Friday, July 03, 2009

Regulators Fiddle While Horseplayers Burn

SARATOGA SPRINGS, NY, July 2, 2009--At Monday’s press conference trumpeting the upcoming 2009 Saratoga race meet, NYRA President Charlie Hayward announced new directives sanctioned by the State Racing and Wagering Board Chairman that would allow superfecta wagering with fewer betting interests.

For thoroughbred tracks in the state, the Board has given permission to conduct superfecta wagering with seven program betting interests. The wager would remain viable if there is a late scratch after the horses leave the paddock that reduces the field to six interests.

As racetrackers say, “close, but no cigar.”

This SRWB rules change doesn’t go far enough and hence is less significant than it should be. Indeed, it’s an improvement. It makes it unnecessary for the racing office to hustle some no-chance entrant just to make a potential superfecta race go, and saves the tracks and the state money by making refunds in the above scenario a non-starter.

Hayward also indicated that the Board is working on changes that will affect Pick 3, Pick 4 and Pick 6 wagering and, most significantly, a rule allowing uncoupled entries in all races. In addition to being a “purse-money-only” handle saver, it also increases field size and wagering in a significant way.

We queried the State Racing and Wagering Board Wednesday regarding multiple-race wagers and the status of allowing uncoupled entries. “It’s not soup yet,” we were told.

I’m aware that good food takes time but this stock has been cooking for some time. A change in the coupled entry rule has been at issue for as many as four years, when then NYRA executive Bill Nader, now with the Hong Kong Jockey Club, was the point man.

How hard is this, really? Senseless delay costs the state’s taxpayers money, although it’s good for job security for political appointees when they can say improvements are in the pipeline. Permitting uncoupled entries, now way past overdue, helps horseplayers and the state alike. Stop “protecting” thinking horseplayers from themselves.

We have often stated here and in other venues that NYRA, with the possible exception of Keeneland’s racing association, has been more responsive to bettors than any other major jurisdiction. Acknowledging that there are more pressing matters at hand, NYRA’s responsiveness to bettors recently has begun to wane.

On this site May 30, we wrote a piece on the handicapping researcher known to his colleagues as “Vinman.” He e-mailed us to say that he had sent a nine page letter to Hayward and COO Hal Handel including 25 pages of attachments with spreadsheets charting betting handle.

Vinman studied the $1 Pick Four and Pick Five at last year’s Oak Tree-at-Santa Anita meet, the 50-Cent Pick 5 at Monmouth Park on Breeders Cup weekend two years ago, and a $2 Pick Six with mandatory payout offered by Hollywood Park. Here were the findings:

The Pick 6 with mandatory payout attracted handle of $3.3 million, a record for a non-Breeders’ Cup pool. After a 50-Cent Pick 5 went un-hit for three consecutive nights at Balmoral, a harness meet, the carryover reached $76,000. Handle on the fourth night was $218,384. The 50-Cent Pick 5 was hit, paying $18,192.70.

Vinman then projected how much wagering would be generated on a 50-Cent Pick 5 at Saratoga extrapolated from 2008 Pick 4 handle. Using the Pick 5 Oak Tree handle as a base and weighing it against the Pick 4 pool as a percentage of handle, an assessment was made of the Pick 5’s popularity.

Based on analysis of the data model above, handle on a Travers day 50-Cent Pick 5 would have reached $389,318. Further, 50-Cent Pick 5 handle for the 2008 meet would have exceeded $100,000 on eight days.

Using supporting data, Vinman, who convinced Nader to move the conclusion of the Pick 6 to the final race on the card because the inevitable dovetailing with bettors hedging wagers in the Pick 4 pool theoretically would--in addition to reducing the handicapping workload--result in increased handle. So he suggested an addition to the 2009 Saratoga betting menu on an experimental basis.

The proposal included a 50-Cent Pick 5 with carryover; a 50-Cent Trifecta, popular in many jurisdictions; a $1 Pick 6 with mandatory payout and a 50-Cent “Daily Showdown” with carryover, modeled on the West’s “Place All.” He reasoned that the many casual fans attracted to Saratoga are intimidated by handicapping and betting. Fractional wagering would keep costs to a minimum during the learning process.

As stated, changes in the wagering menu requires SRWB approval. No one can blame the association for not wanting to confuse the uncoupled entry issue with how wagering works. Uncoupling entries have been a priority for years but hasn’t been achieved due to unconscionable SRWB foot-dragging.

Our original blog received many comments: Patrick Lamoreux, a parimutuel data analyst at Prairie Meadows racetrack, wanted a copy of Vinman’s spreadsheet data, as did Bruce, “Indulto” and “rwwuple,” who has “supported a $1-Pick 6 with mandatory payout for some time…”

Said Paul Stone: “Fractional betting is the best idea racing has had in decades. The propositions advanced are intellectually inspiring. Reducing cost through fractional betting may ignite some interest…Saratoga attracts many novices…”

Bruce thinks Vinman “may have only scratched the surface of 21st Century betting options…” Anthony Kelzenberg, who knows Vinman since the early 1990s, described him as “a guy who loves racing and is a real ‘analyst’ [having] a lot of integrity…”

Hopefully, he’s a man of patience, too. As of Wednesday Vinman’s yet to receive a reply from the NYRA, one way or another. Thank goodness he didn’t try to contact the SRWB, as I did Wednesday.
No one’s gotten back to me, either. Sometimes, a non-response says it all.


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