Thursday, March 10, 2016
American tracks need to adjust big stakes to new Dubai reality
The Gulfstream Handicap offered a half-million dollars last Saturday to a field of less than top-of-the-line older horses. Santa Anita‚Äôs Big Cap is hanging out a million dollars this coming Saturday for a similar caliber field. America‚Äôs best older horses are in Dubai, where they will be every year in March now that Meydan has a conventional dirt surface. Gulfstream and Santa Anita need to adjust their stakes schedules to deal with this.
MIAMI, March 10, 2016--It‚Äôs time for America‚Äôs winter race tracks to recognize a new reality and react accordingly.
The Gulfstream Handicap last Saturday drew a field of seven. Four were from the Todd Pletcher barn and they weren‚Äôt the stable stars. The winner, Blofeld, now 4, hadn‚Äôt won since he was a 2-year-old. The only graded stakes win by any of the other three was Itsaknockout‚Äôs 2015 Fountain of Youth, courtesy of a much disputed disqualification. For this, Gulfstream put up a half-million dollars.
Saturday‚Äôs Santa Anita Big Cap, one of America‚Äôs most revered events for older horses, will get a few more but also is lacking star power. Effinex is the big name, a Grade 1 winner. The second biggest name is‚Ä¶Take your pick: Imperative, Hard Aces, Donworth, General A Rod, Cyrus Alexander, Melatonin, Point Piper and Class Leader. Any of these induce you to cancel other plans in order to get out to the track Saturday? Nevertheless, they will race for one million dollars.
There‚Äôs a simple explanation. America‚Äôs best older horses are in Dubai for the March 26 World Cup. This includes the top four older horses in this week‚Äôs NTRA poll--California Chrome, Mshawish, Frosted and Hoppertunity.
This isn‚Äôt an anomaly. Now that Meydan has forsaken its synthetic track (good riddance), it is a trend. Put up $10 million and offer a real race track and you are going to get America‚Äôs best year after year. It‚Äôs time for Gulfstream and Santa Anita to accept this and adjust their stakes schedules for older horses.
In a way, Gulfstream has already done this. The Donn, the new main stage for older horses, is run in early February, plenty of time to make it and the World Cup.
The Gulfstream Handicap has been diminished in prestige from the days it was the track‚Äôs premier event for older horses and reduced in distance from a mile-and-a-quarter to a mile-and-an-eighth to its current one-turn mile. The only thing that hasn‚Äôt been reduced is its purse parity with the Donn, which used to be its prep. (Extra points if you remember why the flip happened.) The two stakes are no longer close to equal. Dubai is the prime culprit.
The caliber of field the Gulfstream Handicap now attracts should be reflected in the purse. Any money saved could be used to fortify less well endowed stakes. There are six stakes the next three weekends with $75,000 purses. Take $150K from the Gulfstream Handicap and bump each $25,000 and they take on added luster. There‚Äôs still something special about the term ‚Äúhundred-grander.‚ÄĚ
Adjusting the scheduling of The Big Cap might be a tougher sell. It has been an early March fixture as long as I can remember. But something needs to be done if it‚Äôs to retain its status as a world class event. It needs to be moved up at least a couple of weeks to mid-February.
The San Antonio was run Feb. 6. Hoppertunity, arguably the best of Santa Anita‚Äôs weak older horse division, won and is headed to the Middle East rather than the Big Cap. Nobody is talking about a Big Cap-World Cup double.
It‚Äôs not as if racing hasn‚Äôt jettisoned tradition time and again. Remember important fall stakes each having its own day to shine, instead of getting lost on Super Saturdays. How about the Met Mile on Memorial Day? The Gotham, Wood Memorial and Kentucky Derby at two-week intervals? San Anita recently dumped the tradition rich Strub Series.
If the Big Cap doesn‚Äôt want to risk becoming the Mid-size Cap, Santa Anita must adjust to the times and re-schedule it so that owners and trainers don‚Äôt have to make the choice between it and the World Cup. As this year illustrates, this isn‚Äôt a close call.
Time is not on handicappers‚Äô side
Timing is everything in life and horse racing. Farz missed by about two hours last Saturday having the accolade ‚Äúformer Gulfstream track record holder‚ÄĚ attached to him forever. If the Gulfstream card had been reconfigured differently, he would have had it.
Farz, racing in the ninth race optional claimer for non-winners of one, ran a mile-and-three-sixteenths on grass in 1:51.81, almost a second and a half faster than the 1:53.19 standard going into the day. Unfortunately for him, Olordo ran 1:51.54 in the fifth race The Very One, a Grade 3.
Mark Berner, a former clocker at NYRA tracks, has written some insightful, well documented pieces for HRI recently on the inaccuracy of times on grass courses because of rail placement and run-ups. These two races serve as Exhibits A and B to underscore his points.
The rail was out 96 feet for both Saturday races. Maybe this explains the times for these two races being misleading jokes. Not only did Olordo make a shambles of the old record, the first four finishers were within two lengths, so they all broke the mark. The ninth race was a bigger Farz (I couldn‚Äôt resist). The first six were within three lengths, so they all eclipsed or almost equaled the old record, too.
The first place to look when multiple horses break records on the same day is the condition of the course. Gulfstream‚Äôs turf is hard but it was not a paved highway. Grand Tito ran a mile-and-three-eighths on grass in the Grade 3 Mac Diarmida in 2:12.55, almost two seconds slower than the course record. The likely difference: the rail was out only 24 feet. It seems to be impossible to get an accurate time when the rail is not at zero.
This is not meant as a critique of Gulfstream‚Äôs timing system. The same issues arise at every track with varying rail placements on the turf course. Ergo, there should be no recognition of any track record set when the rail is not at zero.
More significant for players, you can bet that at some point this spring or summer, a handicapper/analyst will note that Olordo set a track record in winning The Very One. Some of those who finished close might get similar praise.
Written by Tom Jicha
Thursday, March 03, 2016
The only breaks Florida racing gets are bad ones
South Florida racing should be riding high after last weekend's huge Fountain of Youth day, which produced a handle in excess of $24 million, and set up a showdown between undefeated Kentucky Derby hopefuls Mohaymen and Nyquist in the Florida Derby. However the good feelings are tempered by an outbreak of EHV-1 at Payson Park and the continued looming specter of decoupling as the last week of the Florida legislative session approaches.
MIAMI, March 3, 2016----Florida racing could be forgiven for assuming the racing gods have it in for it. Mohaymen's smashing win in the Fountain of Youth seemed to put the final piece in place for one of the most anticipated Kentucky Derby preps in memory, the Florida Derby showdown with undefeated Eclipse champion Nyquist.
However before there was a chance to savor the prospect, Florida racing got hit with a shot to the gut with the possibility of a follow-up haymaker to the chin.
The potentially devastating blow is the discovery at the Payson Park training center of a filly with equine herpesvirus-1. This necessitated an immediate 21-day quarantine of the facility and the approximately 500 horses housed there. This includes the potent strings of Bill Mott, Christophe Clement and Shug McGaughey
The impact on racing was minimal the first two days. Only one horse coming out of Payson was entered Thursday and Friday at Gulfstream. This weekend could be when the lock-in begins to take a toll. Clement had five horses nominated to The Very One, one of Saturday's tri-features, and reportedly planned to run two. He also had one for the Mac Diarmada. Mott had two eligible for this stakes, with one probable to run.
There are other stakes galore as the premier winter meeting winds down where horses from the Clement, Mott and McGaughey barns would be factors. Some of the upcoming Tampa Bay stakes also could lose star-power starters.
Also reports are Mott had penciled in the Honeybee at Oaklawn on March 12 for the 3-year-old debut of his outstanding filly Carina Mia. This will have to be delayed with the Oaks only nine weeks away.
Another downside is the reluctance of out-of-town barns to ship in for Florida stakes, fearful they could get marooned here if the quarantine spreads.
It's not just stakes horses coming out of the Payson barns. Clement, Mott and McGaughey runners fill the better class allowance races and MSW's, which fortify undercards. Moreover, these three are the big names. A lot of other top caliber horses winter at Payson. You won't find many $6,500 beaten claimers and $12,500 maidens.
The truly terrifying aspect of this situation, according to Mary Gallagher, general manager of Payson, is if another horse turns up positive for EHV-1, the 21-day quarantine clock starts again at zero.
In the best case scenario, this will be an isolated, single-horse occurrence and Payson horses will be eligible to race again in plenty of time for the stakes-studded Florida Derby card on April 2 as well as the plethora of big spring races at Keeneland, Aqueduct and Churchill Downs. The worst case scenario, a mass outbreak, is too catastrophic to even contemplate.
Then there's decoupling
The other prospective knockout blow is the continuing specter of decoupling, which would allow greyhound, harness and quarterhorse tracks and jai alai frontons to maintain their slots and poker operations without the obligation to continue their pari-mutuel sports. This would turn South Florida into a mini-Las Vegas. You could count on no hands how many race tracks have survived there.
Gulfstream and Tampa Bay Downs aren't included in the decoupling bill but Calder is. The end of the sham Gulfstream West meeting would be a good thing for racing even if it did reward Churchill Downs Inc. for bad behavior.
This ship hasn't sailed but the engines are fired up and the tug boats have pulled alongside. It's going to happen. It's just a matter of when.
The negative is it could also signal the end of racing at Hialeah forever. Not that many thoroughbred fans would mourn the departure of the quarterhorses, which are merely a gimmick to get slots and poker. However, as long as Hialeah was operating as a race track, hope sprang eternal for a thoroughbred renaissance.
An optimist might say that with the casino-sustaining Calder meet out of the way, Gulfstream could become amenable to a short fall boutique meeting at the world's most beautiful race track. The only good thing to come out of the Gulfstream West session is it served as a buffer between the summer and winter seasons and opening day of the winter meeting became an anticipated event. A short Hialeah session could do the same.
However, someone intimately familiar with the thinking at Hialeah said that John Brunetti's two sons are strongly opposed to spending the money it would take to spruce up the place for thoroughbreds.
There actually is more good news than bad on the decoupling front. A Florida Senate committee refused to take up the massive Seminole Indian Compact this past Tuesday. Decoupling has been attached to that bill as part of an omnibus gambling package. With the session due to end March 11, a consensus has emerged that nothing will be done this year
The hang-up is amendments that have been added to the Compact that would allow slots in six other Florida counties in addition to Miami-Dade, Broward and one new facility in Palm Beach, presumably at the dog track.
This is a deal-breaker for the Indians, who promised Florida a minimum of $3 billion over the next seven years if their monopoly on gambling in the state was guaranteed for 20 years. There also are provisions to allow the Seminoles to add table games, but the continued monopoly is driving the Compact.
The only thing more desirable for the thoroughbred industry than the status quo for another year is a status quo for many years. However, a well founded paranoia, justified by the many times horsemen have been screwed by lawmakers, has sprung up.
The fear is decoupling will be decoupled from the Seminole Compact and tacked onto some other non-related sure-thing bill at the eleventh hour next Friday. There is plenty of precedent for this, especially as it relates to pari-mutuel bills.
So while signs are more positive than negative right now, there is no relaxing until the hammer comes down on the 2016 legislative session and decoupling has been tabled until at least next year.
Written by Tom Jicha
Thursday, February 25, 2016
Super over-used but it fits this Saturday
Gulfstream's Fountain of Youth Day is a rarity. It's worthy of the over-used superlative Super Saturday.The main event will feature undefeated Mohaymen's toughest test to date. But the card is loaded with other stars, including Cathryn Sophia, the East Coast's answer to Songbird; X Y Jet prepping for the Golden Shaheen; and the return of Divisidero,who looked like a budding turf star last season. On another front, the Kentucky Derby was included in a not-very-well-thought-out roster of 10 sporting events that have lost their luster.
MIAMI, Feb. 25, 2016--Super Saturday has become a ridiculously over-used superlative. A half-dozen state-bred races doesn‚Äôt make a Saturday super. Then there is this coming Saturday‚Äôs card at Gulfstream, the reason the term was coined.
The Fountain of Youth on its own would make any Saturday super. This year‚Äôs is especially strong. Mohaymen looks like the real deal, one of those horses people come out to see. But he‚Äôs not getting a layup in going for his fifth win in an undefeated career.
A couple of Awesome upset possibilities should test him like never before. Awesome Banner is three-for-three by a combined 19 lengths, all over the Gulfstream strip. The question is will he handle two turns the way he has handled one?
Awesome Speed had a hiccup in his debut at Laurel. Since, he has reeled off three straight, including the Mucho Macho Man.
Ignoring an unbeaten Todd Pletcher 3-year-old like Zulu is a ticket to Bust Out City. Pletcher has come to Gulfstream the past two winters with unraced maidens, who left in April as Florida Derby champions.
What Songbird is on the West Coast, Cathryn Sophia is to East Coast fillies. But she better be that good in the Davona Dale. Carina Mia was second to Stageplay in her debut then broke her maiden and won the Golden Rod. Lewis Bay has an almost identical pattern. Second first time out, then a maiden-breaker followed by a score in the Demoiselle.
The great racing doesn‚Äôt stop. Recently purchased X Y Jet, a winner of his last four, with the three in South Florida by more than 18 lengths, will tune up for the Golden Shaheen in Dubai in the Gulfstream Park Sprint.
Also Divisidero, who looked like a turf superstar in the making before going to the sidelines last summer, returns in the Canadian Turf Handicap. All he has to do is run down Heart to Heart, going for his fourth graded stakes in five starts.
(JP will handicap these races in depth on HRI Friday.)
Four other quality stakes will get completely lost. Not to belabor a point but this is a textbook example of overkill. Any of these races would have fortified last Saturday‚Äôs single ungraded stakes program or another in two weeks with a couple of ungraded turf sprints.
10 not always a magic number
America loves lists and there seems to be an unwritten rule that they have to have at least a field of 10.
This forced RealClearSports.com to go to tortured extremes to come up with a Top 10 of sporting events that have lost their luster.
Some of the inclusions are inarguable: the Davis Cup, non-Olympic track and field, the America‚Äôs Cup, the Tour de France, the heavyweight championship, the National Invitation Tournament and the Army-Navy football game.
The difficulty the writer had stretching to 10 is obvious in the final two, the World Series and the Kentucky Derby. Expanded playoffs and games that end after midnight in the East have contributed to the World Series slippage. But to suggest the Fall Classic is no longer one of America‚Äôs premier sports events falls between ignorant and insane.
The logic offered for the Kentucky Derby‚Äôs supposed loss of luster is another argument that the list should have ended with eight. The contention to support the loss of luster begins with the point that the Derby went into a television ratings decline in the late ‚Äė70s.
Guess what? So did every show on television as cable expanded the viewing options in many homes from three channels to dozens and eventually hundreds. "Hill Street Blues," which I consider the finest broadcast network drama ever, wound up 87th of 96 prime time shows in its first season, 1981.
The rating--number of homes tuned in--today would make "Hill Street Blues" a Top 3 show, No.1 some weeks. By the way, the ratings for last May‚Äôs Kentucky Derby put it into the Top 3 among all programs that week, which fell during the important May ratings sweeps when every network trots out its glitziest product.
Live attendance at the Derby, 170,513. was the all-time record by more than 5,000 fans. Nevertheless the writer argues the Derby is not the institution it once was. What's not the institution it once was is thoughtful, responsible journalism.
As long as I‚Äôm on the subject of stories that begin with a conclusion then seek facts to support it, there was one in the Bradenton Herald and other Florida newspapers that said Florida pari-mutuels seeking slots might be late getting to the party.
Slots are on the decline was the premise of the piece. A key point to buttress this was a marketing survey among the cherished millenials, 21-to-34 year-olds, which showed 21 percent took a theme park vacation last year but only 9 percent took a vacation ‚Äúprimarily to gamble.‚ÄĚ
Forgetting the fact that many in the 21-to-34 demographic are still paying off college loans and dealing with the expenses of establishing their own homes and families, which diminish disposable income, how many people are going to admit to a stranger that they take vacations ‚Äúprimarily to gamble.‚ÄĚ It makes you look like a degenerate.
I go to Las Vegas for a couple of weeks every year. But if someone I didn‚Äôt know asked if I go primarily to gamble, I‚Äôd say, ‚ÄúNo, I go for the restaurants and shows.‚ÄĚ This is known as the socially acceptable response‚ÄĒAKA, a lie.
The lack of thinking things through really jumps out in the statistic that 21 percent of millienials took a theme park vacation. What do a lot of 21-to-34 year-olds have in common: children! Let‚Äôs see how often they take theme park vacations when the kids are grown.
This story reminded me of a classic in a Dallas newspaper several years ago. Some enterprising writer discovered what he felt was a revealing statistic and ran with it without thinking it through. The gist of that story was that Dallas was known as a Bible Belt city but more people went to Las Vegas from Dallas than any other market in the nation.
The dots the writer failed to connect were that Dallas is a hub for American Airlines. So Las Vegas-bound travelers from around the nation connected to their flights to Sin City through Dallas-Fort Worth airport.
This is why it's said there are lies, damn lies and statistics.
Written by Tom Jicha