Alysheba, was informed there would be no seats for him or any of his partners. Coincidentally, Normandy Invasion suffered a minor injury on the eve of the race and scratched.
The only antidote is for jockeys and owners to band together and decree that unless they are treated like the essential element of the sport they are, they will find other places to race. And players will find other tracks to bet.
Written by Tom Jicha
Wednesday, April 30, 2014
‘California’ vs. Team Florida in Derby
MIAMI, April 29, 2014--California Chrome is the one to beat for the Roses but he'll have to outrun a strong contingent that wintered in South Florida.
The 2014 Kentucky Derby comes down to California Chrome and everyone else.
The California-bred comes into the Run for the Roses with only one knock. Heâ€™s a California bred. No Cal bred has won the Derby since Decidedly in 1962. This might not be the equal of the Apollo jinx but it is a fairly strong non-recommendation.
Otherwise, California Chrome offers everything you would want in a Derby horse. Heâ€™s at the top of his game, a winner of four straight. From a couple dozen major Derby preps, only three horses have won twice.
California Chrome is one of them. (Samraat, the terror of Aqueductâ€™s winter track, and Vicarâ€™s in Trouble, who won the relatively minor LeComte before taking the Louisiana Derby, are the others.)
California Chromeâ€™s romps in the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby over superior competition outweighs those.
Although his breeding doesnâ€™t scream distance, veteran trainer Art Sherman says California Chrome can run all day. â€śHe has no wasted motion. A mile and a quarter should be no problem for him.â€ť The way California Chrome drew away in the stretch as the distances extended lends credibility to Shermanâ€™s faith.
California Chrome is tractable. He likes to race close to the pace but can take back a bit if Victor Espinoza decides this is the way to go. This could be crucial in a race in which the early fractions are expected to be hot and contested.
Heâ€™s also a great story, the first horse for an owner who bred him, with a trainer who has kicked around for more than a half-century. Racing could use a heart-warming antidote to the Steve Asmussen contretemps.
But most people like to try to beat the favorite so there are other places to look for a winner. I agree with something Mike Maker said during a Derby conference call. Maker, who will saddle Vicarâ€™s in Trouble, General a Rod and Harryâ€™s Holiday, acknowledged that California Chrome is a deserving favorite but added, â€śIâ€™m not sure the Florida horses arenâ€™t the strongest.â€ť
Indeed, Gulfstream-based 3-year-olds were potent on the Derby trail. Vinceremos shipped over to Tampa to win the Sam F. David. Ring Weekend, who has opted out of the Derby, took the same cross-Florida route to capture the Tampa Derby.
Intense Holiday went to the Fair Grounds twice. He ran over the Louisiana contingent in the Risen Star, with eventual Rebel winner Hoppertunity, in his
wake, then chased home Vicarâ€™s in Trouble, who fell into a dream trip on the lead in the Louisiana Derby.
Danza was still eligible for an entry level allowance when he shipped from Gulfstream to Oaklawn to upset the Arkansas Derby.
Wicked Strong was a disappointment in South Florida but shipped north to win the Wood Memorial and became the new darling of the beat-the-favorite crowd. This is based on the belief that all he needed was to get away from speed-favoring Gulfstream, where he had the only two out-of-the-money finishes on his resume. If the pace is as hot as expected, he will be running down a lot of horses in the long Churchill stretch.
Moreover, two of Gulfstream's best, Florida Derby winner Constitution and Holy Bull hero Cairo Prince, won't make the Derby but ultra game Wildcat Red and General a Rod will. There was no tougher place to win a stakes this winter.
Iâ€™ll use Wicked Strong in my pick 3â€™s and 4â€™s but I prefer Intense Holiday, who has gotten better with each race. He came south with a maiden win at
Monmouth, his only in-the-money finish from five starts as a 2-year-old. He immediately became Grade 2 placed with an OK third in the Holy Bull before
his two big races at the Fair Grounds.
All winter Iâ€™ve felt that Wildcat Red and General a Rod have distance limitations. I still feel that way but it wouldnâ€™t shock me if either hit the board for a minor share.
Danza got a dream run up the rail in the Arkansas Derby. He doesnâ€™t have Calvin Borel aboard, so how likely is that to happen again in a 20-horse field?
If the best horses were in Florida, those in California werenâ€™t far behind. As noted, Hoppertunity shipped east to win the Rebel. Then he ran second to California Chrome in the Santa Anita Derby. Candy Boyâ€™s poor effort in that race is a mystery but he was considered the best in the West until California Chrome emerged, so he has the talent to bounce back at a nice price.
Iâ€™ve discounted NYRA winter warriors Samraat and Uncle Sigh all season. Iâ€™ll either be vindicated or look foolish Saturday.
The same goes for synthetic specialists Dance With Fate, We Miss Artie, Medal Count and Harryâ€™s Holiday.
Ride on Curlin has been close in several stakes but appears to lack the punch to get the job completely done.
For the good of racing, letâ€™s hope that Steve Asmussen-trained Tapiture doesnâ€™t repeat his Churchill Downs victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club. The negativity an Assmussen win would generate would turn racingâ€™s grandest day into a dark one.
In multi-race wagers, I'll have a lot of California Chrome, a goodly share of Intense Holiday and Hoppertunity and a few small savers on Candy Boy and Wicked Strong. In exactas, I'll box California Chrome, Intense Holiday and Hoppertunity and put California Chrome on top and bottom of the other four I mentioned.
May the sun shine bright.
Written by Tom Jicha