Wednesday, July 16, 2008
When All Else Fails, Blame the Jockey
Windsor Locks, Ct., July 12, 2008--Joe Rocco, how could you do that to me? What, you thought a handicapper might blame his own self?
Joe, not that you should lose any sleep because I failed to hit the board in the Connecticut OTB handicapping contest. But it would have been nice had you won a couple of races on Saturday’s Delaware program.
Delaware was one of five regional contest tracks, along with Belmont Park, Monmouth, Philadelphia Park and Suffolk Downs. Each contestant had a $100 starting bankroll to wager straight; win, place and show only, at minimum 10 $10 bets. After that, it was any amount goes.
I looked at all five tracks the day before, seeking playable races, i.e., horses with a good chance to win at double-digit odds. Many of the races I chose had three, four or five conceivable winners. The horse that fell through the parimutuel cracks would be my play.
At decision time, I chose to pass the Belmont race; good move, saved money. I skipped one of the two Monmouth races, another good move, but, on my last play of the contest, I tapped out on 20-1 Jolly Good Guy, a five-claimer who chased the pace to the three-sixteenths pole, where he began running sideways.
At Suffolk, I passed on the first of two plays, the 12-1 Hubbard, bet down to 9-2, and a winner, after being placed first when he got bumped and crowded the length of the stretch by the odds-on favorite. But I did bet Smarty Brown, a 5K maiden-claimer, who finished in mid-pack after showing early speed at 17-1.
But the day was over long before the finale from Suffolk. The tone was set on the very first wager, a wide open maiden race on turf at Philly Park.
We thought four horses could win it. Two were bet too heavily; the others went off at 5-1 and 8-1, respectively. I bet the better value, the 5-1 shot. The 8-1 shot paid $19.60; the 5-1 chance finished second.
Check, please.
In the fourth at Philadelphia, Designer Stripes finished third in a six-horse field at 7-1. In the fifth, Smart Alliance was third at 6-1 (should have passed, in retrospect, he was 12-1 on the early line). In the next race, Sir Togo finished third in a six-horse field at 9-1.
This was getting old. I just couldn’t get off. One win and you could start thinking parlays of shorter-priced but still bettable horses. I was making mini-dollars at the windows, taking logical horses over the price plays in exactas and trifectas.
In the seventh, 7-1 Cimmeron Sue clipped heels and Jose Flores lost his irons. In the next race, Baloobas was fourth of six at 6-1.
But I really liked a horse in the ninth. I thought Indian Reef, 10-1 on the early line and breaking from post 10 at a mile on the turf, could be a huge price because of the wide post. His competition was anchored on the also-eligible list.
However, Gran Cesare got in from the AEs and, from post 10, beats Indian Reef with a rail run on the far turn while my 10.50-1 chance cranked up five wide after leaving from post nine. The 11-10 exacta with the 3-1 favorite was good for $69, but I was still zero-for-the-contest.
Ultimately, all but one price play finished in the money at Philadelphia. Maybe I should have been thinking show bets which, ironically, was the partial tack taken by the eventual winner. And this was the point where Rocco might have helped out a little.
It was about mid-tournament and some of the better races (read better prices) were coming up, like the fifth from Delaware Park. Rocco was on a sharp speedster named Pattysbuddy from the rail, 12-1 on the early line. I was so confident I didn’t welcome the late scratch of the formidable early favorite, Run With Me; it would hurt the odds.
Actually, Rocco rode the hair off his mount, rating him well in quick fractions while under pressure, pulling the rug on the field into the lane and looked home free--until Tony Dutrow’s Light Sentence nailed him in the final strides. At 7.70-1, and at a critical juncture, a win would have put me in position to do some damage.
But it really was the ninth at the Stanton track that was my personal feature of the day. In the 1-1/16 miles maiden turf route, I thought half the 12-horse field could win. Certainly one would fall between the cracks, and one did, Danny Furr’s Great Kate Above, Rocco up.
No one without gray hair would know this but Furr--a good old boy in the best sense of that term--was a long-time assistant to MacKenzie Miller. “Mack” Miller was a 1987 Hall of Fame inductee and a turf ace. Great Kate Above, 15-1 on the early line, opened at 30-1 and virtually stayed there. I bet enough to put me into the lead as no one had broken the contest open yet.
The filly ran great but finished third. The chart footnote…“made a four wide middle move then was gaining ground late…” doesn’t quite get it. Rocco technically did nothing wrong, but he could have been a little more patient with his rally, waiting for the straight instead of losing valuable ground on the final turn.
The 32.20-1 chance lost place by a half length (costing me a real-dollars exacta), the whole race by a tad more than two lengths. The winner was a 7-5 first-time starter from the Graham Motion barn. (Rain Date will probable ship to Saratoga and beat me there, too).
Mack McClyment of Forrest Hills, Md. finished first after betting $34 to win on Thou Swell in the eighth from Belmont, the winner paying $45.60. Good for him; I don’t even like the horse now.
In the final analysis it was a fun day at a very nicely appointed facility. We’ll point towards New Haven next winter, where Oaklawn Park is not expected to be among the contest tracks. That means no Joe Rocco, who won the Delaware finale on Saturday with Dixies Valentine by eight lengths, paying $3. Big deal.
Written by John Pricci
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