Thursday, June 03, 2010

Belmont Stakes 142: Form Prevails

ELMONT, NEW YORK, June 3, 2010--In this year’s Kentucky Derby, much of the pre-race handicapping analysis centered around the fact that was way too much early speed signed on. Then it rained a sea of slop, and the problem was exacerbated.

That’s not at issue in Belmont 142 on Saturday. Given the recent Preakness results, it would appear, on paper at least, that Preakness pacesetter First Dude could be in front all by his lonesome, rain or shine.

Of course, none of his rivals would want him to get away with that, especially not after the grit he demonstrated at Pimlico. At today’s longer distance, and with his pedigree, conventional handicapping wisdom says he’s long, long gone.

The problem for his rivals who don’t wish to see him loose on the lead is which will be the one to step up, willing to keep him honest? They know that if they do, it could be at their own peril. Suicide on horseback.

The problem for Belmont handicappers is deciding how this virtually paceless early speed scenario plays out, and whether the biggest equine this side of Zenyatta will have any fuel left in the tank given his considerable Preakness exertions.

Everything I know about Equiform performance figures indicates that First Dude must regress off the Preakness. However, his performance figure was so clearly superior that he may be able to regress and still win.

That scenario is a precarious handicapping game to play. Often, projecting a “bounce” is highly predictable. What is unknowable with any certitude is how high that bounce will be. It’s a game that your not-so-humble handicapper doesn’t care to play.

So, there’s that to consider, plus the highly likely lack of value since anyone who saw the Preakness had to be impressed with First Dude. He was almost 24-1 in Baltimore; he’ll be somewhere around 4-1 on Long Island.

Make no mistake: First Dude, win or lose, is the key to Belmont 142. The speed, power, athleticism and Forego physique are all there. He gives the appearance of a quintessential Belmont winner. But looks often deceive.

When asked at Wednesday’s post draw about the possibility of a bounce, trainer Dale Romans said: “With a horse like this, you’re not going to skip a classic race.”

If he were mine, I wouldn’t dream of skipping this dance, either. Here, then, one handicapper’s assessment of Saturday’s Belmont field, listed in post position order:

1. Dave In Dixie (20-1): It may be that trainer John Sadler has developed a case of Triple Crown fever. We can find no compelling reason to run the colt in this spot. Since he made a promising season’s debut when second to Coracortado, remaining on our radar for his next two starts, he has shown little or no development and is very light on 12-furlong pedigree.

2. Spangled Star (30-1): Rick Dutrow has a history of running improbable horses in these kinds of races but more often than not they outrun their odds. But not this time, even with Garrett Gomez in the boot. Owner Lawrence Roman also has a history of ambitious placement in high profile races. Spangled Star is the latest example.

3. Uptowncharlybrown (10-1): I get what the excitement is about; the compelling storyline, freshness, a belief that he will run all day, and first-time Kiaran McLaughlin, too. Since I follow the Tampa Bay circuit, I’ve been aware of ‘Charly’ since his impressive debut and subsequent troubled trips in stakes. I believe that with blinkers removed he will run well. The switch to Rajiv Maragh from a cozy inside slot helps further.

4. Make Music For Me (10-1): Horses that run well in the Derby skip the Preakness and race back in the Belmont have, on balance, done well in the modern era. He had the same kind of Derby trouble as did Ice Box, only it doesn’t get as much play. Love the old school workouts over the track and he acts like 12 furlongs are in his wheelhouse. If he only had a tad more pedigree, I could get excited but, alas, he doesn’t.

5. Fly Down (9-2): His Dwyer Stakes win over the track at nine furlongs was first rate, in the mold of a Coastal when the Peter Pan, now off the schedule, was considered THE Belmont prep. The fact that he is 2-for-3 at nine furlongs--eliminated by a tough trip in his Louisiana Derby defeat--augurs well from a condition/experience perspective. Has all the pedigree you could want and benefits from a switch to Johnny Velazquez--and I’m a Jose Lezcano admirer.

6. Ice Box (3-1): Lezcano stays with the deserving Belmont favorite. Has the guts to beat you--witness his Florida Derby--has proven his mettle at the highest levels, owns the bloodlines, and everyone is aware of the Derby debacle. From a performance figure perspective, he rates to move forward off paired lifetime best efforts and favorable spacing. His workout pattern indicates he’s lost nothing off his Derby fastball. Has the look of Belmont 142’s “best horse,” but a deep closer in a virtually paceless field admittedly is cause for concern.

7. Drosselmeyer (12-1): Impressed with his potential off an eye-pleasing nine furlong allowance score in January then was a short horse in the Risen Star, despite needing the graded earnings. He was a short horse. It was now or never in the Louisiana Derby. Kent Desormeaux was brilliant from post 13--could not have scripted the trip better--until headstretch. Remaining inside, the long-striding one-paced runner couldn’t accelerate fast enough while in tight on the fence. Was no match for Fly Down with less than perfect Desormeaux handling but now gets a karma change to Mike Smith, owns strong workline, and Belmont’s wide expanse gives him a puncher’s chance at a price.

8. Game On Dude (10-1): From winning Preakness connections, this is another entrant that acts as if he’s been waiting to run a mile and a half. He owns a strange style; a kind of one-paced tactical-speed type that will grind you down. From a performance figure perspective, his Lone Star Derby was very good. Owns enough pedigree, and his improved, lifetime best effort was incremental and fairly competitive in this group. Going in the right direction, he could prove the value here.

9. Stately Victor (15-1): A little interesting. The knocks are his lifetime wins came on grass and Polytrack. The plusses are a visually impressive Blue Grass score and his Derby, where he was beaten less than nine lengths despite considerable rough-housing in the early running. He’s an impressive physical specimen, has worked very well in the interim, and might be the most stoutly bred runner of Belmont 142.

10. Stay Put (20-1): Can’t blame them for taking a shot, owning three wins from seven lifetime starts, suffering two impossibly wide trips when beaten in his only two stakes appearances. In those seven starts he’s never failed to make up ground through the stretch or take a backward step on performance figures. All his wins were beneath Jamie Theriot and owns enough pedigree for the trip. The knocks are his being a deep closer, with a rider lacking experience at nuanced Belmont Park.

11. First Dude (7-2): The poster child for demonstrating the differences between handicapping and wagering. For the handicapper, what’s left to discuss? He’s the fastest horse on the Equiform scale, is a huge, athletic animal, with stout pedigree and a heart as big as Belmont. But he’ll be a lot lower than his Preakness odds here and he rates to regress of his 10-length improvement on relatively short rest. For the long term, he is a good selection but a bad bet.

12. Interactif (12-1): On the plus side, he’s classy, with four graded stakes placings including two wins, is bred for the distance and switches to Javier Castellano, the hottest rider in New York. He’s trained by the ubiquitous Mr. Pletcher, a 2010 karma chameleon who’s broken through this year with his first Kentucky Derby and Met Mile victories. The biggest factor, however, is that the hard-trying bay has touted himself with brilliant recent workouts. That alone makes him intriguing.

Clearly, the three favorites look like the best horses on paper but this event is more wide open than it appears at first blush. Tomorrow, we’ll try to fashion a winning play. Look for it in the Feature Race Analysis on Saturday. Meanwhile, we’re going on record with:

1. Ice Box. 2. First Dude. 3. Fly Down. 4. Game On Dude.

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