Friday, November 28, 2008
Today’s Stakes Programs: Past, Present and Future
South Ozone Park, NY, November 29, 2008--I’m a little jazzed about the middle of this big holiday weekend. Not only is it the best racing weekend remaining in 2008 but it should provide a glimpse as to what to expect next season.
The focal point is the youngsters, spearheaded by Churchill Downs’ Stars of Tomorrow program--all two-year-olds all the time on the closing-day program--Aqueduct’s Remsen and Demoiselle and Hollywood Park’s Miesque Stakes.
Also of consequence locally is the Grade 1 Cigar Mile. In addition to whatever light Friday’s Clark might have shed on the 2009 handicap division, the class not only is crying out for a leader but looking for any definition at all.
What that means is some members of this year’s much maligned three-year-old class--colts not good enough to be purchased by a sheikh and shuttled off to the breeding shed--must step up. It’s not unreasonable to think that some might do just that.
It’s not likely to be either of the first two. Both are sprint/miler meant; the former a late-runner, the latter being faster but distance challenged. Storm Play could be any kind, as racetrackers say. He’s already won at nine furlongs and all three wins were in fast time.
Harlem Rocker, meanwhile, is a winner at both eight and nine and a half furlongs, but his form and scheduling has been a bit spotty, indicating some nagging issue perhaps. But he appears to be an individual that could improve with age. Which leaves Tale of Ekati.
Barclay Tagg’s colt is nothing if not enigmatic. Some days he leads you to think he’s a world beater. Other days he lifts your wallet. And he needs to show he’s the same class away from Aqueduct and while his Wood score did come at a mile and an eighth, his perceived ability to go farther doesn’t inspire confidence.
Maybe four-year-old Monterey Jazz, an absolute monster winning the G3 Texas Mile by eight lengths but hasn’t run since, is that horse. But he was much better when he got off the synthetic surface and, of course, the Breeders’ Cup returns to Pro-Ride next season. But first things first, like today’s Grade 1.
For myself and many others, though, it’s about the babies of either sex and next year’s classics. There are five juvenile races in New York, an even dozen at Churchill, and three more at Hollywood, which is enough future for anyone.
Aqueduct’s Remsen and Demoiselle are interesting, requiring horses advanced enough in fitness to handle nine furlongs.
At first blush, fans of Sky Diva might have been disappointed with her Juvenile Fillies effort but they shouldn’t be. She moved forward on the synthetic track while finishing third by three lengths to the remarkable certain champion, Stardom Bound, despite spotting her experience in a less than perfect-trip try. Sky Diva acts like she wants to run all day, resembling more her grand-sire (Unbridled) than sire (Sky Mesa). She’s supposed to win this.
The Remsen is more challenging. On Equiform performance figures, not so much. Old Fashioned, shipping in for Larry Jones, is a layover. And Jones, considering his entrant goes second-time Lasix, second-time long, and moving into graded stakes company, is profitable in all relevant categories.
But there are interesting alternatives. Idol Maker earned an excellent figure with winning his debut at Belmont going a mile, showing good energy distribution for Todd Pletcher. Rip Rap Rip is not as fast as either, but has an experience edge and never has gone backwards. American Dance is slower still, but is learning quickly.
At Churchill, the Golden Rod and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, like their Big A counterparts, is Grade 2 but each is a sixteenth of a mile shorter. The Golden Rod should yield plenty of clues about heavy favorites Sara Louise (8-5) and Dream Express (9-5).
Sara Louise comes up to the added distance perfectly with the benefit of a win over the track for Dale Romans and Robby Albarado. Like Sky Diva, Dream Express moved forward in the Juv’ Fillies and, like Stardom Bound, came from the clouds for second. She has an Equiform edge, 75 to 73, but never has run on dirt. Kent Desormeaux rides back for Ken McPeek.
Conservatively, half of the 10-colt Jockey Club can win the wide open two-turner. Capt. Candyman Can (8-5) will try to sweep the Iroquois/Jockey Club double for Ian Wilkes and Julien Leparoux, who’s having of a career season
Written by John Pricci
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