Thursday, January 07, 2016
Baffert pass makes things easy for California Chrome
The first anticipated showdown of 2016 won't happen this weekend. Bob Baffert has opted to keep Dortmund in the barn rather than take on California Chrome in the San Pasqual. This leaves only an off track and the effects of a 10-month layoff to hinder the 2014 Kentucky Derby champion. As for the 2016 Derby outlook, the big winner from last weekend's preps in New York and Florida was Mohaymen, who never left the barn. Flexibility, who tried him twice in vain, ran away with the Jerome.
MIAMI, Jan. 7, 2016--Dortmund has never lost a race that hasnât been won by a Kentucky Derby champion. Bob Baffertâs newly turned 4-year-old is 8-for-10 through his juvenile and 3-year-old seasons. The blemishes came in American Pharoahâs Kentucky Derby (Dortmund was third) and Preakness (Dortmund wound up fourth).
Make what you will of this in light of Baffertâs decision to not run Dortmund against California Chrome in Saturdayâs San Pasqual. Baffert made the call a day after California Chrome sizzled six furlongs in 1:10 last Saturday in his final work for his first race since last winterâs Dubai World Cup.
Dortmund had what was thought to be his final San Pasqual work Sunday, seven furlongs in 1:25 4/5. Baffert said this wasnât good enough. He didnât like the way the newly turned 4-year-old finished, so he wonât run Saturday.
You have to wonder if Dortmund would have been kept in the barn this weekend if California Chromeâs workout had been less eye-catching or his connections had decided to make his return in some other race.
On the other hand, Baffert canât be faulted for opting for discretion over valor. California Chrome looks like the only older horse west of the Rockies who can cause Dortmund any grief and the Derby winner is ticketed for another trip to Dubai. The San Pasqual is likely to be his only U.S. prep.
Once California Chrome heads for the Middle East, Dortmund should be able to gallop through the talent deficient West Coast handicap division without breaking a sweat. So why risk gutting him in his first start as a 4-year-old?
Moreover, the San Antonio on Feb. 6, Baffertâs new target, has a $500,000 purse while the San Pasqual is only $200,000.
So instead of an attention-grabbing early season showdown between the nationâs ranking older starsâthere isnât much on the East Coast at this point--fans will get what amounts to a California Chrome walkover in the San Pasqual and a Dortmund walkover in the San Antonio.
It appears the only things that can beat California Chrome are the layoff and the strong possibility of an off track. Weather forecasts are for Noah-frightening amounts of rain the next few days.
His main opposition is expected to come from Baffert second-stringer Hoppertunity, a hard trying colt who is simply not in California Chromeâs class. They have met twice and Hoppertunity hasnât gotten within five lengths.
The other threat appears to be Hard Aces, whose main claim to fame is out-bobbing Hoppertunity in the Hollywood Gold Cup last June. He has been sixth in all three starts since.
3-year-olds get busy
Thank goodness for the 3-year-old division, which carries racing the first half of the year. Gulfstream and NYRA got right into action last Saturday with a trio of stakes on dirt for Classic age colts.
The only thing we really learned is Mohaymen, who stayed in the barn, might be everything he has been cracked up to be. Flexibility, who chased him home without impact in the Nashua and Remsen, demonstrated that when Mohaymen isnât around, heâs a star in his own right. Aided by a pluperfect trip, he toyed with seven rivals in the Grade 3 Jerome.
There was speculation after the race that Chad Brown might ship him to the Florida sunshine to prepare for the spring classics rather than deal with the prospect of erratic winter weather in New York. Brown put this to rest for at least the time being. Flexibility will remain in New York and point for the Withers Stakes on Jan. 30, Brown said.
This is another example of discretion over valor. Jan. 30 is the day Mohaymen is scheduled to make his 3YO debut in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream.
Gulfstreamâs two sophomore stakes last Saturday produced a couple of âAwesomeâ victories. However, it did little to clarify the local Triple Crown picture.
Awesome Speed delivered as expected in spite of early trouble in the Mucho Macho Man. The mile was his longest route to date after three six furlong sprints. But he wasnât beating any budding stars and he still hasnât attempted two turns.
His breeding gives him license to stretch out. His sire, Awesome Again, won the Breedersâ Cup Classic. His dam sire, Aptitude, was second in the Derby and Belmont and won a pair of Grade 1 stakes at 10 furlongs as a 4-year-old.
Awesome Banner, by Awesome Againâs son Awesome of Course, might have been more impressive in running away with the six furlong Hutcheson. First time out in June, he shattered the Gulfstream record for 4 Â˝ furlongs. A bone chip in his knee, which has been surgically repaired, kept him on the sidelines until last Saturday.
Trainer Stanley Gold knew he had a nice colt but didnât know what to expect. âSometimes 2-year-olds run fast and they never come back to it.â Awesome Banner came back to it. He dueled for a half-mile through respectable fractions then pulled away to win by almost five.
There was quality in his wake. Noholdingback Bear and Sheik of Sheiks, who ran second and third, finished one-two (in reverse order) in the Juvenile Dirt Sprint at Keeneland on Breedersâ Cup weekend.
Gold is taking a patient approach. Rather than tackle the heavyweights in the two-turn, mile and a sixteenth Holy Bull, heâs pointing Awesome Banner for the seven furlong Swale the same afternoon.
The jury will have to remain out on the filly companion stakes, the Old Hat, until we hear from the testing lab. Lucy N Ethel, shipping in from Pennsylvania, crushed five rivals. But she is trained by another of those Parx 30-percenters, Ramon Preciado.
A few days after the Old Hat, Preciado was hit with a pair of suspensions totaling 21 days and a $1,500 fine, which is a joke, for clenbuterol positives at Delaware Park.
One involved Trouble Kid, a horse who a little more than a year ago was getting beat for $12.5K maiden at Gulfstream, about as weak as it gets in South Florida. A month after Preciadoâs claim in July out of a $15K maiden race in which he was beaten, Trouble Kid won an allowance by 9, setting a track record. This is the race from which he came back positive.
Trouble Kidâs remarkable improvement continued when he won the Grade 3 Gallant Bob on the Pennsylvania Derby undercard, then the Valley Forge and finished first in the DeFrancis Dash only to be disqualified for interference going to the far turn.
The other positive was for Jake N Elwoodâs 7 Â˝ length romp in the New Castle Stakes. Coincidentally, Lucy N Ethel is a half-sister to Jake N Elwood.
Preciado said last weekend, before the suspensions came down, her next start will be in the Forward Gal on Jan. 30. He will still be sitting out his suspensions that day. So if she goes, another trainer will have to be listed on the program.
Please hold your laughter.
Written by Tom Jicha
Thursday, December 31, 2015
Clearing the decks for a new year
Wishes for 2016: Horses who run more often; another big horse for Jim Rome; a return to the races for Lady Eli; lower minimum bets; Breeders' Cup telling Churchill Downs no; NYRA being re-privatized--and those are just for starters.
MIAMI, Dec. 31, 2015--What better time than the last day of the year to clear my chest in order to start 2016 with a clean slate. The opinions expressed are mine and do not necessarily reflect those of John Pricci (who thinks some of them are nuts) or Horse Race Insider.
To develop a thread that began in the comments section of J.P.âs Tuesday column, I believe overly conservative trainers are almost as detrimental to the game as other more prominently debated issues.
The latest catalyst for a point-counterpart between J.P. and I was Best Behavior coming back in only two weeks to win last Saturdayâs Sugar Swirl Stakes. Every time this happens I point it out to J.P. and he always counters itâs the exception that makes the rule.
I concede not every horse can do this but weâll never know how many can because few are given the opportunity. It seems to me that a disproportionate number, who are given the chance, come up big.
The dwindling foal crop is a regularly discussed concern. A big reason there are fewer foals is there are fewer prospective owners to buy them.
Why isnât a mystery. The joy of owning a thoroughbred is seeing your horse compete in your silks. There isnât a lot of joy when horses race only six or seven times a year, while per diems pile up, which has become the new normal.
I understand injuries have something to do with this. However. trainers, who tend to be a monkey-see, monkey-do bunch bear much of the responsibility.
I contend if horses were put on a two-to-three week racing regimen, they would get used to it and most would respond well. More starts would mean more fun and purses for owners. This would encourage more people to get into the game. Inevitably, the supply of foals would rise up to meet the demand.
More final 2015 thoughts
has been retired for two months yet he still dominates sports news with the controversy over Sports Illustrated and the Associated Pressâ Sports Person of the Year selections. It might be contrarian in racing circles but the wire service and Sports Illustrated got it right in passing over American Pharoah for their human awards while designating his Triple Crown sweep as the sports story of the year.
How about that? A story from âa dying sportâ outranks everything else in the world of sports.
The sudden death
of Shared Belief might be a bigger blow to racing than the retirement of American Pharoah, which everyone saw coming. As a gelding Shared Belief could have thrilled fans for years as, in my opinion, the best horse in the world. Whatâs more, having Jim Rome talking him up to young people not tuned in to racing could have provided an incalculable boost to the sport.
Letâs hope âRomeyâ gets another good one ASAP. The filly Stays in Vegas might be the one.
The feel good story
of the year has to be Lady Eliâs recovery from often fatal laminitis. That one of the most talented female grass runners in years survived is heartening. The possibility that she could return to the races borders on miraculous.
doesnât fool around. The racing association almost had to cancel races one day recently because so many jockeys were serving suspensions, they didnât have enough riders for all the entrants. I guess thatâs the other extreme from Americaâs often see-no-evil stewards. Is a happy medium possible?
Some people never learn
. California Chrome went to the sidelines for nine months after shipping to Dubai off one prep last year. Oblivious to the definition of crazy, his connections are gearing him up for another jaunt to the Middle East after one Santa Anita prep.
Speaking of lessons unlearned
, Santa Anita had to dig into its own pockets to make the $150K Pick 6 guarantee this past Sunday. The $2 minimum bet produced only $143,158. Meanwhile, the 50-cent minimum Pick 4 attracted a pool of $841,567. When will tracks realize that the future of the game as well as an entry point for newcomers is low minimum bets?
sudden âretirementâ from Santa Anita while expressing his intent to keep calling races at Del Mar indicates to me that there will be at least one juicy chapter when he gets around to writing his book.
How cold is it
for Santa Anita to make veteran race-callers Frank Mirahmadi and Michael Wrona go through extended public auditions to replace Denman while letting it be known the track is looking hard for someone else?
On a more positive note
, it was nice to see Pete Aiello, Gulfstreamâs summer race-caller, get the Oaklawn job. Aiello, a good guy, is one of the young comers in the business.
and Keeneland are both expected to bid for the 2018 Breedersâ Cup, the next one without a host site chosen. This should be as easy a decision as American Pharoahâs Triple Crown for NTRA Moment of the Year. Keeneland, by all accounts, did a magnificent job this past fall. Churchill Downs continues to undermine racing all but two days a year. To reward it for its bad behavior would be inexcusable.
An administrative law judgeâs
recommendation that Kirk Ziadie be barred for six years for countless drug violations is long overdue. Ziadie was barred from Calder from 2009-2011. Why he was allowed back is a mystery but he was soon winning again at a clip that defied belief. I gave up trying to beat him long ago. If he had a horse in a race, I either bet him or passed.
The Kentucky Attorney General's
ruling that Keeneland cannot card races for horses competing without Lasix once again makes the point that those trying to get the anti-bleeding medication barred are engaged in an exercise of futility. It isnât going to happen. You can have all the Barr-Tomko bills Congress can pass but as long as horsemen retain the right to control simulcasting, there never will be anything meaningful done about race day medications.
2016 will be the year when NYRA is finally returned to private ownership?
Happy New Year!
Written by Tom Jicha
Thursday, December 24, 2015
Big horses create little Eclipse suspense
Merry Christmas! A ritual for racing writers right around the holidays is the arrival of the Eclipse ballots. Thanks to American Pharoah and some other special horses, identifying the best of the best was a sprint rather than a marathon. Meanwhile, NYRA will wait until the day after Christmas to spring what likely will be the first of many unpleasant surprises on its fans.
MIAMI, Dec. 24, 2015--The Democratic Party presidential nominating process has more suspense than the top of the Eclipse Awards. Hillary Clinton might be a virtual certainty to represent the Dems but American Pharoah is an absolute lock to be Horse of the Year.
Team American Pharoah is going to be called to the Eclipse podium so often on Jan. 16 at Gulfstream Park that TVG ought to ask that their table be moved to the stage to save the walk-up time.
The Eclipse ballots arrived this week and if the Horse of the Year vote isnât unanimous, those who donât write down the first Triple Crown winner in 38 years ought to lose their vote. This would be such an act of irresponsibility, the Eclipse vote should no longer be entrusted to any such person.
The 3-year-old title is another formality.
Ahmed Zayat also is odds-on for the ownerâs Eclipse for his decision to expose American Pharoah to his adoring fans as much as possible.
Bob Baffert is a short price, too, as outstanding trainer. It should not be overlooked that he had to nurse American Pharoah back from an injury, which prematurely ended his juvenile season. Baffert exhibited extreme patience in waiting until mid-March before putting American Pharoah on the Triple Crown trail.
Baffert didnât really want to go to the Travers but he acceded to Zayat. Some felt American Pharoah was over the top when Keen Ice nailed him in the final strides. However, Baffert saved the best for last. American Pharoahâs Breedersâ Cup Classic, his first try against older horses, might have been his most impressive race of all. It was by far his fastest, according to the Beyer Figs.
Iâll jump off the American Pharoah bandwagon when it comes to outstanding jockey. Victor Espinoza did a superb job steering and not falling off American Pharoah. Otherwise, Espinoza wound up only sixth in purse money and unless he goes nuts the first week of Santa Anita, he wonât make 100 wins. âThe Dancing With the Starsâ sabbatical didnât help.
Javier Castellano won almost four times as many races and twice as much money. He gets my vote.
Some other major categories also are cut and dried. If someone offered me a free $100 Kentucky Derby futures bet, Iâd put the money on Remsen winner Mohaymen. However, thereâs no denying Nyquist the Juvenile Eclipse. He is undefeated in five starts, three Grade 1âs, one of them the nominal championship race, the BC Juvenile.
Songbird is at one level and everyone else is several levels below in the Juvenile Fillies division. No one has been able to warm her up in four starts, three Grade 1âs, including the BC Juvenile Fillies. Her dominance and flair was such that if there was no American Pharoah, a case could be made for her as Horse of the Year.
The older filly or mare category is another slam dunk although it bothers me that Beholder will take home her third Eclipse without ever winning a race outside Southern California. With the Breedersâ Cup at Santa Anita in 2016, she could make it a four-bagger without crossing the Rockies. Maybe sheâll stay healthy and, with home court advantage, take on the boys in the Classic.
The 3-year-old filly category is as tough as the previous ones mentioned are easy. Lovely Maria won the big one, the Kentucky Oaks, then failed to hit the board in three subsequent starts. Iâm a Chatterbox was solid from January through September but went south at the Breedersâ Cup. Stellar Windâs only poor race was in the Oaks when she was stuck out in the 12 post. She fired big at the Breedersâ Cup, just missing against the crack older mare Stopchargingmaria. She gets my vote.
The new best Older Male Dirt Horse category is a closer call than many are making it out to be. It will probably be settled by a neck, the margin Honor Code had over Liamâs Map in the Whitney. Both won three times with a pair of Grade 1âs. Liamâs Map did it from four starts. It took Honor Code six. Liamâs Map also won a Breedersâ Cup race, the Dirt Mile, while Honor Code ran third in the Classic, a tougher assignment. I think Liam's Map was the better horse but if opinions were results, we'd all cash every race. I'll honor what took place on the track in the Whitney and go with Honor Code.
Tonalist is expected to be third on many ballots. Not mine. Iâm backing the late Shared Belief, who I still believe was the best older horse in the nation, maybe the world. His San Antonio vanquishing of California Chrome then his demolishment of the field in the Big Cap are all the justification I need.
Weâve been spoiled the past few years in the Male Turf division with Wise Dan and Main Sequence. This is a year for settling for an accomplished horse, Big Blue Kitten, who always showed up, but didnât set any pulses to racing. He won three, two Grade 1âs, and hit the board in all six starts.
The filly and mare counterpart comes down to two main contenders, Stephanieâs Kitten and Tepin. Both won Breedersâ Cup events but Tepinâs was against males and she was five-for-seven to the Kittenâs three-for-six. Thatâs enough for Tepin to merit the gold.
I absolutely refuse to vote for a one-start Euro in any category. This is why Found will not be found on my ballot and I also omitted Flintshire, whose Sword Dancer was arguably the yearâs most impressive race by a male turfer. If we judged all categories on one big race, Keen Ice could be the 3-year-old champion.
The Eclipse Awards has asked voters to wait for the outcome of the Malibu and LaBrea this Saturday before casting ballots for Male and Female Sprinter. Iâll honor that request even though it would take something extraordinary happening to get me off Runhappy and Cavorting.
I wouldnât raise my voice in protest if the Female Sprinter Eclipse was eliminated.
Ominous portents at NYRA
NYRA boss Christopher Kay, taking a victory lap for showing a profit in 2015, promised NYRA would be even more profitable in 2016. Early indications are he plans to accomplish this not off improved attendance and handle but on the backs of fans.
NYRA has already announced programs will be kicked up a dollar. Kay also said there will be further price increases for Belmont Stakes Day. (Someone should tell him there wonât be a Triple Crown possibility every year. Absent that, 90,000 becomes 60,000âif the weather is good.)
The latest soak-the-fans ploy is an avaricious disgrace that I would bet will be counter-productive.
For years, free racing calendars have been an enticement to fans to come to the races during the holidays. Santa Anita gives away calendars on Dec. 26, the start of its winter season. Gulfstream distributed the 2016 model on Dec. 5, opening day of its championship season.
This year, NYRA is charging $3 for the calendar on Saturday, $5 every day thereafter...while the supply lasts. So calendars should still be available on opening day at the Spa.
Written by Tom Jicha